Entering Thanksgiving week, all 30 teams have at least one of their four group-stage games remaining in Emirates NBA Cup 2025 action. Some have two.

But for the Houston Rockets (10-4 on the 2025-26 regular season, 1-2 in Cup play), elimination appears almost inevitable after Friday’s group-stage loss to the Denver Nuggets.

To explain why, let’s look at the Cup standings entering the week:

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After their winning their group in the 2024 NBA Cup, the Rockets have already lost the possibility of doing so in 2025. Even if the Rockets win their group-stage finale at Golden State on Wednesday night, Houston’s best-case outcome is a 2-2 mark.

The only way 2-2 would be tied for the Group C lead is if Portland loses at home to San Antonio on Wednesday, followed by the Spurs winning at Denver two nights later. Without that combination of results, at least one of the Trail Blazers and Nuggets would have three group-stage wins, which inherently eliminates Houston.

But even if that unlikely 2-2 scenario somehow played out, the Rockets would be 1-2 against the other three teams in that 2-2 tie. The Spurs and Nuggets would each be 2-1, thus eliminating Houston as a potential group winner.

So, Group C is off the table.

Mathematically, the Rockets do remain alive for the wild-card slot, which goes to the top second-place finisher in each conference. For example, if this week’s games go according to the Vegas odds, it’s quite possible that the Spurs could defeat Portland but lose to Denver, creating a three-way tie between the Rockets, Trail Blazers, and Spurs at 2-2. Since each team would be 1-1 against the other two, head-to-head, it would come down to point differential — and Houston is well ahead of Portland (-18) and currently tied with San Antonio (+10) there.

Should Houston win that tiebreaker, the Rockets would finish second in in Group C. But looking at the remainder of the West, it’s unlikely for that to be enough to earn the wild card.

For starters, if any second-place team in Group A or Group B gets to three wins, the Rockets are automatically eliminated. Last season, both wild-card teams went 3-1 in group play.

But even if 2-2 somehow becomes enough for a tie, the point differential of the Minnesota Timberwolves (2-1, +53) and Oklahoma City Thunder (2-0, +63) will be difficult to overcome. At the moment, those teams — who play each other on Wednesday — are 43 and 53 points ahead of the Rockets, respectively.

So, in order for Houston’s 2-2 mark to somehow be enough to advance, the Rockets would need to make up at least 43 combined points between the final margin of their road game against the Warriors and the remaining group games for the Timberwolves and Thunder.

To say the least, that’s a tall order.

As a result, while not mathematically eliminated just yet, the odds are overwhelmingly against the Rockets advancing to the eight-team knockout phase.

There could, however, be some consolation. Should the Rockets improbably advance to the knockout rounds as a wild card, they would play on the road in the quarterfinal round. From there, should they win, their next game would be in Las Vegas for a neutral-site semifinal.

On the other hand, if the Rockets are eliminated, they would have two games added to their schedule versus West rivals who they are currently slated to play only three times (and not the usual four for most same-conference teams). These add-on games, which would be played during the week of Dec. 9-16 allow all teams to finish at 82 regular-season games in the final 2025-26 standings — i.e. the same as those who gain additional games from advancing to the knockout rounds. The Cup title game does not count toward regular-season standings.

For the Rockets, in contrast to the wild-card scenario, it’s worth noting that one of those two add-on games would be at home, inside Toyota Center.

The possible opponent pool consists of the Thunder, Warriors, Nuggets, Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers — and since these would be non-Cup matchups, it would have to be opponents who were also eliminated in group-stage play.

Breaking down that group of six, the home matchup would likely come against a team that is currently on the books for only one appearance in Houston this season. Based on the current schedule, that’s the Warriors, Nuggets, and Thunder.

Conversely, the other three teams — the Lakers, Clippers, and Timberwolves — are only scheduled to get one visit from Houston this season. So, those would likely be the three in the mix for Houston’s add-on road game.

Since the Warriors are almost certain to be eliminated after the Cup’s group stage — and the Nuggets and Thunder are likely to advance to the knockout rounds — the odds would suggest that Golden State becomes Houston’s additional home game in December.

For the add-on road game, the Timberwolves and the loser of Tuesday’s Lakers-Clippers Cup showdown — both Los Angeles teams are 2-0 in Group B, at the moment — would seem to be the strongest candidates.

So, relative to advancing in Cup play, being eliminated would give the Rockets one additional home game. Furthermore, if the add-on games become the Warriors and Clippers, both of those teams are currently at .500 or below this season. As a result, it’s probably to Houston’s scheduling interest for the Clippers to lose on Tuesday night, though it could be argued that the looming return of Kawhi Leonard makes them more of a threat.

Conversely, should Houston somehow advance, any knockout-round opponent would likely be a stronger team. After all, there’s probably a good reason why that team advanced.

It’s a small silver lining, but it’s not nothing. By not advancing in Cup play, the Rockets are likely to get one more home game at Toyota Center — and it’s likely to be a fun one versus Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and the hated Warriors.

For the Rockets and other teams across the league, those Dec. 9-16 matchups, dates, and times will be announced after the Nov. 28 conclusion of all group-stage games (schedule).

After Sunday’s thrilling come-from-behind victory over Orlando (ClutchFans postgame show), the Houston Rockets have now won nine of their last 10 games, overall.

At 9-3, the Rockets are just a half-game back of Denver for the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference standings, and they still rank No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating.

One clear reason for that success, both in Sunday’s comeback against the Magic and the 2025-26 season to date, is the offseason addition of All-Star forward Kevin Durant.

Now 37 years old, the future Hall of Famer is currently averaging 25.9 points and 4.7 rebounds per game while shooting 51.0% overall, 40.0% on 3-pointers, and 88.8% on free throws.

On ESPN’s latest The Hoop Collective podcast, Tim MacMahon and Tim Bontemps dove deeper into what it means for the Rockets as a team.

MacMahon: “Can we talk about the fact that KD is still an elite scorer in year 19? There’s been very little dropoff there, and now he’s in a situation in Houston where he just fills this glaring void as a go-to guy. He’s off to an incredible start.”

Bontemps: “Last season, the Rockets in offensive rating were 12th in the regular season. This year, they’re first. Yes, some other things changed. (Alperen) Sengun has played great, and Reed Sheppard is really starting to play well.”

“But Dillon Brooks is an inefficient shooter, and Jalen Green is a very inefficient shooter. They swapped them out for Kevin Durant, and that’s a pretty giant part of why they went from being an up-and-down offensive team — who really needed to offensive rebound to have any success — to now having the best offense in the league. They’re still offensive rebounding like crazy, but they also have Kevin Durant out there to make shots.”

MacMahon: “He’s averaging 26 (points) on 51-40-89 shooting splits. That’s pretty good.”

The complete podcast, which also features ESPN’s Brian Windhorst, can be viewed below.

Durant and the Rockets will look to keep their momentum rolling when they visit Donovan Mitchell’s Cleveland Cavaliers (10-5) on Wednesday night. Tipoff is at 6:00 p.m. Central, and the game will be televised to a national audience on ESPN.

When Houston lost its Emirates NBA Cup 2025 opener by double digits in San Antonio, its odds of advancing to December’s eight-team knockout rounds appeared low.

But one week later, after Friday’s 24-point blowout of Portland (led by Kevin Durant, who scored 30 points and was +37 in his minutes), the Rockets are now in a much better spot.

Between Houston’s home win over the Trail Blazers and Golden State’s late-night victory at San Antonio, all five teams in Western Conference Group C are now 1-1 at the midway point of group play. Many observers around the NBA are calling that the “group of death” for the in-season tournament, referring to the collective difficulty of those teams.

As things stand, four of those five squads have winning records in the 2025-26 regular season, and the fifth (6-6 Portland) is at .500.

In Cup play, with all teams having split against each other, the second tiebreaker criteria (after head-to-head) is point differential. From that standpoint, the margin the Rockets were able to put up Friday was very helpful. Here’s how the five teams currently stack up:

1.) Denver: 1-1, +23
2.) Rockets: 1-1, +13
3.) San Antonio: 1-1, +10
4.) Portland: 1-1, -22
5.) Golden State: 1-1, -24

Houston’s final two NBA Cup group games are next Friday, Nov. 21, at home versus Denver, and then the following Wednesday, Nov. 26, at Golden State.

Kevin Durant posts his 4th straight game with 20+ points in Houston's @emirates NBA Cup West C victory!

30 points I 5 rebounds I 3 triples pic.twitter.com/yevP0iUdn4

— NBA (@NBA) November 15, 2025

Neither game will be easy to win, but if the Rockets get to 3-1, they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over every team in the group outside of the Spurs.

In that scenario, the only way the Rockets could potentially not win the group is if the Spurs swept their road games at Portland (Nov. 26) and Denver (Nov. 28) over Thanksgiving week. The Spurs would likely be underdogs against the Nuggets, assuming Nikola Jokic is healthy and available to play.

And even if San Antonio did win both of those games, the Rockets could still have a realistic chance of securing the fourth and final Western Conference knockout-round slot via the wild card, which is determined by point differential. That’s where Friday’s blowout margin versus the Trail Blazers could pay even more dividends down the line. In each conference, the wild-card spot goes to a second-place finisher with the best point differential.

CURRY BRINGS DUBS WITHIN 1.

CASTLE PUTS SPURS UP 3.

BUTLER III CUTS LEAD TO 1.

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STEPH SINKS CLUTCH FTS.

Warriors/Spurs gave us a little bit of everything 🍿 pic.twitter.com/0UtaFjChdS

— NBA (@NBA) November 15, 2025

Those knockout round games — or add-on regular-season contests, in scenarios where the Rockets are eliminated early from NBA Cup contention — will be added to the schedule for the week of Dec. 9-16. Opponents, dates, times, and locations will be announced at the end of November, once all group-stage games are concluded.

Granted, the biggest priority for the Rockets remains the 2025-26 regular season and building up for an eventual run in the 2026 NBA playoffs. At the moment, the Rockets are 8-3 and have won eight of their last nine, overall. That’s the primary focus.

That hot stretch has lifted Houston to the No. 3 spot in the West standings, trailing only Oklahoma City (12-1) and Denver (9-2), and the Rockets will have a chance to gain a game on the Nuggets during next Friday’s showdown at Toyota Center.

Yet, it’s becoming clear that Houston cares about the NBA Cup, as well. In Friday’s game versus the Trail Blazers, All-Star center Alperen Sengun checked back into the game with just over five minutes left and the Rockets ahead by 26 points.

Sure, he might have wanted a triple-double. But from the perspective of head coach Ime Udoka, the most plausible explanation seems to be that he wanted to sustain that lofty margin, which the Rockets were largely able to do.

Alperen Sengun posted a near triple-double in the Rockets victory over Portland!

🚀 25 PTS
🚀 10 REB
🚀 9 AST
🚀 3 STL
🚀 3 BLK

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Houston moves to 1-1 in @emirates NBA Cup West Group C play! pic.twitter.com/RcBYSiifoS

— NBA (@NBA) November 15, 2025

The bottom line is this: With two group-stage games left to play, the Rockets have suddenly found themselves in a solid position, from an NBA Cup perspective.

They don’t fully control their own destiny, of course. But if they are able to win against the Nuggets and Warriors, it now appears more likely than not that Houston would advance to the knockout rounds for a second consecutive year.

Relative to seven days ago, that’s a good place to be.

In a self-funded project (reportedly at an investment of over $10 million), the Houston Rockets are replacing the 17,000 bowl seats inside their home arena of Toyota Center. The new seats feature a black sports-weave material, which will represent a noticeable change relative to the venue’s current color scheme of red.

In advance of Wednesday’s game versus the Washington Wizards, which kicks off a three-game homestand over the next five days, the Rockets completed the renovation on three upper-level sections. Others throughout the building will change as the 2025-26 NBA season progresses.

All of the new seats, which are shown below, include attached cup holders.

Because the initial completed sections are in the upper level, the backdrop is unlikely to look different for fans watching on television. However, that could change as the season progresses and the work eventually migrates to the lower level.

No scheduling shutdowns are anticipated due to the project, and the change will not cause the venue to lose any seating capacity. The current bowl seats, other than the suite level, are “original to the building,” which first opened in 2003.

The seating and platform upgrades are among many recommendations from a facility condition assessment by Venue Solutions Group, which advised that Toyota Center needs a total of $635.8 million in maintenance work over the next 20 years.

In 2025, Toyota Center is now in its third operational decade. With many architectural, mechanical, and technological features original to the building, replacements are becoming necessary after 20-plus years of use, according to the assessment (via the Houston Business Journal). But while the arena requires modernization, the assessment found that the facilitity generally remains in good condition and has been well-maintained throughout.

Under the leadership of team owner Tilman Fertitta, the Rockets have made a series of renovations to Toyota Center in recent years. That process remains ongoing, with seating upgrades representing the latest and most visible phase.

Last fall, the Houston Rockets made an impressive run to the semifinals of the annual Emirates NBA Cup. That in-season tournament run concluded with a last-second home win over the Golden State Warriors in a thrilling quarterfinal and a competitive semifinal loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Las Vegas.

Both were single elimination games, for tournament purposes, and the added intensity may have helped a young Rockets team as they geared up for an eventual playoff appearance.

In 2025, however, a return trip to the knockout rounds is becoming unlikely.

In a grouping that some are calling the “group of death,” the Rockets took an 11-point loss in Friday’s game at San Antonio, their first of 2025 NBA Cup play.

So, going forward, Houston’s margin of error (for tournament purposes) is minimal.

Only four teams per conference advance to the eight-team quarterfinals in December, with each conference featuring the winner of its three groups and a “wild card” — i.e. the team with the best record and point differential among second-place finishers.

Based on that high threshold and the small number of teams, every team that advanced to the 2024 knockout rounds went at least 3-1 in group-stage play.

So, for all intents and purposes, the Rockets likely need to sweep their remaining three group games — at home on Nov. 14 and Nov. 21 versus the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets, and at Golden State on Nov. 26 — to have a chance of advancing.

But they also likely need to win at least one of those by a large margin, since they’re currently at a -11 point differential. They would also lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Spurs.

Right now, the Spurs and Blazers are tied atop the group at 1-0, though San Antonio currently holds the tiebreaker based on differential (+11 vs. +2). The Nuggets (1-1, +23) are in third, while the Rockets (0-1, -11) and Warriors (0-1, -25) are tied for last.

For tiebreaker purposes, the 25-point win that Denver had over Golden State (playing without Steph Curry due to illness) could loom large.

Long story short, the Rockets almost certainly need to sweep their final three games to have a chance of advancing out of Group C, and at least one of them may need to come by a large margin. It’s not impossible, but it’s a heavy lift.

As for the 2025-26 regular season, Houston (5-3) had its five-game winning streak snapped with Friday’s loss. Should the Rockets not advance in NBA Cup play, they would have two games added to their schedule in the week of Dec. 9-16 versus West rivals who they are currently slated to play only three times. One would be at home, and the other on the road.

The possible opponent pool would consist of the Thunder, Warriors, Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers — and since these would be non-Cup matchups, it would have to be opponents who were also eliminated in group-stage play.

For the Rockets and other teams across the league, those matchups and dates will be announced after the Nov. 28 conclusion of all 2025 NBA Cup group games (schedule).