Last fall, the Houston Rockets made an impressive run to the semifinals of the annual Emirates NBA Cup. That in-season tournament run concluded with a last-second home win over the Golden State Warriors in a thrilling quarterfinal and a competitive semifinal loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Las Vegas.

Both were single elimination games, for tournament purposes, and the added intensity may have helped a young Rockets team as they geared up for an eventual playoff appearance.

In 2025, however, a return trip to the knockout rounds is becoming unlikely.

In a grouping that some are calling the “group of death,” the Rockets took an 11-point loss in Friday’s game at San Antonio, their first of 2025 NBA Cup play.

So, going forward, Houston’s margin of error (for tournament purposes) is minimal.

Only four teams per conference advance to the eight-team quarterfinals in December, with each conference featuring the winner of its three groups and a “wild card” — i.e. the team with the best record and point differential among second-place finishers.

Based on that high threshold and the small number of teams, every team that advanced to the 2024 knockout rounds went at least 3-1 in group-stage play.

So, for all intents and purposes, the Rockets likely need to sweep their remaining three group games — at home on Nov. 14 and Nov. 21 versus the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets, and at Golden State on Nov. 26 — to have a chance of advancing.

But they also likely need to win at least one of those by a large margin, since they’re currently at a -11 point differential. They would also lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Spurs.

Right now, the Spurs and Blazers are tied atop the group at 1-0, though San Antonio currently holds the tiebreaker based on differential (+11 vs. +2). The Nuggets (1-1, +23) are in third, while the Rockets (0-1, -11) and Warriors (0-1, -25) are tied for last.

For tiebreaker purposes, the 25-point win that Denver had over Golden State (playing without Steph Curry due to illness) could loom large.

Long story short, the Rockets almost certainly need to sweep their final three games to have a chance of advancing out of Group C, and at least one of them may need to come by a large margin. It’s not impossible, but it’s a heavy lift.

As for the 2025-26 regular season, Houston (5-3) had its five-game winning streak snapped with Friday’s loss. Should the Rockets not advance in NBA Cup play, they would have two games added to their schedule in the week of Dec. 9-16 versus West rivals who they are currently slated to play only three times. One would be at home, and the other on the road.

The possible opponent pool would consist of the Thunder, Warriors, Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers — and since these would be non-Cup matchups, it would have to be opponents who were also eliminated in group-stage play.

For the Rockets and other teams across the league, those matchups and dates will be announced after the Nov. 28 conclusion of all 2025 NBA Cup group games (schedule).

Just prior to training camp, the Houston Rockets lost veteran point guard Fred VanVleet (right knee ACL repair) to a potentially season ending injury.

That development led many observers around the league to speculate that Houston might pursue an external upgrade at point guard.

Yet, six games into the 2025-26 season, the Rockets (4-2) own the NBA’s best offense. They also have the majority of their point-guard reps going to Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, two promising young talents who should only improve as the year progresses.

With that in mind, even as tensions seemingly rise in Memphis between the Grizzlies and two-time All-Star Ja Morant, it doesn’t seem as though Houston is interested in pursuing a trade (should the 26-year-old eventually hit the market).

The Athletic’s Sam Amick writes:

The Grizzlies’ next opponent, the Houston Rockets, need a point guard after losing Fred Van Vleet to a torn ACL in the preseason… but, per a team source, are unlikely to pursue him.

The are, of course, some extracurricular concerns involving Morant.

But from a Houston perspective, the logic appears to be basketball-related.

The Rockets have an elite offense, as is, so why would GM Rafael Stone bring in a high-usage player who would potentially take away touches and playmaking opportunities from the likes of Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Alperen Sengun?

The Rockets also expect VanVleet back at some point, and by the start of the 2026-27 season at the latest. Morant is under contract through the 2027-28 campaign, and historically, he’s a significantly higher-usage player than VanVleet.

Should the on-court results significantly change, it’s possible that Stone and the Rockets could revisit the Morant option by the in-season trade deadline of Feb. 5, 2026. But based on what we know now, it doesn’t appear likely that Houston will be involved in any bidding.

HOUSTON — Amen Thompson may not look like a traditional point guard, but he’s filling in capably for the Rockets in the absence of veteran Fred VanVleet.

The Rockets (3-2) entered Monday’s home game versus Dallas (2-4) on a three-game winning streak, and their 22-year-old rising star was +77 when playing during those games.

For the season, Thompson is averaging 15.0 points (46.7% FG), 6.0 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 2.6 turnovers per game, and the versatile 6-foot-7 prospect remains best known for his defense (Thompson earned NBA All-Defensive First Team honors last season).

Yet, in pregame comments from Toyota Center, Mavericks head coach Jason Kidd — a Hall of Fame point guard from his NBA playing days — went out of his way to praise Thompson’s abilities on offense.

When asked about Thompson’s defense, Kidd replied:

He’s playing the game at a very high level, not just on defense but on the offensive end, too. Driving the ball, and putting a lot of pressure on the defense at the rim.

I know everyone talks about his defense, but the way he’s handling the ball, it puts a lot of pressure (on the opponent).

Houston continues to rank No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating, so Thompson’s individual contributions are clearly making it work for the Rockets as a team, as well.

The Rockets are without Jabari Smith Jr. (right ankle sprain) in Monday’s game, so Thompson started alongside Kevin Durant, Josh Okogie, Tari Eason, and Alperen Sengun.

With Wednesday’s 139-121 victory at Toronto, the Rockets (2-2) secured their first winning streak of the 2025-26 campaign and are now NBA’s top-rated offense of the young season.

Featuring Dave Hardisty, Ben DuBose, and Paulo Alves, our “ClutchFans Live” postgame show recaps all the key storylines from that showing against the Raptors.

Discussion topics include big scoring games from Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr.; a dominant rebounding performance, led by interior strength from Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun; a subpar shooting night by Reed Sheppard; and potential concerns on defense, where the Rockets currently rank in the bottom half of the league.

In the win at Toronto (box score), Durant, Smith, Sengun, and Amen Thompson combined for a whopping 92 points, with each shooting at least 50% from the field.

It’s been a bumpy start, and it wasn’t exactly the 1996 Bulls on the other end, but the Rockets got their first win of the season Monday night.

Tari Eason broke out with 22 points — 20 in the first half — as the Rockets pulled away late first quarter and never looked back.

Alperen Sengun scored 21 points, hitting a pair of triples, Kevin Durant added 19 and Amen Thompson was a +33 in 25 minutes, handing out eight assists to zero turnovers.

Ben DuBose and I talked Rockets after the game — starting Josh Okogie over the ‘Double Big’, Tari’s breakout and Amen’s solid point guard showing.