Last fall, the Houston Rockets made an impressive run to the semifinals of the annual Emirates NBA Cup. That in-season tournament run concluded with a last-second home win over the Golden State Warriors in a thrilling quarterfinal and a competitive semifinal loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Las Vegas.

Both were single elimination games, for tournament purposes, and the added intensity may have helped a young Rockets team as they geared up for an eventual playoff appearance.

In 2025, however, a return trip to the knockout rounds is becoming unlikely.

In a grouping that some are calling the “group of death,” the Rockets took an 11-point loss in Friday’s game at San Antonio, their first of 2025 NBA Cup play.

So, going forward, Houston’s margin of error (for tournament purposes) is minimal.

Only four teams per conference advance to the eight-team quarterfinals in December, with each conference featuring the winner of its three groups and a “wild card” — i.e. the team with the best record and point differential among second-place finishers.

Based on that high threshold and the small number of teams, every team that advanced to the 2024 knockout rounds went at least 3-1 in group-stage play.

So, for all intents and purposes, the Rockets likely need to sweep their remaining three group games — at home on Nov. 14 and Nov. 21 versus the Portland Trail Blazers and Denver Nuggets, and at Golden State on Nov. 26 — to have a chance of advancing.

But they also likely need to win at least one of those by a large margin, since they’re currently at a -11 point differential. They would also lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Spurs.

Right now, the Spurs and Blazers are tied atop the group at 1-0, though San Antonio currently holds the tiebreaker based on differential (+11 vs. +2). The Nuggets (1-1, +23) are in third, while the Rockets (0-1, -11) and Warriors (0-1, -25) are tied for last.

For tiebreaker purposes, the 25-point win that Denver had over Golden State (playing without Steph Curry due to illness) could loom large.

Long story short, the Rockets almost certainly need to sweep their final three games to have a chance of advancing out of Group C, and at least one of them may need to come by a large margin. It’s not impossible, but it’s a heavy lift.

As for the 2025-26 regular season, Houston (5-3) had its five-game winning streak snapped with Friday’s loss. Should the Rockets not advance in NBA Cup play, they would have two games added to their schedule in the week of Dec. 9-16 versus West rivals who they are currently slated to play only three times. One would be at home, and the other on the road.

The possible opponent pool would consist of the Thunder, Warriors, Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Los Angeles Lakers, and Los Angeles Clippers — and since these would be non-Cup matchups, it would have to be opponents who were also eliminated in group-stage play.

For the Rockets and other teams across the league, those matchups and dates will be announced after the Nov. 28 conclusion of all 2025 NBA Cup group games (schedule).

Just prior to training camp, the Houston Rockets lost veteran point guard Fred VanVleet (right knee ACL repair) to a potentially season ending injury.

That development led many observers around the league to speculate that Houston might pursue an external upgrade at point guard.

Yet, six games into the 2025-26 season, the Rockets (4-2) own the NBA’s best offense. They also have the majority of their point-guard reps going to Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard, two promising young talents who should only improve as the year progresses.

With that in mind, even as tensions seemingly rise in Memphis between the Grizzlies and two-time All-Star Ja Morant, it doesn’t seem as though Houston is interested in pursuing a trade (should the 26-year-old eventually hit the market).

The Athletic’s Sam Amick writes:

The Grizzlies’ next opponent, the Houston Rockets, need a point guard after losing Fred Van Vleet to a torn ACL in the preseason… but, per a team source, are unlikely to pursue him.

The are, of course, some extracurricular concerns involving Morant.

But from a Houston perspective, the logic appears to be basketball-related.

The Rockets have an elite offense, as is, so why would GM Rafael Stone bring in a high-usage player who would potentially take away touches and playmaking opportunities from the likes of Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Alperen Sengun?

The Rockets also expect VanVleet back at some point, and by the start of the 2026-27 season at the latest. Morant is under contract through the 2027-28 campaign, and historically, he’s a significantly higher-usage player than VanVleet.

Should the on-court results significantly change, it’s possible that Stone and the Rockets could revisit the Morant option by the in-season trade deadline of Feb. 5, 2026. But based on what we know now, it doesn’t appear likely that Houston will be involved in any bidding.

After losing Fred VanVleet to a potentially season ending knee injury, the Rockets aren’t starting a traditional point guard. The closest thing in Houston’s starting lineup, Amen Thompson, hasn’t even made a single 3-pointer through four games.

And yet, at the moment, the Rockets (2-2) have the NBA’s best offense of the 2025-26 season.

One enormous reason for that success is rebounding. In Wednesday’s victory at Toronto, the Rockets overwhelmed the Raptors on the glass, 64-29.

In a podcast released after that game, The Ringer’s Zach Lowe singled out Houston’s “double big” lineups featuring both Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams.

“Who has the No. 1 offense in the entire NBA? The Houston freaking Rockets, who are proving that you can do it in a lot of different ways,” Lowe explained.

“If you’re big enough and mean enough and you have Amen Thompson and Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun, and Steven freaking Adams getting every offensive rebound, you can live at the foul line,” Lowe continued. “You can get second, third, and fourth possessions, and you can build an elite offense despite taking almost no 3s and having no traditional point guard, other than Reed Sheppard coming off the bench… who’s been just okay.”

“I feel like I’m watching a scientific experiment every time I watch them. With Sengun and Adams on the floor together, they’re +37 in 70 minutes. This continues to be the greatest accidental discovery in recent basketball history.”

“Steven Adams cannot be kept off the offensive glass. You know what their offensive rebounding rate is with those two guys on the floor? 47 percent. If they shoot and miss, there’s a 50-50 chance they’re getting it back. There was a possession in Toronto where they got two or three offensive rebounds in a row, and on the second one, Scottie Barnes was under the rim trying to box out Adams, I think. And mid-possession, seeing that the Rockets were going to get the ball back, he just slumped his shoulders and kind of stopped playing for a minute, because it’s so demoralizing to play against this big, nasty, physical team.”

To Lowe’s point, it should be noted that head coach Ime Udoka and general manager Rafael Stone clearly didn’t anticipate the two-center lineups functioning as well as they have.

“The double big (success), that did surprise me,” Stone said prior to training camp. “If it didn’t, then it would be shame on me for not doing it at the beginning of the season. But good basketball players can play with good basketball players, and I do think Steven is a very high-IQ player, and Alperen is, too.”

With a limited offensive team in 2024-25, and particularly in halfcourt situations, the Rockets found late in the year that leaning into the high offensive rebounding rate of those Sengun-Adams lineups helped mitigate those deficiencies.

After acquiring Durant in the 2025 offseason, the thought was that Houston’s 2025-26 offense might look a bit more traditional in its approach. But VanVleet’s September injury changed the plan — and so far, the Sengun-Adams pairing is once again working its magic to help overcome those perceived shortcomings.

Lowe’s complete podcast can be viewed here, with the Houston discussion starting approximately 81 minutes in.

With Wednesday’s 139-121 victory at Toronto, the Rockets (2-2) secured their first winning streak of the 2025-26 campaign and are now NBA’s top-rated offense of the young season.

Featuring Dave Hardisty, Ben DuBose, and Paulo Alves, our “ClutchFans Live” postgame show recaps all the key storylines from that showing against the Raptors.

Discussion topics include big scoring games from Kevin Durant and Jabari Smith Jr.; a dominant rebounding performance, led by interior strength from Steven Adams and Alperen Sengun; a subpar shooting night by Reed Sheppard; and potential concerns on defense, where the Rockets currently rank in the bottom half of the league.

In the win at Toronto (box score), Durant, Smith, Sengun, and Amen Thompson combined for a whopping 92 points, with each shooting at least 50% from the field.

Kevin Durant already made it clear at Houston’s Sept. 29 media day that he intends to sign a contract extension with the Rockets.

It’s simply a matter of when and how much. And we may not have to wait long to find out.

ESPN insider Shams Charania said this on Wednesday’s NBA Today television show:

The Rockets and Durant’s business manager and partner, Rich Kleiman, they’ve been in constant communication about a long-term contract extension.

He can sign a two-year extension, and I’m told there is optimism about a deal getting done before the start of the regular season.

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Now 37 years old, Durant is currently under contract for just the 2025-26 season at $54.7 million, and he is eligible to sign a two-year deal (no more than that due to the NBA’s age-38 rule) for just above $120 million in total value.

But even though Durant remains an All-Star player, all indications are that the deal probably won’t be at the maximum amount.

For starters, if a maximum deal was on the table and Durant had already communicated his desire to extend (as he has), why wouldn’t it already be signed? Second, intel from earlier in the offseason were that Durant is open to taking a sub-max deal.

Finally, the Rockets are being cautious with future payrolls and attempting to avoid many of the punitive team-building restrictions placed on expensive teams under the NBA’s latest Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA). That is very important for a 2027-28 season in which rising star Amen Thompson will likely be on the books at a much higher salary.

For those reasons, it appears that at least some negotiations are taking place regarding the next Durant contract, and it won’t be as simple as general manager Rafael Stone giving him the maximum amount and years.

Whatever the case, it sounds as though we won’t have to wait very long to find out the end result. While there is no firm deadline and talks can theoretically drag into the regular season (in contrast to the Oct. 20 rookie-scale extension deadline for Tari Eason), it sounds like a Durant deal is inevitable and fairly imminent.

The regular season opens in less than two weeks on Tuesday, October 21.