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Analysis

After routing Portland, Rockets storm back into 2025 NBA Cup race

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

When Houston lost its Emirates NBA Cup 2025 opener by double digits in San Antonio, its odds of advancing to December’s eight-team knockout rounds appeared low.

But one week later, after Friday’s 24-point blowout of Portland (led by Kevin Durant, who scored 30 points and was +37 in his minutes), the Rockets are now in a much better spot.

Between Houston’s home win over the Trail Blazers and Golden State’s late-night victory at San Antonio, all five teams in Western Conference Group C are now 1-1 at the midway point of group play. Many observers around the NBA are calling that the “group of death” for the in-season tournament, referring to the collective difficulty of those teams.

As things stand, four of those five squads have winning records in the 2025-26 regular season, and the fifth (6-6 Portland) is at .500.

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In Cup play, with all teams having split against each other, the second tiebreaker criteria (after head-to-head) is point differential. From that standpoint, the margin the Rockets were able to put up Friday was very helpful. Here’s how the five teams currently stack up:

1.) Denver: 1-1, +23
2.) Rockets: 1-1, +13
3.) San Antonio: 1-1, +10
4.) Portland: 1-1, -22
5.) Golden State: 1-1, -24

Houston’s final two NBA Cup group games are next Friday, Nov. 21, at home versus Denver, and then the following Wednesday, Nov. 26, at Golden State.

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Neither game will be easy to win, but if the Rockets get to 3-1, they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over every team in the group outside of the Spurs.

In that scenario, the only way the Rockets could potentially not win the group is if the Spurs swept their road games at Portland (Nov. 26) and Denver (Nov. 28) over Thanksgiving week. The Spurs would likely be underdogs against the Nuggets, assuming Nikola Jokic is healthy and available to play.

And even if San Antonio did win both of those games, the Rockets could still have a realistic chance of securing the fourth and final Western Conference knockout-round slot via the wild card, which is determined by point differential. That’s where Friday’s blowout margin versus the Trail Blazers could pay even more dividends down the line. In each conference, the wild-card spot goes to a second-place finisher with the best point differential.

Those knockout round games — or add-on regular-season contests, in scenarios where the Rockets are eliminated early from NBA Cup contention — will be added to the schedule for the week of Dec. 9-16. Opponents, dates, times, and locations will be announced at the end of November, once all group-stage games are concluded.

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Granted, the biggest priority for the Rockets remains the 2025-26 regular season and building up for an eventual run in the 2026 NBA playoffs. At the moment, the Rockets are 8-3 and have won eight of their last nine, overall. That’s the primary focus.

That hot stretch has lifted Houston to the No. 3 spot in the West standings, trailing only Oklahoma City (12-1) and Denver (9-2), and the Rockets will have a chance to gain a game on the Nuggets during next Friday’s showdown at Toyota Center.

Yet, it’s becoming clear that Houston cares about the NBA Cup, as well. In Friday’s game versus the Trail Blazers, All-Star center Alperen Sengun checked back into the game with just over five minutes left and the Rockets ahead by 26 points.

Sure, he might have wanted a triple-double. But from the perspective of head coach Ime Udoka, the most plausible explanation seems to be that he wanted to sustain that lofty margin, which the Rockets were largely able to do.

The bottom line is this: With two group-stage games left to play, the Rockets have suddenly found themselves in a solid position, from an NBA Cup perspective.

They don’t fully control their own destiny, of course. But if they are able to win against the Nuggets and Warriors, it now appears more likely than not that Houston would advance to the knockout rounds for a second consecutive year.

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Relative to seven days ago, that’s a good place to be.

Analysis

‘Mr. Reliable’: Jabari Smith Jr. takes flight as Rockets rise to No. 3 in West

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

In the first two weeks of January, fourth-year forward Jabari Smith Jr. went through a brutal eight-game shooting slump, and the Rockets were 3-5 over that span.

But since mid-January, Smith’s fortunes have changed in a big way — and so, too, have those of the Rockets as a team.

In 17 games since Jan. 18, the Auburn product is averaging 17.0 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 51.0% overall, 42.6% on 3-pointers, and 81.4% on free throws.

Smith’s true-shooting clip is a robust 64.8% over that period, and the Rockets are 11-6 (.647) during those 17 games — second-best among all Western Conference teams. In their previous 22 games, Houston had gone 11-11.

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After Monday’s blowout home win over Utah, in which Smith scored a game-high 31 points, the Rockets (35-21) are back to No. 3 in the West standings.

“The last month or so I think Jabari has been catching his rhythm, understanding more his role,” All-Star forward Kevin Durant said postgame. “I know guys have been here for a while but it’s still a different team from last year, so guys have got to understand their roles a bit more. I think Bari has just stepped into his position and been great for us the last month.”

For Smith, it was his first time since February 2024 to score 20+ points in consecutive games.

Yet, it wasn’t just about the scoring, as Smith also finished with 9 rebounds, 4 blocks, and 3 steals against the Jazz. In postgame comments from Toyota Center, the versatile 6-foot-11 forward said he believes those types of defensive contributions often fuel his offense.

“I think it was about my mindset going into the games,” Smith said of his recent improvements. “Like I always say, if I do the other things, I usually play well.”

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”I’m not going into the game worrying about when my shot is going to come, or when I’m going to get the ball. I’m just trying to focus on crashing, and doing other things. Playing defense, rebounding. Usually, when I focus on those things, the game just comes more naturally to me. I’m not thinking about it, and I just feel like I’m in a better flow.”

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And at just 22 years old, Houston’s No. 3 overall pick from the 2022 draft still has plenty of time to get even better. Asked Monday whether he feels he’s emerging as one of the better two-way players in the NBA, Smith didn’t mince words.

“For sure,” Smith told Kelly Iko of Yahoo! Sports.

“As I keep focusing on the defensive end and on the little things, I think I’m only going to keep getting better. The game is slowing down for me this year, and teammates are helping me. I feel like I’m in a good flow right now.”

“To answer your question, yes, for sure.”

For the 2025-26 season overall, Smith is now averaging career-highs in points (15.6 per game), 3-point shooting (37.0%), and true shooting (57.1%), and his combination of size and shooting allows him to space the floor and impact games without being ball dominant.

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Defensively, Smith ranks in the 88th percentile in blocks and 78th percentile in defensive rebounding among NBA forwards, per Cleaning the Glass.

As a team source recently told ClutchFans, “He’s Mr. Reliable.”

For more insight on Smith’s recent play, check out the ClutchFans YouTube channel for live postgame reaction to each game! Monday’s late episode features Dave Hardisty and Jeff Balke.

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Analysis

The ‘KD files’: Will the alleged burner affect the Rockets?

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

Will Kevin Durant’s alleged social media “burner” comments affect the Rockets?

At least through one game — Thursday’s impressive road win at Charlotte, led by a dominant showing from Durant — the answer appears to be no. (At least not negatively!)

With that victory and a Denver loss, Houston (34-20) climbed to No. 3 in the tightly packed Western Conference standings. Next up is Saturday’s showdown at Madison Square Garden, where tipoff versus the New York Knicks is at 7:30 p.m. Central on ABC.

In recent days, we had a pair of YouTube live streams reacting to the latest developments. Wednesday’s show with ClutchFans’ Dave Hardisty and Ben DuBose broke down Durant’s interview comments related to the scandal, while Thursday’s show with Hardisty, DuBose, and Chron.com’s Michael Shapiro offers key takeaways from an important win over the Hornets.

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You can watch those shows below, and if you haven’t seen the alleged Durant commentary regarding at least two of his teammates, you can read those messages here. Judge for yourself.

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Analysis

Podcast: Key takeaways from Rockets-Thunder, 2026 NBA trade deadline

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

Houston didn’t make a move at Thursday’s in-season trade deadline, but the Rockets did get a much-needed victory in Saturday’s 112-106 win at Oklahoma City.

For the Rockets, it’s their first win of 2025-26 against the defending NBA champs. Houston (32-19) remains at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings, while the top-seeded Thunder (40-13) continue to own the league’s best record.

Featuring Ben DuBose, Paulo Alves, and ClutchFans’ Dave Hardisty, Saturday’s postgame show reacts to both the trade deadline and that nationally televised Rockets-Thunder showdown.

Topics include offensive growth by Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr.; an apparent step forward for Alperen Sengun on defense; what general manager Rafael Stone considered at the deadline; and potential buyout options and trade targets over the coming weeks and months.

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Tune in below!

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Analysis

Rockets 111, Mavs 107: Houston enters February with momentum

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Photo via Houston Rockets, NBA, Rockets.com

The Rockets began January with a 3-5 record in their first eight games, and that included a winless road trip in Portland (twice) and Sacramento.

But after finishing with seven wins in nine games, Houston (30-17) enters February at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings.

Late Saturday, ClutchFans Editor Dave Hardisty teamed up with Ben DuBose (USA TODAY’s Rockets Wire) to recap the ABC primetime showdown. That video is available to watch here, as are postgame notes issued by the team.

Topics on the show include recent improvements from both Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr., with the latter on a clearly upward trajectory in late January.

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Rockets Postgame Notes (box score)

— With the win, the Rockets split the season series versus the Mavs, 2-2. Houston closed out January by winning seven of its final nine games, while Dallas has lost a season-high tying four straight. The Mavericks had previously won a season-high four in a row.

— Houston held Dallas to 107 points and improved to 21-1 when allowing fewer than 110 points this season. The Rockets held opponents to 106.4 points per game in 17 January games, down from 112.0 points in the first 30 games of the season.

— The Rockets won despite shooting 41.7% from the floor. Houston has won three of its past four games while shooting below 45.0%, all after having just three previous wins (in 2025-26) when doing so. The Rockets had 108 shot attempts, tying for their second-highest total in a non-overtime game going back to 1986-87.

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— Houston had a season-high tying 33 assists with a season-low 6 turnovers. The Rockets are averaging 27.3 assists over the past seven games after averaging 20.8 the eight games prior. Houston has recorded 12 or fewer turnovers in consecutive games for the second time this season (Nov. 12-Nov. 14).

— Six Rockets scored in double-figures, including all five starters. The last time Houston’s entire starting lineup scored 10+ points was in Brooklyn on Jan. 1.

— Amen Thompson had 21 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists and 2 steals. He has scored 20+ points in two of the past three games and 20 times overall this season, all after doing so 18 times in his first two seasons, combined. For the month of January, Thompson averaged 18.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, and 1.71 steals per game. [Video Highlights]

— Tari Eason had 17 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 steals while shooting 3-of-5 from 3-point range. He has scored 15+ points in five of his 10 games played this month after doing so five times his first 16 games played this season (the Rockets went 7-3 in those games). Eason has recorded 2+ steals in each of his past four games played, marking his longest streak since a five-game span in November 2024. [Video Highlights]

— Josh Okogie had 13 points, 5 rebounds, a steal, and a block off the bench while shooting 3-of-6 from 3-point range. He has scored in double-figures in each of the past two games after not scoring 10+ in any of the 21 previous games. From 3-point range, Okogie has hit 10 treys on 47.6% shooting over the past seven games, and he is shooting a career-high 39.3% this season. [Video Highlights]

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— Cooper Flagg had a game-high 34 points along with a career-high 12 rebounds and 5 assists. He scored a career-high 49 points in the Mavs’ last game versus Charlotte on Jan. 29. Dating back to 1996-97, Flagg’s 83 points is the third-highest two-game total by a rookie. He is the fourth different Dallas rookie to have scored 30+ points in consecutive games (Mark Aguirre, Luka Dončić, Jay Vincent).

Houston resumes play Monday at Indiana (13-36), and our ClutchFans Live postgame show will react to both that night’s action and the in-season trade deadline of Thursday, February 5. Chron.com’s Michael Shapiro will be our featured guest, so tune in!

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Analysis

‘He’s a winner’: In Houston debut, Dorian Finney-Smith makes a clear impact

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Photo via Rockets.com, Houston Rockets

The sample is small, but the results are hard to deny.

In his first three outings with the Rockets, veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith is already making a significant impact.

After struggling defensively for much of December, Houston (20-10) is back in the NBA’s top five in defensive rating over its past three games.

All three were commanding victories, starting with a road victory on Christmas over the Los Angeles Lakers, and they all came with Finney-Smith as a new addition to the rotation. Though he signed with the Rockets in July, Finney-Smith sat out the first 27 games of the 2025-26 regular season due to offseason ankle surgery.

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In 45 minutes over those three games, the Rockets have a +21.0 net rating differential with Finney-Smith on the floor. By defensive rating, they are 14.3 points better when he plays.

Offensively, the versatile 6-foot-7 forward is making 42.9% of his 3-pointers, and that’s coming off a 2024-25 campaign in which he shot a career-best 41.1% from distance (with the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets).

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“He’s an underrated feel-for-the-game guy,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlise said prior to Houston’s victory over Indiana on Monday night. “He’s a quiet connector for a team. He’s about all the right stuff. He’s a winner.”

Carlisle previously coached Finney-Smith for multiple seasons with the Dallas Mavericks.

“It feels amazing,” Finney-Smith said of his health and how he’s currently feeling. “Just happy to be out there. Once I’m on the court, I don’t feel anything. Winning is the most important thing, and I’m just grateful to be out there.”

Ime Udoka, head coach of the Rockets, pointed to “more versatility” as one of the primary benefits of Finney-Smith’s return.

“He is a seasoned veteran, high IQ, and communicator,” Udoka said (via Brian Barefield, Rockets Wire) “Something we have lacked at times is our communication. I think his awareness of every situation is really high. He has been around and done all those roles.”

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For the time being, Finney-Smith is limited to approximately 15 minutes per game. Prior to his three appearances in recent days, he hadn’t played in an NBA game since last April, so the Rockets will be understandably cautious as they ramp up his activity.

But that minutes limitation is expected to gradually increase over the weeks ahead, and the Rockets are hopeful that Finney-Smith will be a major contributor by the time the 2026 Western Conference playoffs begin in April. Ideally, he can replace much of what the Rockets lost when they sent Dillon Brooks to the Phoenix Suns in the Kevin Durant trade.

“Whether it is off the bench or starting, he gives us a little more depth at the wing, and he can guard up or guard down,” Udoka says of Finney-Smith. The 32-year-old is widely known around the league for his “3-and-D” skill set on the wing, when healthy.

With an improving defense, Houston (20-10) enters calendar-year 2026 with three consecutive victories and a spot at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings. Next up is a New Year’s Day clash at Brooklyn, where Finney-Smith played for portions of the past three seasons.

Thursday’s tipoff is at 5:00 p.m. Central, and the game will be televised regionally on Space City Home Network (SCHN) and nationally via NBA League Pass.

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