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The pain of Houston's collapse in the season finale in Dallas has started to dissipate for fans, but it remains to be seen how deeply the Rockets were cut.
The demotion from the #2 seed down to #5 leaves the Rockets scrambling, and as they open their first round series tonight, the question is both obvious and simple.
Can they win in Portland?
The Rockets' only dance with the Blazers there came just one week into the regular season -- a 101-99 Houston loss. Sure, they were robbed by Brandon Roy's personal overtime, but so much has changed since then.
Enter Greg Oden for Portland. Exit Tracy McGrady (who scored 30 points that night) and Rafer Alston for Houston. Enter Von Wafer.
You just have to throw that game out.
Portland is another animal at the Rose Garden. They went 34-7 there -- only the Lakers are better at home out West. The two biggest reasons they're a different home to road team are Roy (50.1% from the field at home and 46% on the road) and Rudy Fernandez (45.1% to 40.1%), with Oden (10.1 points to 7.7 points) not far behind.
You haven't heard much about the "depth perception" problem at the Toyota Center lately, have you? That's was T-Mac's top excuse for the team's struggles at home, but the Rockets have become an extremely efficient team in front of their fans.
The Rockets have won 18 of their last 20 at home. Since the trade deadline, they have shot an amazing 48% at the Toyota Center and have held opponents to a crippling 41.4% field goal percentage -- numbers that shatter the home pattern they established the previous few years.
However, the Rockets have downgraded on the road.
McGrady excelled when checked into a hotel room, leading the Rockets to 24-17 records the past two seasons away from the Toyota Center. This year the Rockets were just 19-20, and just 7-6 post-deadline.
Their road defense in particular slipped -- they allowed opponents to hit at a near-45% clip since the deadline.
Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are going to score points. Limiting those guys will be key, but you won't completely stop them. For the Rockets, they absolutely must contain Fernandez and especially the 6-foot-9 Travis Outlaw, who presents some matchup problems.
Chuck Hayes should see increased minutes to give Aldridge a bother, but I think the biggest key role player is going to be Aaron Brooks, who shot the ball very well in three games against the Blazers this season (16 points on 43.9% from the floor). Brooks has been struggling with his confidence and the playoffs aren't usually the antidote, but this is a matchup that he can exploit.
But putting aside which role players are going to make a difference, it really comes down to Yao Ming for Houston.
How many times have you heard someone say, "Hey, remember when Hakeem Olajuwon put up 22 points against the Clippers in February?"
Not too often.
But his rejections of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in the playoffs? His domination of David Robinson in the Western Conference Finals? His thumping of Shaquille O'Neal for 35 a night in the NBA Finals? You've probably heard quite a bit about those.
This is Year Seven. This is Yao's time. He must make his name in the postseason. He has not performed well against Portland this year (16.3 points on 42.1% shooting), but I believe he will step up in this series. He has to do that for the Rockets to advance.
A couple of weeks ago, my wife (who doesn't really follow basketball) casually told some family friends that my schedule opens up more the first week of May because "that's when the Rockets are done playing."
She wasn't joking. She didn't even understand when I looked at her wide-eyed. She just was going by the internal clock established season after season the past 12 years.
It's time for that garbage to end.
Yes, just about every analyst and writer has turned their back on the Rockets, citing homecourt as the reason Houston lost their path to the Western Conference Finals and will be just another first round casualty.
I agree it will be a tough assignment, but I think these Rockets get it done in this series. Artest recently has played better on the road than at home (where he struggles) and Houston has come away with a few big road wins (@Boston and @New Orleans come to mind) this season. I see Rick Adelman leaving his old stomping grounds with one win through the first five, then taking care of business at home all along the way.
Rockets in 6.
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