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Free agency is a lot like summer. It's long, hot and filled with expectations. Boy, did that sound stupid. Must be too many hours in front of the computer...
Anyway, here's a short list of free agents still on the market as of July 10 who are likely to impact the Rockets and my take on where they might be headed.
The Big Fish
Chris Webber
Position: Power Forward
Current Team: Sacramento Kings
Likely Destination: Sacramento Kings
Price Tag: The Max
What's the deal?
Webber is the big man on campus this offseason and he knows it. The Rockets desperately wanted to be the girl in the bath towel answering the door with the C-Webb prize patrol waiting outside (sorry, ugly metaphor!). That was until Eddie Griffin landed in their laps. The fact is that Webber could fit under our cap but his desire to check out every team before deciding forced the Rockets' hand. Rudy T was said to be thrilled with the way his team played at the end of the year and was content to add Griffin and fellow rookie Terence Morris to that mix. Webber is a terrific player, an all star and nearly league MVP last season, but he won't land in Houston. Despite the rumors swirling around San Antonio, it would still be surprising not to see him back in purple next year.
Antonio Davis
Position: Center/Power Forward
Current Team: Toronto Raptors
Likely Destination: Orlando Magic
Price Tag: $10 million the first year
What's the deal?
Who would've thought that a career 10 point, 7 rebound big guy would command so much in the free agent market? Davis has seen his star rise partly because the free agent pool is so thin and also because teams need big men. Make no mistake, Davis is a solid veteran. He is a tough defender, good rebounder and low post scorer. Think of him as Otis Thorpe without the hands. Davis wants out of Canada, but also wants to play for a good team and get a big raise. Only a couple teams have the cap space to give him the money he wants and a couple can get him out of Canada, but only one can deliver him to a team with a legitimate future: the Rockets. The problem is that he wants a deal starting at $10 million and the Rocks cannot afford that and bring back their own guys. Toronto has said they won't do a sign-and-trade with Orlando where Davis resides and wants to play, but they may have to unless they want Kelvin Cato, Walt Williams and a first round pick in return for Davis. He would look good in pinstripes but only at the right price. A 33-year-old role player doesn't deserve the max.
Next In Line
Eddie Robinson
Position: Small Forward
Current Team: Charlotte Hornets
Likely Destination: Charlotte Hornets
Price Tag: $4.5 million exception
What's the deal?
Robinson is a lean, athletic small forward that is on the list of a number of teams. He is said to be loyal to Charlotte and want to remain but they can only offer him their $4.5 million exception. That probably is enough for Robinson who saw his stock rise with solid play in the Hornets' upset first round series win over the Miami Heat, though he may receive an offer he can't refuse (Atlanta or Chicago?). Teams like his athleticism and he's a good kid. Robinson may take the one-year deal with Charlotte to get closer to those magical Bird rights players covet so he can get the maximum (or close to it) later, but teams are interested. If the Rockets hadn't drafted two small forwards, Robinson could have been an offseason target.
Nazr Mohammed
Position: Center
Current Team: Atlanta Hawks
Likely Destination: Atlanta Hawks
Price Tag: About $5 million
What's the deal?
Mohammed got new life when he was traded to Atlanta in the Dikembe Mutumbo deal last season. As his minutes increased in ATL, so did his production. He boosted his scoring and rebounding numbers in the second half scoring 13 points and grabbing 9 boards per game as a Hawk. With so many teams searching for a solid center, Mohammed is going to get some serious interest. However, Atlanta is said to be desperate to keep him. If he can develop backing up (and at times teamed with) Theo Ratliff, the Hawks have the makings of a formiddible front court despite their awful play last year. Imagine Mohammed, Ratliff and Shareef Abdur Rahim on the front line. Ouch!
Marc Jackson
Position: Center
Current Team: Golden State Warriors
Likely Destination: Golden State Warriors
Price Tag: $5 million
What's the deal?
Jackson came literally out of nowhere last season emerging as a rookie of the year candidate only to see that lost due to an injury. Averaging 13 points and 7 rebounds for the awful Warriors last season put him on many teams' lists this offseason. He is strong, tough and has a nice soft jumper. Despite his talent, most teams will be reluctant to offer an undrafted second-year player more than a $4.5 million exemption. If that is the case, Jackson will probably stay in Oakland. Poor guy.
David Robinson
Position: Center
Current Team: San Antonio Spurs
Likely Destination: San Antonio Spurs
Price Tag: $10 million
What's the deal?
The Robinson situation has quickly gone from ugly to wierd. According to the Spurs, the Admiral had tenatively agreed to take a cut in pay this offseason so SA could re-sign Derrick Anderson. Robinson has said he won't take a cut and would play somewhere else if the Spurs didn't pay him $10 million per season. Further reports surfaced saying the Rockets may have offered him that amount to play in Houston. To add even more confusion, the Spurs appear to be pursuing Webber. Whether they are doing that seriously or just to call D-Rob's bluff is a mystery, but the plot twists in this one are more mysterious than an Agatha Christie novel (no, she isn't Doug Christie's mother!). Despite all the wrangling, the Spurs will probably re-up the Admiral and keep him in San Antonio at a price tag somewhere between the $3 million they want to pay and the $10 million he wants to earn.
The Good Guys
Hakeem Olajuwon
Position: Center
Current Team: Houston Rockets
Likely Destination: Houston Rockets
Price Tag: $7-8 million
What's the deal?
As uncomfortable as they are in San Antonio with Robinson's threats, they can't be any more confused than Rockets' fans are. Olajuwon, the backbone of the franchise, has displayed some disturbing behavior over the past year or so first complaining about his lack of involvement in the offense, then demanding a trade, then alluding to the fact that Rudy T doesn't know how to use big men, then apologizing for everything and playing fairly well down the stretch. The oft-injured legend is on his last legs to be sure. He isn't worth the $10 million he is asking (are he and Robinson discussing what they should make or what?) but he is worth keeping on the roster if that is possible. Of course, he has to first acknowledge the Rockets, which he apparently hasn't. It's still more likely than not that he will end up retiring a Rocket if for no other reason than his free agent value isn't what he thinks it is. The problem is that, while he holds up in his fortress of Sugarland solitude, other key Rockets' free agents could be growing impatient. Dream, you are on the clock.
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Maurice Taylor
Position: Power Forward
Current Team: Houston Rockets
Likely Destination: Houston Rockets
Price Tag: $5-6 million
What's the deal?
Taylor loves Houston. He wants to stay here and has said he won't even discuss contracts with other teams before he talks to the Rockets. Considering that he played for well under market value last season, his current team flirted with the idea of replacing him with Webber and his agent is some guy named David Falk, his stance is remarkable. Taylor began to learn Rudy T's system by the end of last season and started asserting himself. His soft touch would seem a terrific compliment to Griffin and a good way to combat new zone defense rules. The fact is the Rockets love this guy and the feeling is mutual. The players and the coaching staff feel like Taylor has great chemistry on the team and he is nearly a lock to return despite having to wait out the Olajuwon situation.
Shandon Anderson
Position: Shooting Guard
Current Team: Houston Rockets
Likely Destination: Houston Rockets
Price Tag: Early Bird
What's the deal?
Like Taylor, Anderson wants to remain in Houston. There was talk for a while that the Rockets weren't interested in keeping him but that has changed. Anderson can play valuable minutes behind Cuttino Mobley and Griffin and provide solid defense the team needs. Anderson's agent, the much-maligned by fans Dan Fegan, said earlier this year that Anderson would not play for an early Bird contract. However, it would be a shock to see the Rockets pay him more than they are paying Mobley. There are also few teams vying for his services despite his skills, experience and age. Expect Anderson to still be in pinstripes next season playing multiple positions and working hard. He says he is committed to improving his game as well. If he could just get his agent to straighten out Olajuwon's mess.
Moochie Norris
Position: Point Guard
Current Team: Houston Rockets
Likely Destination: Houston Rockets
Price Tag: Early Bird
What's the deal?
Norris not only became the spark plug off the Rockets bench last year, he became a fan favorite. The constantly changing hair styles and the pure love of the game he displayed on the floor was an instant winner. Like Taylor and Anderson, Norris loves it in Houston and his teammates. He has said he will wait to talk to the Rockets before talking to anyone else. If you are another team, don't expect to hear from him. The Rockets can offer him early Bird money, which is great for a backup point guard, and though Dallas has expressed some interest in him, he will remain the Fro Show in Compaq Center next season.
Matt Bullard
Position: Small Forward/Power Forward/Veteran Good Guy
Current Team: Houston Rockets
Likely Destination: Houston Rockets
Price Tag: Veteran's minimum
What's the deal?
With his size and shooting ability, team's will come calling, but Bull is staying a Rocket. He has said as much in several interviews and his gig as the color commentator for the Comets, which he loves, is yet one more reason for him to stay. Bullard has made his home in Houston and will play at least one, probably two, more seasons before turning pro in the broadcast booth. His experience on and off the floor, sense of humor and shooting skills will come in handy. He'll never complain about minutes and help the coaching staff keep things in line. Every team needs a guy like Bullard on the bench and in the locker room.
The Bottom Line
Despite all the talk, most players will stay put unless sign-and-trade deals come down which is fairly likely. Free agency is always trumped up every year as this big fire sale, but it is rare to see players in mass exodus from their current teams with salary structures the way they are in the NBA. The Rockets, whether they are able to land Davis or Webber which is unlikely in both cases, will have a successful offseason if they just bring back their own guys. The draft was the big move for Houston. The biggest mysteries are Webber, Davis, Olajuwon and Robinson. Davis is probably the most likely to move on, but the other three will make it an interesting summer.
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