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Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason

The 2023 offseason is critical for the Houston Rockets and here’s what we think will happen

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Houston Rockets Stephen Silas Alperen Sengun Kevin Porter Jr

We have almost arrived to the oasis.

For over two years, the “2023 Offseason” has been circled on the calendar as the turning point, the time when the Houston Rockets will switch gears and make winning a priority. With potentially $60 million in cap room and a top draft pick coming, this is the moment of truth that Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office pitched to the Fertittas when the rebuild began.

Does that mean the Rockets are going to magically start winning next season? Not necessarily. But it does mean we won’t see Daishen Nix run the point for 36 minutes in the name of player development. They want to win.

It’s very tough to know what will happen this offseason, given the unknown variables. The Rockets could land a top-two pick, which would bring them Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, radically boosting their future. James Harden could opt to return, which also significantly boosts their near-term prospects.

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But regardless of whether or not luck presents a “lifeboat” (Harden, Wemby, Scoot), here are some things I believe will happen.

Also, if you have been joining us in RocketsWatch all season, first of all, thank you! We greatly appreciate all the fan support this season. But if you’ve stuck around through a tough season, you know that none of this will come as a surprise. I have been talking about these predictions since January.

1. Rockets, Stephen Silas Will Part Ways

Stephen Silas is going to be let go this offseason.

The original plan was for Silas to coach this season and start the next, getting a shot once the Rockets were making winning their top priority. But the bar was low this season and he still fell short. There were several times where the team needed a stronger hand and it wasn’t there. The roster wasn’t built to win, but there is no argument to be made that coaching did anything to enhance the situation.

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It’s important to point out that Silas got a raw deal, coming to Houston under different circumstances expecting to coach a veteran team. But this is the hand that was dealt and the Rockets have to play it. Silas may be a fine coach, but he’s not the right coach for this team and that’s all that matters at this stage.

Ownership was ready to move on by midseason, but a variety of factors have led to him finishing the year. But this is going to be it. They sorely need fresh eyes and a different voice.

Confidence Level: 100%

2. The Kevin Porter Jr. Starting Point Guard Experiment Will End

The Rockets got Kevin Porter Jr. for free from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021, but he’s been anything but since.

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Houston paid nearly $100 million to John Wall to stay at home so they could groom KPJ as their future point guard. They also signed Porter Jr to a team-friendly four-year deal despite the fact that a much more team-friendly restricted free agency was on deck.

Porter Jr. has gotten better and more comfortable at the lead guard spot in two-plus seasons, which could bode well for his future here, but it’s not near enough. He lacks ability to make advanced reads, which is one of the reasons the Rockets are dead last in corner three-point attempts. His tendency is to isolate, which is his strength, and that can create a lot of selfish basketball. In essence, the Rockets have been starting a pair of shooting guards.

The Rockets love them some KPJ, particularly Stone, so I’m not saying he’s done here. He could thrive in an alternate role, if he embraces it. But the Rockets want to make a leap next season, the first year they are on the hook to Oklahoma City for their first-round pick from the costly Russell Westbrook trade. You’re probably not going to make a bigger jump than by improving the on-court leader spot.

Confidence Level: 80%

3. Alperen Şengün Will Be Shopped

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You either believe Alperen Sengun is the next Nikola Jokic or he’s a defensive liability that is too much trouble to build around. There doesn’t seem to be much in between.

Sengun is incredibly gifted offensively and is only 20 years old, so it’s very early. This is also the biggest offseason of his young career, where he won’t be preparing for EuroBasket and can specifically train for the NBA.

There is no evidence at all they are looking to trade him. I’m very much going rogue with this prediction. But consider:

   1. Internally he has been viewed as possibly the worst pick-and-roll defensive big in the league.
   2. They started Bruno Fernando over him to open the season.
   3. They rarely run the offense through him (“ŞenHub”).
   4. The Rockets are not well-positioned with future draft picks to trade and likely need to move a good young player if they’re looking at any significant deals.
   5. They believe bringing in a center is a high priority (though that could be as a backup to Sengun).

To be clear, I’m not predicting Sengun will be dumped but rather we will hear his name floated in rumors. A lot could change — a new coach could see Alpi as key to the future, for example — but right now, given all the factors listed above, I would be surprised if Sengun is the centerpiece of this rebuild. I think he’s more likely the trade piece.

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https://twitter.com/RocketsWatch/status/1627944952498950147?s=20

Confidence Level: 60%

Armed with a bizarre fascination for Mario Elie and a deep love of the Houston Rockets, Dave Hardisty started ClutchFans in 1996 under the pen name “Clutch”.

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Houston Rockets

As playoffs loom, Fred VanVleet still not ruling out 2025-26 return

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

The expectation has been, and continues to be, that veteran Rockets guard Fred VanVleet won’t play again until the start of the Houston’s 2026-27 season in October.

VanVleet, 32, tore the ACL in his right knee in late September of 2025, and most ACL recoveries take at least nine months before players return to NBA games. That nine-month window would extend beyond even the 2026 NBA Finals.

But neither VanVleet nor the Rockets has ruled out a 2025-26 return, and even with the mid-April start of the 2026 playoffs just a month away, that seemingly still remains the case.

On the latest episode of his Unguarded podcast, VanVleet spoke with Rockets Wire’s Brian Barefield (@BigSargeSportz on X) about where he is at in his recovery.

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Among VanVleet’s comments:

I’m at almost six months (since the injury), now. So, I’m getting there. Getting stronger, getting better. I’m moving around a lot better. I’m getting some good on-court workouts. I think that a lot of the predictions of where I was going to be was made, pre-surgery, and so we’ve had to adjust that timeline as things go on.

But again, selfishly, I’m always going to keep my window open. I’m not going to come on here and tell you, ‘Oh, I’m not coming back. And then I come back like, ‘Oh, surprise.’

But I’m not ruling it out and I’m not saying I’m coming back. I’m just rehabbing. I’m working on myself, and I keep that goal in mind, because I’ve made such good progress. But ultimately, it’s going to come down to how I feel and where I’m at. But I do feel like I’m progressing. I’m on track.

In VanVleet’s absence, 23-year-old Amen Thompson and 21-year-old Reed Sheppard have taken on increased ball-handling and playmaking responsibilities.

But the Rockets would certainly welcome the return of their floor general, which would allow more off-ball opportunities for Thompson and Sheppard. Defensively, VanVleet’s presence could also help stabilize a Houston group that allowed an average of 137 points in two blowout losses earlier this week at San Antonio and Denver.

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Even so, it clearly remains less likely than likely that VanVleet returns this season. But apparently the towel isn’t being thrown just yet.

Houston (40-25) enters this weekend at No. 4 in the tightly packed Western Conference standings and in line for home-court advantage in at least one round of the playoffs. Yet, the seventh-seeded Phoenix Suns (39-27) — who, as things stand, would need to go through the West play-in tournament just to qualify for the playoffs — are only 1.5 games back.

With 15 regular-season games left to play, the margins in the West are that thin, and any production from VanVleet — even if in a limited post-injury role — could be significant.

Granted, it could also be a situation where it proves unrealistic for VanVleet to return within the next month (i.e. within seven months since the injury), but it might become realistic if Houston’s playoff run extends until closer to May’s eight-month mark.

But for that timeline to work, it would require Houston advancing in the playoffs. To say the least, those recent results versus the Spurs and Nuggets haven’t inspired confidence.

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VanVleet, however, appears undeterred.

“There is such a thing as regular-season teams and playoff teams, and I think all of our dysfunction and isolation (this season), and having to win in a lot of different ways… that could benefit us in a seven-game series,” VanVleet said on the podcast.

“I wouldn’t want to play us in a seven-game series, with or without me,” he added. “I’m still taking us over San Antonio.”

Time will tell as to whether VanVleet is right, as well as whether his knee is in a good enough spot, physically, to help the cause. But the door is being left open.

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Analysis

‘Mr. Reliable’: Jabari Smith Jr. takes flight as Rockets rise to No. 3 in West

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

In the first two weeks of January, fourth-year forward Jabari Smith Jr. went through a brutal eight-game shooting slump, and the Rockets were 3-5 over that span.

But since mid-January, Smith’s fortunes have changed in a big way — and so, too, have those of the Rockets as a team.

In 17 games since Jan. 18, the Auburn product is averaging 17.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 51.0% overall, 42.6% on 3-pointers, and 81.4% on free throws.

Smith’s true-shooting clip is a robust 64.8% over that period, and the Rockets are 11-6 (.647) during those 17 games — second-best among all Western Conference teams. In their previous 22 games, Houston had gone 11-11.

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After Monday’s blowout home win over Utah, in which Smith scored a game-high 31 points, the Rockets (35-21) are back to No. 3 in the West standings.

“The last month or so I think Jabari has been catching his rhythm, understanding more his role,” All-Star forward Kevin Durant said postgame. “I know guys have been here for a while but it’s still a different team from last year, so guys have got to understand their roles a bit more. I think Bari has just stepped into his position and been great for us the last month.”

For Smith, it was his first time since February 2024 to score 20+ points in consecutive games.

Yet, it wasn’t just about the scoring, as Smith also finished with 9 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 3 steals against the Jazz. In postgame comments from Toyota Center, the versatile 6-foot-11 forward said he believes those types of defensive contributions often fuel his offense.

“I think it was about my mindset going into the games,” Smith said of his recent improvements. “Like I always say, if I do the other things, I usually play well.”

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”I’m not going into the game worrying about when my shot is going to come, or when I’m going to get the ball. I’m just trying to focus on crashing, and doing other things. Playing defense, rebounding. Usually, when I focus on those things, the game just comes more naturally to me. I’m not thinking about it, and I just feel like I’m in a better flow.”

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And at just 22 years old, Houston’s No. 3 overall pick from the 2022 draft still has plenty of time to get even better. Asked Monday whether he feels he’s emerging as one of the better two-way players in the NBA, Smith didn’t mince words.

“For sure,” Smith told Kelly Iko of Yahoo! Sports.

“As I keep focusing on the defensive end and on the little things, I think I’m only going to keep getting better. The game is slowing down for me this year, and teammates are helping me. I feel like I’m in a good flow right now.”

“To answer your question, yes, for sure.”

For the 2025-26 season overall, Smith is now averaging career-highs in points (15.6 per game), 3-point shooting (37.0%), and true shooting (57.1%), and his combination of size and shooting allows him to space the floor and impact games without being ball dominant.

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Defensively, Smith ranks in the 88th percentile in blocks and 78th percentile in defensive rebounding among NBA forwards, per Cleaning the Glass.

As a team source recently told ClutchFans, “He’s Mr. Reliable.”

For more insight on Smith’s recent play, check out the ClutchFans YouTube channel for live postgame reaction to each game! Monday’s late episode features Dave Hardisty and Jeff Balke.

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Analysis

The ‘KD files’: Will the alleged burner affect the Rockets?

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

Will Kevin Durant’s alleged social media “burner” comments affect the Rockets?

At least through one game — Thursday’s impressive road win at Charlotte, led by a dominant showing from Durant — the answer appears to be no. (At least not negatively!)

With that victory and a Denver loss, Houston (34-20) climbed to No. 3 in the tightly packed Western Conference standings. Next up is Saturday’s showdown at Madison Square Garden, where tipoff versus the New York Knicks is at 7:30 p.m. Central on ABC.

In recent days, we had a pair of YouTube live streams reacting to the latest developments. Wednesday’s show with ClutchFans’ Dave Hardisty and Ben DuBose broke down Durant’s interview comments related to the scandal, while Thursday’s show with Hardisty, DuBose, and Chron.com’s Michael Shapiro offers key takeaways from an important win over the Hornets.

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You can watch those shows below, and if you haven’t seen the alleged Durant commentary regarding at least two of his teammates, you can read those messages here. Judge for yourself.

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Analysis

Podcast: Key takeaways from Rockets-Thunder, 2026 NBA trade deadline

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

Houston didn’t make a move at Thursday’s in-season trade deadline, but the Rockets did get a much-needed victory in Saturday’s 112-106 win at Oklahoma City.

For the Rockets, it’s their first win of 2025-26 against the defending NBA champs. Houston (32-19) remains at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings, while the top-seeded Thunder (40-13) continue to own the league’s best record.

Featuring Ben DuBose, Paulo Alves, and ClutchFans’ Dave Hardisty, Saturday’s postgame show reacts to both the trade deadline and that nationally televised Rockets-Thunder showdown.

Topics include offensive growth by Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr.; an apparent step forward for Alperen Sengun on defense; what general manager Rafael Stone considered at the deadline; and potential buyout options and trade targets over the coming weeks and months.

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Tune in below!

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Analysis

Rockets 111, Mavs 107: Houston enters February with momentum

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

The Rockets began January with a 3-5 record in their first eight games, and that included a winless road trip in Portland (twice) and Sacramento.

But after finishing with seven wins in nine games, Houston (30-17) enters February at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings.

Late Saturday, ClutchFans Editor Dave Hardisty teamed up with Ben DuBose (USA TODAY’s Rockets Wire) to recap the ABC primetime showdown. That video is available to watch here, as are postgame notes issued by the team.

Topics on the show include recent improvements from both Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr., with the latter on a clearly upward trajectory in late January.

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Rockets Postgame Notes (box score)

— With the win, the Rockets split the season series versus the Mavs, 2-2. Houston closed out January by winning seven of its final nine games, while Dallas has lost a season-high tying four straight. The Mavericks had previously won a season-high four in a row.

— Houston held Dallas to 107 points and improved to 21-1 when allowing fewer than 110 points this season. The Rockets held opponents to 106.4 points per game in 17 January games, down from 112.0 points in the first 30 games of the season.

— The Rockets won despite shooting 41.7% from the floor. Houston has won three of its past four games while shooting below 45.0%, all after having just three previous wins (in 2025-26) when doing so. The Rockets had 108 shot attempts, tying for their second-highest total in a non-overtime game going back to 1986-87.

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— Houston had a season-high tying 33 assists with a season-low 6 turnovers. The Rockets are averaging 27.3 assists over the past seven games after averaging 20.8 the eight games prior. Houston has recorded 12 or fewer turnovers in consecutive games for the second time this season (Nov. 12-Nov. 14).

— Six Rockets scored in double-figures, including all five starters. The last time Houston’s entire starting lineup scored 10+ points was in Brooklyn on Jan. 1.

— Amen Thompson had 21 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals. He has scored 20+ points in two of the past three games and 20 times overall this season, all after doing so 18 times in his first two seasons, combined. For the month of January, Thompson averaged 18.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.71 steals per game. [Video Highlights]

— Tari Eason had 17 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals while shooting 3-of-5 from 3-point range. He has scored 15+ points in five of his 10 games played this month after doing so five times his first 16 games played this season (the Rockets went 7-3 in those games). Eason has recorded 2+ steals in each of his past four games played, marking his longest streak since a five-game span in November 2024. [Video Highlights]

— Josh Okogie had 13 points, 5 rebounds, a steal, and a block off the bench while shooting 3-of-6 from 3-point range. He has scored in double-figures in each of the past two games after not scoring 10+ in any of the 21 previous games. From 3-point range, Okogie has hit 10 treys on 47.6% shooting over the past seven games, and he is shooting a career-high 39.3% this season. [Video Highlights]

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— Cooper Flagg had a game-high 34 points along with a career-high 12 rebounds and 5 assists. He scored a career-high 49 points in the Mavs’ last game versus Charlotte on Jan. 29. Dating back to 1996-97, Flagg’s 83 points is the third-highest two-game total by a rookie. He is the fourth different Dallas rookie to have scored 30+ points in consecutive games (Mark Aguirre, Luka Dončić, Jay Vincent).

Houston resumes play Monday at Indiana (13-36), and our ClutchFans Live postgame show will react to both that night’s action and the in-season trade deadline of Thursday, February 5. Chron.com’s Michael Shapiro will be our featured guest, so tune in!

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