While injuries depleted the Rockets last season and were the main culprit in keeping them from the playoffs, the fact that the talent level of the team's backcourt dropped faster than Paris Hilton's pants is often overlooked.
The injury loss of Bobby Sura, the rapid decline of Jon Barry and the ill-fated trade of Mike James turned a Rocket strength in 2004-05 into a glaring weakness in 2005-06.
Now, with David Wesley likely to bolt to the Cavs via free agency, what is left today from that 51-win season?
The slim hope that Sura will eventually return, and Rafer Alston.
While the 6-foot-2, 170-pound Alston may not have been acquired as the long-term starter here in Houston, the reality of the situation is that is exactly who the Rockets are currently counting on to take the bulk of the minutes as lead guard.
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| Skip must improve his shooting for the Rockets to be contenders in 2006-07 |
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Last season Rafer was counted on heavily, playing in 63 games and averaging 12.1 points, 6.7 assists and 1.6 steals in very extensive minutes, nearly 39 per night. His turnovers were relatively low, making him the 19th ranked player in assist-to-turnover ratio, about even with the likes of Sam Cassell, Kirk Hinrich and Andre Miller.
So unlike 2004-05, the Rockets finally had a sure-handed point guard who could be counted on to get the ball past half-court under pressure and make the right pass.
For this team, that came at a steep price.
Alston shot an atrocious 37.9% from the floor and just 32.7% from three-point country, marking his fourth straight year of decline from beyond the arc.
It's very easy to point to the injuries of both Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming last season and say that Rafer would obviously shoot much better when the two superstars take the pressure off. After all, this is the same guard who looked fantastic in early February with Yao and T-Mac: He put up 19 points, 8 assists, 5 steals and shot 5-8 from long range in an 87-81 road win against the Sixers and scored 17 points, 13 assists and 5 steals in a road rout of the Clippers.
Unfortunately, those proved to be the exceptions. In 22 games with Yao and T-Mac, Rafer's percentages went down across the board.
| Rafer Alston with or without Yao Ming/Tracy McGrady |
With Both |
22 |
15-7 |
35.4 |
37.4% |
63.9% |
30.3% |
3.8 |
7.2 |
1.55 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
9.0 |
With T-Mac/Without Yao |
11 |
5-6 |
40.4 |
40.5% |
89.5% |
38.5% |
4.8 |
6.7 |
1.73 |
1.9 |
3.5 |
13.1 |
With Yao/Without T-Mac |
21 |
5-16 |
39.6 |
36.8% |
72.9% |
32.7% |
4.0 |
6.2 |
1.33 |
3.1 |
2.0 |
13.1 |
Without Both |
9 |
1-8 |
41.9 |
38.6% |
55.2% |
30.0% |
3.7 |
6.8 |
2.22 |
2.2 |
3.1 |
15.9 |
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Though the sample size is small -- just one season, with a dozen or two games in each case -- Rafer didn't shoot the ball effectively at all with Yao and T-Mac (particularly Yao), despite putting up more shots than anyone besides the two stars and launching more triples (4.5 per night) than anyone, including Wesley.
Keep in mind, the Rockets are not the Phoenix Suns. There is a reason that the team feels Shane Battier is a perfect fit for them. They play tough defense. They run half-court sets. They post Yao up extensively. They rely on efficient outside shooters to make defenses pay for double-teams.
So the way this team is structured around Yao, having double-team kickouts go to a player who is playing 35-40 minutes a game and hitting 30% of his threes is a death sentence to this offense.
So it should come as no surprise that the Rockets went all out to sign Mike James and were crushed when he opted to go to Minnesota. James, who hit nearly 40% from downtown with the Rockets in 04-05 and upped his three-point percentage to an outstanding 44.2% last season with the Raptors, is a better bet to hit a three-pointer than Rafer is to hit a shot from anywhere.
And don't be fooled - James wasn't coming here to play two-guard. The Rockets may have planned to mix it up, giving Rafer solid minutes, but they weren't going to start a pair of 6-foot-2 guards, and James wasn't coming off the bench.
Was 2005-06 an accurate indicator of Rafer Alston's shooting skills, or can he knock down the open three?
There is hope that Rafer is a better shooter than what we saw. Four years ago, playing as a reserve with the Raptors, Rafer hit 39.2% from long range, and followed that up with 37.1% the next year as a starter in Miami. But that was the beginning of a decline and in 6 NBA seasons, the 30-year old has only twice hit better than 40% from the field.
Rafer certainly has his skills as he is a very good playmaker, can run and is a decent thief in the passing lanes, but if his shot efficiency doesn't increase, the Rockets will have to seek change in some form, possibly opening the door for Vassilis Spanoulis or soon-to-be-signed John Lucas III to see increased minutes.
It's worth remembering that Sura, who was a career 32% three-point shooter when he came to Houston, hit 38% from long range in his 64 games with the Rockets' star duo in 2004-05. That should tell you that Bobby either drastically improved or that he saw some of the most open threes of his career with the Rockets. So perhaps Rafer can improve along the same fashion.
However, right now barring improvement, Rafer Alston's point guard skills make him a luxury as a backup and his poor marksmanship makes him a liability as a starter.
