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Answering the Chronicle's 20 Questions
Jeff Balke gives his answers to Jonathan Feigen's 2006-07 Rocket pondering
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2006   5:42 AM CST
By Jeff Balke
Copyright 2006 ClutchFans.net
In Jonathan Feigen's latest blog entry at the Houston Chronicle, the Rockets beat writer ponders 20 questions -- questions that he used on experts that he recently interviewed. I'm no Kreskin, nor am I considered an NBA expert, but I'll attempt to look into my sealed envelope and give some answers to Feigen's queries.

1. Can Rafer Alston shoot a better percentage, particularly on 3s.
Can he? Yes. Will he? Probably. Alston has never shot 40 percent from behind the arc for a season. But for four straight years from 2001 through 2005, he averaged nearly 38 percent from behind the three-point line including two years he played in 80 and 82 games each. Given that history and the fact that he was, at times, one of the only legitimate scoring options on the floor last season, last year would seem to be an anomoly rather than the norm. With the return of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming plus the addition of shooters like Shane Battier, I have to believe Alston will improve on his poor shooting season in 2005-06.

Rafer Alston Houston Rockets
2. Does he have to? Or maybe that should be, how important is his shooting? His job is to be a quarterback. If he does that well enough, maybe it won't matter too much if he cannot gun his way around defenses ganging up on Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady.
I don't think he has to shoot a lot of threes, but I do think he has to hit a high percentage of them when he is open. Being a good quarterback on the floor is his first job at all times this season without question. But, if McGrady and Yao stay healthy, he is going to be left open which means he needs to hit shots to keep the defense honest.

3. Can Alston average 10 assists per game, assuming the scorers are healthy?
In a horrible year last year for scoring, Alston still managed 6.7 assists per game. It would seem natural to extrapolate that with healthy players on the floor, he'll get more opportunities for assists. But, averaging 10 assists for the season, no matter who is on the floor with you, isn't easy. Trivia: Since the 2000-01 season, how many different players have averaged 10 assists or more for the year? Don't go looking it up. The answer: two. Steve Nash did it three times and Andre Miller did it once. Jason Kidd led in three of those years, but only managed 9.8 in the 2000-01 season. It's difficult to average 10 assists for a season and I just don't see Alston doing it.

Besides, it's actually more important that he continues to rank highly in assist-to-turnover ratio. He was in the top 20 last year despite also being in the top 20 in minutes played. If he can continue that, the number of assists will not be nearly as important.

4. Is Shane Battier a four? He's not going to shut down the studs. They don't shut down each other. But can he make it tough enough to get the ball inside to make up for a lack of size once teams get it there?
Personally, I think he is and I think he can handle fours on the block. Setting aside Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett and Elton Brand, very few guys at the position are legit fours in the west. Dirk Nowitzki and Shawn Marion, for example, are likely better guarded by a big, strong three like Battier than by a four like Juwan Howard. Plus, forcing big men like Duncan and Brand to play on the perimeter when Battier is out there provides much needed spacing and Jeff Van Gundy has said that he wants Yao to be surrounded with three-point shooters at every position when he is on the floor.

5. Is Tracy McGrady a two? Barring Bonzi Wells signing with the Rockets, I would not be surprised at all if the Rockets finish games with McGrady in the backcourt and Battier and Juwan Howard both on the court. But can he play (which really means defend) guards full-time?
This is the one designation that I really don't see making a significant difference. Battier will take the other team's best player regardless of where McGrady lines up in the offense. Even if they do finish games with Feigen's suggested lineup, McGrady will spend more time on the weaker offensive player than Battier will anyway. When Battier isn't in there, I think the defending job falls to Snyder as well.

6. Who is the backup point? Unless Bob Sura comes back, which is a question in itself, I'm guessing Vassilis Spanoulis, but it's awfully tempting to put John Lucas' outstanding shot on the court.
I think Sura is done. I wish he weren't, but I don't see him coming back. As a result, I think Spanoulis is the guy. He has that toughness and skill with the ball Van Gundy likes. He's big for a one giving him size on opposing guards and can hit the three. Lucas will be an intriguing player to watch, particularly with the accuracy of his shot. My guess is that Van Gundy will lean towards him early given his experience in the NBA, however limited it may be. But V-Span has the look of a guy ready to contribute at the point in the NBA.

Vassilis Spanoulis Houston Rockets
7. Can Spanoulis play two (which really means can he defend two)? That would seem a way to get Lucas on the court.
I seriously doubt that he can guard NBA twos for any stretch of time. As hard nosed as he is, European players struggle to defend quicker, more athletic guards in the NBA when they can match up with them in size and V-Span doesn't even match their size. We've heard about Van Gundy's reluctance to play undersized shooting guards after David Wesley's difficulties the past two seasons. I would imagine that Luther Head and Snyder will get the most time at two with McGrady.

8. Can Spanoulis and Lucas defend well enough to play much, much less together?
At the point, I think both can defend well enough to get playing time. Frankly, they have to. Lucas is quick and Spanoulis is big. That gives the Rockets options depending on who they face. I really don't think either will get a lot of consistent minutes this season. Both are young and developing, but need experience at this level. They'll likely split 10-15 minutes per night backing up Alston.

9. Is Kirk Snyder the answer at two? This is a key season for him and -- again, barring the addition of Wells -- he could be as big a key as any for the Rockets.
I don't know if he is the ultimate answer, but he is going to be a welcome addition on the defensive side of the ball. I really think that he is an upgrade defensively from Wesley and Head. However, I question his ability to be consistent on the offensive end. If he has any kind of consistency from long range, he will help this team significantly. If he is off on his shot, no matter how good he is defensively, he could become a liability on offense. Ideally, you get James Posey but with a more consistent jumper. But, until he gets some games under his belt, I don't think anyone will know.

10. Will Steve Novak play? I'm thinking he plays very little.
I actually disagree. Van Gundy has made it clear he wants shooters at the four. He's said this in numerous interviews over the summer and the drafting of Novak goes straight to that philosophy. I think Van Gundy really relied on Scott Padgett for that long range shooting touch from a big man and Novak is his attempt to find a young Padgett or Matt Bullard type. While I don't think he'll get big minutes, I could see him getting 8-12 minutes per game. If his shot falls, it could be towards the higher end of that range by the end of the season.

11. Where does Chuck Hayes fit in? If Battier plays some four and Howard still plays big minutes, how do the Rockets get Hayes involved?
Hayes probably has the greatest chance of losing playing time with Battier on board. He is just too small to run out there at the five spot and, despite his hustle on the boards, he is an offensive liability. The four is a huge question mark for this team going into training camp unless Battier becomes an every-night performer at that spot. I like the hustle Hayes exhibits on the floor, but his skill set is just lacking and if he is getting big minutes by the end of the year, the Rockets are probably not a very good team.

12. Does Dikembe Mutombo have another high-energy season left?
I wish he did, but I doubt it. I have the feeling he will be a modern-day version of Charles "Old Man River" Jones, who spelled Hakeem Olajuwon for 3-5 minutes every couple of games during the championship years. Mutumbo has averaged 15 minutes per season with the Rockets, but played in only 64 games last year despite Yao missing a bunch of games. I just don't see him improving on those numbers at all, which makes it even more imperative for Yao to remain healthy.

13. Who makes the team? Again, barring Bonzi Wells addition, it would seem Casey Jacobsen and Kelenna Azubuike are battling for the final roster spot. Azubuike is more athletic and was reliably productive in the D-League, but Jacobsen brings shooting range.
I think Jacobsen is the odds-on favorite. He has experience and, most importantly, a steady shot from long range. There is no question they could use Azubuike's athleticism, but they need the shooting more.

Tracy McGrady Houston Rockets
14. Is Tracy McGrady ready to reclaim a place among the top few players in the league?
Yes. I honestly believe this is McGrady's bounceback year. He won't challenge for the scoring title, but he completely altered his exercise and conditioning routine over the summer to emphasize core muscles and improve conditioning. I may be wrong, but I believe he and Yao will be on the floor together in 70 plus games this season, making them dangerous no matter who their supporting cast may be.

15. Are the Rockets any better equipped to handle time without one of their stars?
Unfortunately, I don't think so. They have filled the team with solid role players, but most of them have significant question marks to address this season. And none of them have the star potential or ability to carry the team like Yao or McGrady. As a result, they won't win much without both of their stars on the floor.

16. How can I have gone so long without bringing Yao Ming into this?
Honestly, I don't know. :)

17. Will Yao be the NBA's dominant center?
I think he already is. His game is not overpowering like Shaquille O'Neal or high-flying like Amare Stoudamire, who is a transplanted power forward anyway. But, he is the most consistent and will demonstrate that again this year.

18. If he is, will he be recognized as the NBA's dominant center?
No, for many of the reasons I mentioned. Look, the national media still refers to him as "Ming" even though it has been explained over and over that his surname is actually Yao. We're talking about national broadcast and print media outlets calling the guy by the wrong name and stats services listing him alphabetically in the "M" section after four full seasons in the league. How can we expect them to suddenly discover the guy has skill? Frankly, if I hear one more "he needs a mean streak" comment from a national "expert", I'm going to punch Charlie Rosen in his fat, Van Gundy-hating face.

19. Do the Rockets need Yao to dominate or will a return to his post All Star form be sufficient?
He does not need to dominate the way Hakeem or Shaq have in the past. If he did, it would be nothing but positive for the team. But, for him to average 20 points and 10 rebounds plus a night is more than sufficient as long as McGrady remains healthy. Consistency is the key for Yao. Being able to remain on the floor for long periods without getting winded and avoiding injury are the first orders of business. Staying out of foul trouble is second. Lastly, he must not disappear for entire games or long stretches for the Rockets to be successful. If he can avoid those pitfalls, dominance on the kind of scale we've seen from other superstar centers in the past just isn't necessary.

20. If they remain healthy, if McGrady takes a place among the league's best, if Yao is as good as he was post toe surgery, if Snyder is solid, if Alston takes care of and effectively distributes the ball and if Sura comes back or Spanoulis or Lucas is a reliable backup, are the Rockets battling for a playoff spot, a solid playoff team, a contender or a champion?
If all of that falls into place, they are a contender. They don't have the kind of depth or the kind of talent across the board to stay with great teams and make them championship material. But, if everything mentioned here falls into place, they will be tough to beat.

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