Rockets reel in historic haul in 2021 NBA Draft
Grading the Rockets four first-round picks in the 2021 NBA Draft and why the future is bright in Clutch City
#2 Pick: Jalen Green
At this point, Evan Mobley is in the rearview mirror and the road ahead is Jalen Green.
The Rockets selected one hell of a prospect, taking the livewire 6-foot-5 shooting guard with the second pick of the 2021 NBA Draft. Rockets GM Rafael Stone called him a “transcendent athlete” and that his “love of basketball” really stood out.
“He’s electric,” said Stone. “His first step is as good as anybody’s in basketball. His second and third step might be better. And when he jumps, it’s really high. So good things happen.”
Green, who played his only year out of high school with the G-League Ignite, has fast-twitch athleticism that is borderline freakish. His ability to drive and score is plug-and-play for the league right now. His shooting looks good (36.5% from three with the Ignite) but it’s to be determined if it can be elite.
He’s a potential juggernaut scoring machine, but it’s his defense, or lack thereof, why some had Mobley a tad higher. Stone didn’t hide from that weakness at all.
“We’re going to work on that D (defense),” joked Stone as he turned to look at Green. “But the effort is there. It’s not nonexistent. I think he’s going to end up being a really good, well-rounded, all-around player who is impactful on both sides of the ball. If you’re as athletic as Jalen is, you can play defense. You can play defense at an elite level. So it’s all will and want and I do also think there’s a lot of will and want (in Jalen).”
It’s the talk of Green’s relentless work ethic that led me to being just fine with the Rockets taking him over Mobley. He’s a hooper who hits the gym consistently to improve. Those who coached and played with him swear by his strong drive and will to win. You can’t really argue with “IT factor” and comparisons to Kobe Bryant. Whether he’s worthy of that or not, that’s the conversation he generates.
“I work hard,” said Green. “I stay in the gym. I trust my work.”
The Rockets are playing the long game here. Green has to develop a defensive game and show that his outside shot is consistent and legit, but the potential for this dude to become a top 10 player in the entire league is there. I think Green could be an NBA magnet — the type of star that other guys want to play with — and it’s phenomenal to think the Rockets might have that so quickly after dealing away James Harden.
Time will tell but this looks like a game-changing pick.
#16 Pick: Alperen Sengun
The Rockets were able to trade for a higher pick in the draft, #16 from Oklahoma City, but surprisingly, it didn’t cost them either of picks 23 and 24. They paid what sounded initially like a high price — two future first-round picks — but the picks they gave up are ones that we graded out last month to be the two least-valuable first-rounders that the Rockets had in their cupboard: The highly-protected picks from Washington (Westbrook-Wall trade) and Detroit (Wood trade).
They shipped out this package to land their prized target — Alperen Sengun.
“We think he potentially has a chance to be special,” said Stone, who did not think there was a chance Sengun could fall to 23. “He has a higher ceiling than most guys.”
Sengun is a 6-foot-9, 240-pound post player with an impressive post game. He’s strong, quick and crafty with excellent footwork. I mean, really good footwork — the “wow” kind. He has a very good feel for finding the open man and making the right pass and he can rebound. Sengun averaged 18.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals while shooting 62.6% from the floor and 81.2% from the foul line, being named the MVP of the Turkish Super League, which is unbelievably impressive for an 18-year old.
“You guys can do the research on people who have had that level of success at a high level of pro basketball,” said Stone. “It’s a short list… and a good one.”
His post moves remind me of a young Kevin McHale — he has a series of post spins, fakes and counters already in his bag. Luis Scola was a fun player to watch in Houston and I wouldn’t mind seeing some of that again as the offensive upside, especially given his age, is enormous here.
But there are two reasons I did not have Sengun on my favorites list, and they’re both based on the player model, fair or unfair, that he projects to be. Call it the Enes Kanter Effect, another Turkish big man who can score in the post and rebound at a high level but isn’t really an impact player in today’s league.
First, defense. If Sengun, or any post player, isn’t a rim-protector and at the same time doesn’t have the lateral quickness to stay with threes and fours, then he can easily slip into defensive liability territory where opponents will target him, much the same way James Harden did to Kanter in the 2017 playoffs (giving birth to Billy Donovan’s “Can’t Play Kanter” line). That’s my biggest concern. But, while I don’t think he will ever be a plus defender, there’s reason to think Sengun might be better than that in the lateral quickness department so that concern might be overblown.
Next is simply his top strengths and how important they are in the league. Post scorers are fine but I’m not wanting to place a premium on that alone in today’s NBA. Sengun can expand that skillset by adding three-point range. He has not shown that at this early stage, but his free-throw shooting (81.2%) suggests he can and will.
So my view is if Sengun can just be passable on defense, successfully hidden in a team concept, and develop range from downtown, then this is a pick with tremendous potential. The Rockets went with a guy who could be a star and that’s what they should be swinging for at this stage of the rebuild. They passed on Duke forward Jalen Johnson and Texas PF/C Kai Jones with this pick, but for the price they paid to get it, it’s a good roll of the dice.
#23 Pick: Usman Garuba
After focusing heavily on offense with their first two picks, the Houston Rockets selected one Destiny Usman Garuba Alari and suddenly defense is once again a thing in Clutch City.
Out of Spain, Garuba is a 6-foot-8 center playing with Real Madrid of the Liga ACB and EuroLeague. He has an impressive 7-foot-3 wingspan, an always-revving motor and terrific defensive instincts. Whether guarding on the post or switching on the perimeter, Garuba takes the challenge.
“I think he’s the best defender in the world outside of the NBA and he’s 19 years old,” said Stone. “Defensively, he’ll guard your center. He’ll guard your point guard. He’s disruptive. He gets steals. He blocks shots. He rebounds. I think he potentially could be really, really impactful on that side of the ball.”
Garuba needs to develop a better outside shot, and if he does, he could log heavy minutes at both the four and five long-term for the Rockets. I’ve written before that I love Garuba’s potential and see him as a PJ Tucker-type in his ability to guard multiple positions and be a team anchor defensively.
He is a player that would fit with just about any lineup, but especially one that runs a center that is more scoring-focused. That’s what the Rockets have in Christian Wood and now Sengun.
It likely never would’ve happened if Joshua Primo had not gone #12 to San Antonio, but I’m thrilled Garuba fell as far as he did. I absolutely love this pick.
#24 Pick: Josh Christopher
I can not lie — I was initially very disappointed with the 24th pick as the Rockets took 6-foot-4, 215-pound guard Josh Christopher out of Arizona State. Christopher is a close friend of Jalen Green’s and was reportedly with him in Houston when Green worked out this past Monday. Tennessee guard Jaden Springer, a player I’m pretty high on, was on the board (interestingly, Daryl Morey scooped him up for the Sixers at pick 28).
But there are things to like about Christopher. He was the 11th-ranked prospect on the ESPN 100 coming out of high school. He’s got a strong build and isn’t afraid of contact. He’s got a good handle, is athletic and is consistently getting out to run.
“I think he’s dynamic with the ball in his hands,” said Stone. “He’s one of the best, if not the best, transition players in the draft.”
Defense might be where Christopher can really set himself apart. Stone feels he has “the potential to be a truly lockdown man-to-man defender” and compared his build to Jrue Holiday and Eric Gordon defensively.
that opens my eyes a bit.
His shot, however, is painfully inconsistent. He connected on just 30.5% from three as a freshman. It’s not really clear how well he’ll score/shoot around better offensive players, but the frame and potential is there.
I’m not in love with the pick but I’m open to see what he can do here alongside his buddy. Christopher won over the press conference with his charisma and has the look of a potential fan favorite here in Houston.
The front office investment in analytics, scouting and the draft is starting to pay off and it’s not hard to see why the Rockets are drawing so much praise for their picks. The trade they made was not overly expensive nor high-risk. Every player they drafted is 19-years old with a visible path to how they could become an impact player in the league. That doesn’t mean they’re all going to hit, but they are mostly ideal selections for a team looking to produce star talent down the line.
Overall, I give the squad an easy A. They’ve helped shape their future significantly in just one draft and they have at least two more to go before the Rockets are expected to be a playoff team (if they end up ahead of schedule, great). The James Harden trade has already indirectly brought in a potential star backcourt of Green and Kevin Porter Jr. and they have tantalizing prospects now in the frontcourt, with several future picks still in hand.
They’re executing a plan and — so far, so good. It’s going to be a lot of fun for us to watch this team develop.
Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason
The 2023 offseason is critical for the Houston Rockets and here’s what we think will happen
We have almost arrived to the oasis.
For over two years, the “2023 Offseason” has been circled on the calendar as the turning point, the time when the Houston Rockets will switch gears and make winning a priority. With potentially $60 million in cap room and a top draft pick coming, this is the moment of truth that Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office pitched to the Fertittas when the rebuild began.
Does that mean the Rockets are going to magically start winning next season? Not necessarily. But it does mean we won’t see Daishen Nix run the point for 36 minutes in the name of player development. They want to win.
It’s very tough to know what will happen this offseason, given the unknown variables. The Rockets could land a top-two pick, which would bring them Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, radically boosting their future. James Harden could opt to return, which also significantly boosts their near-term prospects.
But regardless of whether or not luck presents a “lifeboat” (Harden, Wemby, Scoot), here are some things I believe will happen.
Also, if you have been joining us in RocketsWatch all season, first of all, thank you! We greatly appreciate all the fan support this season. But if you’ve stuck around through a tough season, you know that none of this will come as a surprise. I have been talking about these predictions since January.
1. Rockets, Stephen Silas Will Part Ways
Stephen Silas is going to be let go this offseason.
The original plan was for Silas to coach this season and start the next, getting a shot once the Rockets were making winning their top priority. But the bar was low this season and he still fell short. There were several times where the team needed a stronger hand and it wasn’t there. The roster wasn’t built to win, but there is no argument to be made that coaching did anything to enhance the situation.
It’s important to point out that Silas got a raw deal, coming to Houston under different circumstances expecting to coach a veteran team. But this is the hand that was dealt and the Rockets have to play it. Silas may be a fine coach, but he’s not the right coach for this team and that’s all that matters at this stage.
Ownership was ready to move on by midseason, but a variety of factors have led to him finishing the year. But this is going to be it. They sorely need fresh eyes and a different voice.
Confidence Level: 100%
2. The Kevin Porter Jr. Starting Point Guard Experiment Will End
The Rockets got Kevin Porter Jr. for free from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021, but he’s been anything but since.
Houston paid nearly $100 million to John Wall to stay at home so they could groom KPJ as their future point guard. They also signed Porter Jr to a team-friendly four-year deal despite the fact that a much more team-friendly restricted free agency was on deck.
Porter Jr. has gotten better and more comfortable at the lead guard spot in two-plus seasons, which could bode well for his future here, but it’s not near enough. He lacks ability to make advanced reads, which is one of the reasons the Rockets are dead last in corner three-point attempts. His tendency is to isolate, which is his strength, and that can create a lot of selfish basketball. In essence, the Rockets have been starting a pair of shooting guards.
The Rockets love them some KPJ, particularly Stone, so I’m not saying he’s done here. He could thrive in an alternate role, if he embraces it. But the Rockets want to make a leap next season, the first year they are on the hook to Oklahoma City for their first-round pick from the costly Russell Westbrook trade. You’re probably not going to make a bigger jump than by improving the on-court leader spot.
Confidence Level: 80%
3. Alperen Şengün Will Be Shopped
You either believe Alperen Sengun is the next Nikola Jokic or he’s a defensive liability that is too much trouble to build around. There doesn’t seem to be much in between.
Sengun is incredibly gifted offensively and is only 20 years old, so it’s very early. This is also the biggest offseason of his young career, where he won’t be preparing for EuroBasket and can specifically train for the NBA.
There is no evidence at all they are looking to trade him. I’m very much going rogue with this prediction. But consider:
1. Internally he has been viewed as possibly the worst pick-and-roll defensive big in the league.
2. They started Bruno Fernando over him to open the season.
3. They rarely run the offense through him (“ŞenHub”).
4. The Rockets are not well-positioned with future draft picks to trade and likely need to move a good young player if they’re looking at any significant deals.
5. They believe bringing in a center is a high priority (though that could be as a backup to Sengun).
To be clear, I’m not predicting Sengun will be dumped but rather we will hear his name floated in rumors. A lot could change — a new coach could see Alpi as key to the future, for example — but right now, given all the factors listed above, I would be surprised if Sengun is the centerpiece of this rebuild. I think he’s more likely the trade piece.
Confidence Level: 60%
Mike D’Antoni: The Rockets isolation offense wasn’t pretty, but it was effective
Former Rockets coach Mike D’Antoni made an appearance on the Thinking Basketball podcast to discuss his career, and he went into his stretch with the Houston Rockets (2016-2020).
One of the big topics discussed was the isolation sets that the Rockets ran often and why they did it.
“If that one-on-one was not efficient, we wouldn’t do it,” said D’Antoni. “But it was doing, if I’m not mistaken, 1.2-something (points per possession) ridiculous. 1.16, for a long time, was the standard of the best offense an NBA team had. We kind of blew that out of the water a little bit (at) 1.20, but our isolation game was like 1.25, 1.24, so it was like — why wouldn’t we isolate?”
The former Rockets coach admitted it was not the most pleasing offense to the eye.
“People don’t like it,” said D’Antoni. “Aesthetically it’s not good. I don’t love it. I would rather pass the ball around. And if I had a team that didn’t have James Harden, guess what? We’d be passing the ball around… It wasn’t pretty. People can complain. But when you have the most efficient offense in NBA history, or close to it, why wouldn’t you do it? Just because you want to look pretty?”
D’Antoni talked about how good the Rockets second units were in the 2017-18 season because of Chris Paul, citing how often the Rockets boosted their lead or turned a deficit into an advantage when they turned to the bench.
“Chris was just a maestro at running our offense, and doing it a little bit (Steve) Nash-like,” said D’Antoni. “Harden had to do it like Harden did it, but both of them were good. Both of them were perfect.”
D’Antoni said part of the reason for the iso sets was he wanted to maximize James Harden and make him “the best player he can possibly be.”
“James is one of the smartest players — and there are a bunch of them — that I ever coached,” said D’Antoni. “I thought probably two or three years there, he had a complete mastery of the game. He went over 50 I don’t know how many times in a row. We were banged up one night and I said, ‘James, you might have to get 50 tonight for us to even have a chance to win.’ He gets 60 and we win. Stuff like that. He was able to do stuff (that)… just a mastery of the game.”
On how close the Rockets were to winning a title, said D’Antoni, “I thought we had it, the third year until Chris went down. Maybe not. Who knows, because Golden State had hearts of champions. Those guys are hard to beat. But I thought we had a good chance at it, that’s for sure.”
Why Alperen Sengun will come off the bench
With Bruno Fernando expected to start, here’s the plan for the Rockets second-year center
When the Rockets traded Christian Wood, it was crystal clear that Alperen Şengün was the new starting center for the Houston Rockets.
As we’re on the cusp of the Rockets 2022-23 season opener, there’s only one problem — he’s not.
Bruno Fernando is expected to get the starting nod at the five for the Rockets, leaving many to wonder why the second-year center out of Turkey is coming off the bench.
There are a couple reasons why.
First, the Rockets are trying to optimize their prospects, putting them each in the best position to succeed. In the case of Sengun, they want to leverage his passing skillset by making him an offensive hub. That’s difficult to do when you have ball-dominant guards in Jalen Green and Kevin Porter Jr., who thrive out of isolation and are trying to make progress leading pick-and-rolls.
Fernando is a much more limited player, but he fits better right now with the starters because he screens/rolls hard and plays above the rim as an alleyoop threat — it’s been fairly apparent in the preseason how the guards use him. While not a great defender, Fernando also is more of a rim protector than Sengun.
Secondly, Sengun needs to adapt more to the NBA game. The Rockets very much believe in his prospects — he’s only 20 years old — and they still consider him the best five on the roster. But the NBA is a much different game than EuroBasket, which is where he spent more of his offseason focus. The days of just dumping the ball into a post player seem to be dwindling in the NBA. He’s got to get quicker, stronger, tougher — but most important of all, he’s got to shoot the ball better from range.
In a culture where coming off the “bench” is considered a demerit (it shouldn’t be), you have to explain the reasons why — but keep in mind, his minutes will still be significant. I expect he will likely get in the 24-26 range this year, an increase over the 20.7 he got last season. He’s still going to have plenty of opportunity to develop.
My two cents: I give the Rockets props for doing this so early. It’s been apparent to me that the Rockets have multiple players who would be considered secondary playmakers, and to maximize their skills, they need the ball in their hands (imagine if the Rockets drafted Paolo Banchero … grateful every day that Jabari fell to #3!). This hopefully allows for that. Playing Sengun off the bench gives you an opportunity to play a variety of ways and also covers up a current deficiency at backup point guard.
I don’t want to watch Sengun follow the guards around — I want to watch peak Sengun running offensive sets.
Overall, I like it — let’s get the season going.
Rockets extend Kevin Porter Jr. to incredibly team-friendly deal
What’s being reported as a four-year, $82M extension is actually a one-year, $15.8M extension with full club control
Today was the deadline for the Rockets to extend Kevin Porter Jr. The Rockets have had an offer extended to KPJ for some time and the word behind the scenes was it was likely this day would come and go without a deal.
That changed in a hurry Monday morning.
The Rockets and KPJ agreed on a reported four-year, $82 million extension — at least, that was the initial report.
In truth, the deal is not that at all and is more the spin of an agent. Only the first year of the deal, at just $15.9 million, is guaranteed. The Rockets have until June 30, 2024 to decide if they want to pick up the two following years (2024-25 and 2025-26).
It’s clear KPJ accepted the Rockets longstanding offer because it is one extremely team-friendly deal.
What's being reported: KPJ signed a four-year, $82M deal extension.
What actually happened: KPJ signed a one-year, $15.8M extension.
Rockets have two years to watch KPJ's progress and decide if they want to pick up an additional two-year extension or not.
— ClutchFans (@clutchfans) October 17, 2022
“We value the player and the person that Scoot is becoming and are eager to invest in him and his journey,” said Rockets General Manager Rafael Stone. “He’s expressed how happy he is to be with this organization and has shown his commitment to putting in the work both on and off the court. We are excited for the opportunity to continue to build something special with him.”
In essence, the structure of this contract fully acknowledges the risks associated with betting on KPJ. It’s not the money you’re giving him — it’s the years. If you give him a long-term deal with fully guaranteed money and things go south, that is an unmovable contract — a cardinal sin to give out when your rebuild is going so phenomenally well after the drafting of Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr.
This deal reflects that risk and comes close to eliminating it. The Rockets control all the upside. If KPJ pans out beautifully, they can extend him — it’s 100% their decision. If he doesn’t pan out or the roster/core shifts in an unexpected way — such as being in position to draft Scoot Henderson — KPJ could be a large expiring contract next season.
The Rockets basically signed KPJ to the Sam Hinkie Special (contracts you saw with Chandler Parsons, Jae’Sean Tate and KJ Martin), but with much bigger dollar figures.
For KPJ’s part, there is a small win — he’s gets almost $16 million next season and is signed for this season ($3.2M) and next. He doesn’t have to worry about the finances as much while still staying highly motivated to play well. He didn’t fully bet on himself and take this to restricted free agency, but he did still take a deal that incentivizes him to earn it. But this deal isn’t in the same stratosphere as the ones you saw signed by Tyler Herro and Jordan Poole.
The bottom line: There are risks to signing KPJ that were mitigated by this unique contract structure. If you are a fan of the Rockets remaining flexible as they strive to build a contender, you should be thrilled with this. Big win for Stone and the Houston front office.
KJ Martin reportedly drawing interest on trade market
Rockets have had “ongoing talks” with Phoenix Suns about the third-year forward
According to Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports, the Phoenix Suns have had “ongoing talks” about acquiring Rockets forward KJ Martin while Portland and Miami are “two other known teams with interest in Martin.”
There has been talk of trading KJ since before the summer when his father, former NBA All-Star Kenyon Martin, reportedly sought a trade for his son. With the Rockets holding multiple picks in the draft, it appeared the writing was on the wall for reduced minutes for KJ.
Martin has looked like a trusted member of Stephen Silas’ rotation so far in preseason. KJ has played in all three games, averaging 11.0 points and 4.0 rebounds in 26.0 minutes, hitting 5-11 from deep.
At the same time, Jabari Smith Jr. is the future, Jae’Sean Tate seems to be the coaching staff darling and Tari Eason has exploded onto the scene. Minutes for KJ could be available but they will be hard to come by.
If the Rockets are going to trade KJ, what should be the asking price? My feeling is a “good” second-round pick (one that could be expected to be in the 31-42 range) would be the goal. If the Rockets were offered a lottery-protected first-round pick, I think that would be a steal right now for Houston.
What could make more sense is if the Rockets combined KJ Martin with a player like Eric Gordon, especially given the goals of suitors like the Suns, Blazers and Heat.