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As Rockets set to take on Thunder, James Harden must rediscover his mojo

The bright side of the Rockets’ annual late-season collapse is that it didn’t cost them the playoffs. The Rockets will play their first postseason game in four years as they take on the Thunder in Game 1 tonight at 8:30pm Central.

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James Harden as a Houston Rocket in Oklahoma City, November 2012

James Harden hasn't been quite the same player since the trade deadline, but he can further establish his superstar status against his old team in his first playoff series as a Houston Rocket

The bright side of the Rockets’ annual late-season collapse is that it didn’t cost them the playoffs. The Rockets will play their first postseason game in four years as they take on the Thunder in Game 1 tonight at 8:30pm Central.

Some thoughts as we near tipoff…

Harden’s Play a Concern

As the regular season came to a close Wednesday night, the Rockets should have been concerned about plenty of things. Falling from complete control of the 6th spot to the final spot in the West is up there. So is their poor play in fourth quarters.

But my biggest concern, hands down, is that James Harden has looked like a mere mortal.

There is no overstating how important Harden has been this year. The 6-foot-5 guard has been a revelation for the Rockets, the young superstar foundation they’ve been seeking for years. His outstanding play and cornerstone role in the offense is the reason the Rockets are still playing in late April.

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Opposing coach after opposing coach lauded praise on Harden, raving about how complete of an offensive player he is — solid three-point shooter, elite penetrator and finisher, elite ability to get to the line, unselfish and willing passer. Make no mistake — without Harden, Houston is a lottery team, Kevin McHale doesn’t get mentioned as a Coach of the Year candidate and Daryl Morey isn’t the favorite to win the Executive of the Year award, as he should be.

But something’s amiss right now.

Harden has always been a terrific finisher, a guy hitting over half of his shots inside the arc. In 2010-11 he hit 51.4% and in 2011-12 he was knocking down an incredible 57.9%. Through the first 57 games in his first season in Houston, Harden was hitting exactly 50%.

In the final 21 games since, starting with the month of March, Harden has connected on an uncharacteristic 39.4% inside the three-point line, a drastic drop.

There are plenty of reasons this could be. Harden rolled his foot/ankle hard in Golden State just before the All-Star break and has been trying to overcome injury issues since. He also could be fatigued as his body adjusts to a much larger role, playing over 38 minutes a night. The team also has been operating without a stretch four on the roster since the trade deadline, which may or may not be creating more congestion in the lane, making it harder to Eurostep through.

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But whatever the reason, Harden’s driving ability and elite-level scoring efficiency is critical to the Rockets’ offensive success. Rediscovering that is of the utmost importance.

Rockets will have to be near perfect to beat Thunder

In the three games the Rockets played against the Thunder this year, Oklahoma City averaged (I repeat, averaged) 121.0 points on 50% shooting and 41.8% from long range. This is the league’s best offense, but the Rockets didn’t come close to slowing down any of their big guns:

OKC Thunder Top Players vs. Rockets

The one game the Rockets won, a 122-119 thriller at the Toyota Center on February 20th, was a near flawless offensive performance by the Rockets. Harden hit 14-19 for 46 points, Jeremy Lin popped off for 29 points and the Rockets connected on 45.5% from downtown.

But while we’ve discussed Harden’s slump, we haven’t touched on the Rockets’ more recent woes from beyond the arc. The Rockets thrived on the long ball for most of the year, but they hit 40% or better from three-point range just 3 times in the final 17 games. In fact, they hit just 33.4% during that stretch, a percentage that over the season would be worthy of bottom 4 in the league.

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So this is definitely going to be a daunting task. I believe the Rockets have made improvements defensively since they last saw the Thunder, but enough to overcome the slippage we’ve seen from Harden and the long distance dialers?

Point Guard Battle

Jeremy Lin was wildly inconsistent this year, but he also finished strong, hitting 39.3% from downtown over his final 34 games (compared to 29.3% in the 48 games before that). To me, that shows both his improvement and his promise heading into this series as well as 2013-14.

But boy did he get the short straw in his first ever playoff series. Russell Westbrook is an athletic freak who could go for 40 on any night and put you on the wrong end of a poster while doing it (just ask Shane Battier). Lin will have his hands full.

However, I don’t expect Lin (or anyone) to shut down Westbrook, only to make him work hard on the other end. The pressure will be on Lin to step up his offensive game if the Rockets are to have a shot in this matchup, as evidenced by the fact that he had to more than double his scoring average in Houston’s lone win over the Thunder this year.

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If Lin isn’t effective, expect McHale to go with a heavy dose of Patrick Beverley. Westbrook is an amazing talent, but he can be sensitive, immature and reckless. Remember his reaction to Dragic playing physical defense? Put Beverley on him, a guy who has gotten under the skin of several players in his short time in the NBA so far, and I’ll set the over/under on “Moments of Friction” between these two at 2.5.

Final Thoughts

It’s not impossible for the Rockets to pull off the mighty upset and beat the Thunder — they have played at a level this season that suggests they could give them a great series — but recent trends don’t support it. On paper, this should go no more than 5 games in favor of Oklahoma City.

A series win would be phenomenal for the Rockets (and certainly make OKC GM Sam Presti the loneliest man in the world), but there’s no shame in losing this series. The Rockets far exceeded expectations just to get here, and I do not believe the Rockets are coaching or player decisions away from a championship with this current roster. Harden is the centerpiece, but more is needed.

So my primary focus is the big picture and I’m looking for positives under playoff pressure and intensity that the Rockets can build on, such as Chandler Parsons playing strong defense on Kevin Durant, Lin’s continued effectiveness on the offensive end and/or Omer Asik controlling the paint defensively.

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However, above all other goals for this series, Harden must play and lead well. As unfair as it may be, he is still being poked, prodded and tested as a superstar and his performance against his former team when the games really matter will be put under the microscope. A poor showing from the Rockets’ foundation player, coupled with his tough close to the regular season, could create a sliver of doubt about the one thing that seemed unquestionable — their future.

Harden can put that to rest starting tonight.

Prediction: Heart seeks Rockets in 6. Mind says OKC in 5. I’ll compromise at Thunder in 6.

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Armed with a bizarre fascination for Mario Elie and a deep love of the Houston Rockets, Dave Hardisty started ClutchFans in 1996 under the pen name “Clutch”.

Analysis

‘He’s a winner’: In Houston debut, Dorian Finney-Smith makes a clear impact

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Photo via Rockets.com, Houston Rockets

The sample is small, but the results are hard to deny.

In his first three outings with the Rockets, veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith is already making a significant impact.

After struggling defensively for much of December, Houston (20-10) is back in the NBA’s top five in defensive rating over its past three games.

All three were commanding victories, starting with a road victory on Christmas over the Los Angeles Lakers, and they all came with Finney-Smith as a new addition to the rotation. Though he signed with the Rockets in July, Finney-Smith sat out the first 27 games of the 2025-26 regular season due to offseason ankle surgery.

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In 45 minutes over those three games, the Rockets have a +21.0 net rating differential with Finney-Smith on the floor. By defensive rating, they are 14.3 points better when he plays.

Offensively, the versatile 6-foot-7 forward is making 42.9% of his 3-pointers, and that’s coming off a 2024-25 campaign in which he shot a career-best 41.1% from distance (with the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets).

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“He’s an underrated feel-for-the-game guy,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlise said prior to Houston’s victory over Indiana on Monday night. “He’s a quiet connector for a team. He’s about all the right stuff. He’s a winner.”

Carlisle previously coached Finney-Smith for multiple seasons with the Dallas Mavericks.

“It feels amazing,” Finney-Smith said of his health and how he’s currently feeling. “Just happy to be out there. Once I’m on the court, I don’t feel anything. Winning is the most important thing, and I’m just grateful to be out there.”

Ime Udoka, head coach of the Rockets, pointed to “more versatility” as one of the primary benefits of Finney-Smith’s return.

“He is a seasoned veteran, high IQ, and communicator,” Udoka said (via Brian Barefield, Rockets Wire) “Something we have lacked at times is our communication. I think his awareness of every situation is really high. He has been around and done all those roles.”

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For the time being, Finney-Smith is limited to approximately 15 minutes per game. Prior to his three appearances in recent days, he hadn’t played in an NBA game since last April, so the Rockets will be understandably cautious as they ramp up his activity.

But that minutes limitation is expected to gradually increase over the weeks ahead, and the Rockets are hopeful that Finney-Smith will be a major contributor by the time the 2026 Western Conference playoffs begin in April. Ideally, he can replace much of what the Rockets lost when they sent Dillon Brooks to the Phoenix Suns in the Kevin Durant trade.

“Whether it is off the bench or starting, he gives us a little more depth at the wing, and he can guard up or guard down,” Udoka says of Finney-Smith. The 32-year-old is widely known around the league for his “3-and-D” skill set on the wing, when healthy.

With an improving defense, Houston (20-10) enters calendar-year 2026 with three consecutive victories and a spot at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings. Next up is a New Year’s Day clash at Brooklyn, where Finney-Smith played for portions of the past three seasons.

Thursday’s tipoff is at 5:00 p.m. Central, and the game will be televised regionally on Space City Home Network (SCHN) and nationally via NBA League Pass.

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Analysis

Podcast: As trade season begins, will the Rockets make a splash?

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Photo by Ben DuBose, ClutchFans

In this roundtable conversation, ClutchFans Editor Dave Hardisty joins Ben DuBose and Paulo Alves to preview the NBA’s upcoming transaction window and its potential implications for the 16-7 Houston Rockets.

December 15 is when players who signed contracts in the preceding offseason become trade eligible, so the period from Monday until the in-season deadline of February 5, 2026, is likely to be among the most active on the 2025-26 calendar.

Discussion topics include roster needs and potential trade targets across the board, including the likelihood of bigger-name deals (such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and James Harden) and smaller acquisitions along the lines of Keon Ellis, Chris Paul, and Ayo Dosunmu.

The show also explores Houston’s potential desirability on the buyout market and the team’s long-term timeline for title contention, and specifically why those factors might make this a relatively quiet trade window for the Rockets.

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Editor’s note: Hardisty and DuBose also host regular “ClutchFans Live” postgame recap shows on YouTube, while DuBose and Alves are co-hosts of the Rockets LaunchPod podcast, presented by ClutchFans and with support from SportsTalk 790 — official flagship radio station of the Rockets. Tune in to both shows for more coverage!

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Analysis

NBA front-offices poll: Rafael Stone’s Rockets rise to No. 3

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

At 15-6, the Rockets are currently tied for the second-fewest losses in the Western Conference standings, and they own the NBA’s No. 2 net rating.

And yet, just two years ago, Houston was coming off three straight rebuilding seasons with the worst record in the West.

It’s been a remarkable rise under the guidance of general manager Rafael Stone, who has combined the development of young players such as Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard with the acquisition of impact veterans — namely, Kevin Durant, Steven Adams, and the injured Fred VanVleet.

Making matters even better, the Rockets added and developed all that talent while still retaining several high-end future draft assets, to boot. Houston believes that draft equity can make it a sustainable contender for years to come, both in terms of having desirable trade assets and an ability to replenish its roster depth in cost-efficient ways.

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With the 2025-26 regular season now at approximately its quarter pole, The Athletic recently canvassed 36 executives across the league — presidents, general managers, vice presidents, and assistant GMs — to rank the NBA’s top front offices.

Led by Stone, the Rockets’ front office comes in at No. 3, trailing only the last two champions — the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.

“High-end talent, a willingness to be bold, (and) good asset management,” one executive told The Athletic, when asked to sum up the Rockets.

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Houston finished with one first-place vote; six second- and third-place votes, apiece; five fourth-place votes; and three fifth-place votes.

“They have drafted well, built a deep team in a tough Western Conference while managing tax aprons,” said one executive who voted the Rockets second. “(They) hired a good coach (Ime Udoka) and built an overall team identity, then added KD for cheap. From where they were only a few years ago, they have done a good job turning it around.”

Per Sam Amick of The Athletic, Stone “values this young core greatly and has frequently resisted the temptation to reach for overpriced roster shortcuts.” Udoka has an “influential voice” with the front office, as well, Amick adds.

Amick notes that the Durant trade came at a relatively low asset cost, adding that the Rockets are uninterested in pursuing a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies for disgruntled star Ja Morant.

The Athletic’s complete front-office rankings can be viewed here. This time a year ago, in the same exercise, Houston finished in a tie for the No. 11 spot.

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Analysis

With NBA Cup run complete, Rockets add Clippers, Nuggets to December schedule

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

After their Emirates NBA Cup 2025 elimination, the Rockets (12-4) learned two additional December dates for their 2025-26 regular season.

As announced Saturday by the league office, the Los Angeles Clippers (5-14) will visit Houston on Thursday, Dec. 11. Tipoff at Toyota Center will be at 7:00 p.m. Central.

Meanwhile, the Rockets (12-4) will then head to Denver on Monday, Dec. 15, where tipoff versus the Nuggets (13-5) is at 8:30 p.m. Central.

During Cup games, all three of the Clippers, Nuggets, and Rockets went 2-2 in Western Conference group-stage play. Because only four teams out of the 15 in each conference advance to the knockout rounds, a 2-2 record in group games isn’t usually enough to finish among the top four, and that was again the case this year.

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To ensure that all teams play 82 regular-season games, teams who don’t advance then have two additional December games scheduled versus same-conference opponents who also did not advance.

In most cases, these add-on matchups come down to a formula. Taking Houston as an example, each season’s schedule includes two games (one home, one away) versus all East opponents and four games (two home, two away) versus most West opponents.

However, if that was the case for all same-conference opponents, the schedule would be at 86 games in length. So, there is a select group — rotating each year — of same-conference opponents on the docket only three times.

To trim down to 80 games (to account for the possibility of Cup advancement), the six West teams with only three dates on Houston’s initial 2025-26 schedule were the Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Los Angeles Lakers.

Add-on games are typically chosen from that group, and the Thunder and Lakers advanced in Cup play, thus taking them off the table. So, it came down to two teams from the other four.

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Led by James Harden, the reeling Clippers have yet to play Houston this season, though they will meet again on Dec. 23 in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, the Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets enjoyed a close Nov. 21 victory in Houston. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun each struggled in that game.

Now, less than a month later — in a matchup that could prove pivotal in the West standings race — Durant and Sengun (assuming health) will get an opportunity to make amends.

Denver and Houston are currently tied for the No. 3 spot in the West (trailing the Thunder and Lakers), though the Rockets are technically ahead by percentage points due to playing two fewer games. Thus, that Dec. 15 rematch could have significant stakes for both sides.

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Analysis

This Thanksgiving, the Rockets are thankful for Reed Sheppard

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

Relative to their expected formula from the 2025 offseason, the Rockets were missing five rotation players in Wednesday’s Thanksgiving Eve playoff rematch versus the Warriors.

Kevin Durant (personal reasons), Steven Adams (right ankle tendinopathy), and Tari Eason (right oblique strain) were all sidelined, and veterans Fred VanVleet (right knee) and Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle) remain on the shelf after offseason surgeries.

Yet, the Rockets (12-4) still won for a 12th time in 14 games, and they overcame a 14-point road deficit against a high-profile Golden State squad featuring the likes of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

The biggest reason was second-year guard Reed Sheppard, who set career-highs in points (31) and rebounds (9) while making 12-of-25 shots (48.0%), including four 3-pointers.

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“He was big,” said head coach Ime Udoka, whose Rockets won despite shooting below 40% overall and 30% from 3-point range. “Reed really held us together when guys were struggling.”

For the season, Sheppard — a starter for Udoka over the past two games — is averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals in 24.9 minutes per game. He’s shooting 48.8% overall and 45.5% on 3-pointers, with the latter figure coming in at No. 11 among hundreds of qualified NBA players.

But the advanced metrics are even more impressive. Per Basketball Reference, here’s where Sheppard ranks among his NBA peers in several impact categories:

• Box plus/minus (BPM): No. 5 (7.3)
• Defensive BPM: No. 6 (2.7)
• Offensive BPM: No. 15 (4.6)
• Win shares per 48 minutes: No. 10 (.208)
• Value over replacement player (VORP): No. 16 (0.9)
• True shooting (TS): No. 42 (62.9%)
• Player efficiency rating (PER): No. 40 (19.6)
• Steal percentage: No. 5 (3.3%)

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The only players with a superior BPM are a quartet of annual Most Valuable Player (MVP) frontrunners in Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic. At the moment, Sheppard is the league’s highest-rated American player!

To say the least, those are remarkable efficiency metrics for a 21-year-old in his second NBA season. And it’s not as if Sheppard is posting those in low-leverage minutes, as evidenced by the key plays he made in the fourth quarter to help put the Warriors away.

“Defensively is where he’s shown the most improvement, overall,” Udoka said from San Francisco. “I think he’s taking on the challenge. The blow-bys are getting less and less. He’s catching up with the physicality of the game. Teams are going to try to attack him, at times, but like we said last year and during this summer, make them go east and west and stay in front of them. Help will come. He’s doing a great job of that.”

Sixteen games in, it’s no longer a particularly small sample. Rounding, it’s actually 20% of the 82-game regular season!

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Assuming relative health, the 2025-26 Rockets had a high floor entering the season due to the All-Star presence of Durant and Alperen Sengun. But whether they could achieve a championship ceiling likely depended on further leaps from young players — most notably, the high-upside ones like Sheppard and Amen Thompson.

With Durant out, Thompson was the headliner in Monday’s road victory in Phoenix, and Sheppard stole the show two nights later at Golden State.

For everyone surrounding the organization, it’s an appropriate time to be thankful. With these leaps being shown from players who are extremely young and still improving, the Rockets appear set up to be a force in the Western Conference for quite some time.

“It’s going to be exciting when we get fully healthy and whole,” Udoka surmised.

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