Connect with us
 

Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: 2021 Post-Draft Edition

Breaking down the Houston Rockets complete salary cap situation as they finish the draft and head towards free agency

Published

on

Rafael Stone Houston Rockets general manager

Well, … it’s been a while.

Since my last Salary Cap Update, the Houston Rockets re-structured their team (and mortgaged part of their future) for Russell Westbrook and then – after a one-year failed experiment – blew it all up by trading Westbrook, P.J. Tucker and franchise cornerstone James Harden.

What was left was a hodgepodge of veterans and a few intriguing young players that stumbled to the league’s worst record in 2020-21 (17-55). But with a little lottery luck, the Rockets dodged a potentially disastrous pick swap with the Oklahoma City Thunder and landed the #2 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft.

On Thursday night, Houston drafted Jalen Green (#2), Alperen Sengun (#16), Usman Garuba (#23) and Josh Christopher (#24). The whopping FOUR first round picks were largely the product of a series of trades negotiated by Rockets GM Rafael Stone and his front office.

Advertisement

So, with the draft now over, let’s take a look at the Rockets’ cap situation heading into free agency.

Player Salary, Exceptions and Available Cap Room

The Houston Rockets currently have the following player salary commitments, cap holds and salary cap exceptions available for the 2020-21 season (assuming that the league’s current projection of a $112.4 million salary cap is accurate and that the rookies all get 120% of their rookie scale salaries):

Player salary commitments: John Wall ($44.3 million), Eric Gordon (18.2 million), Christian Wood ($13.7 million), Green ($9.0 million), D.J. Augustin ($7.0 million), Danuel House ($3.9 million), Sengun ($3.2 million), Garuba ($2.4 million), Christopher ($2.3 million), Kevin Porter, Jr. ($1.8 million), Khyri Thomas ($1.8 million, non-guaranteed), Jae’Sean Tate ($1.5 million, non-guaranteed), K.J. Martin ($1.5 million, expected to be guaranteed shortly after this publishes) and the long-since-waived Troy Williams ($122,741, like clockwork).

Cap holds: Kelly Olynyk ($18.9 million – Rockets hold full Bird rights), Dante Exum ($18.2 million – Rockets hold full Bird rights), D.J. Wilson (potential restricted free agent; $13.6 million – Rockets hold full Bird rights), Avery Bradley ($5.9 million team option; $11.2 million cap hold if option is not exercised – Rockets hold Early Bird rights), David Nwaba ($1.7 million – Rockets hold Early Bird rights), Sterling Brown ($1.7 million – Rockets only have Non-Bird rights), Armoni Brooks (potential restricted free agent; $1.5 million – coming off a two-way contract) and Anthony Lamb (potential restricted free agent – coming off a two-way contract).

Advertisement

Other Salary Cap Exceptions: If Houston operates over the salary cap this summer (extremely likely), the Rockets will have access to the Non-Taxpayer Mid-Level Exception (NT-MLE, expected to be around $9.5 million, the use of which would impose a hard cap at the “apron” level – currently projected at about $136.6 million). Although it would also impose a hard cap at the apron level, Houston could possibly use the Bi-Annual Exception (BAE, expected to be around $3.7 million), since they did not use it last summer. In the unlikely event that the Rockets use cap room this summer, they could instead have the Room Exception of around $4.9 million at their disposal. Assuming they operate over the salary cap, the Rockets will also have a few traded player exceptions (TPEs) left over from earlier trades, most notably for $8.2 million (from the Victor Oladipo trade) and $5.0 million (left over from the Harden trade).

Given their salary commitments, Bird rights to their free agents and additional cap exceptions available to them, the Rockets should operate over the cap for the 2021-22 season. Barring trades (or cheaping out on the rookie scale contracts), the Rockets could only create around $4 million in cap room in the alternative.

Preliminary Internal Decisions

KJ Martin Ahead of the NBA’s free agent season, Stone and his team will need to address some internal matters.

Most immediately, Houston needs to decide whether to extend qualifying offers to its younger free agents. The largest qualifying offer would go to Wilson, but given the prohibitive amount ($6.4 million), it is unlikely they will give him one. They will still retain his Bird rights, however.

The Rockets can make each of Brooks and Lamb – coming off a two-way contract – a restricted free agent by extending him another two-way contract for next year (with $50,000 guaranteed) as a qualifying offer. Given their relative performances last season, it seems more likely that Brooks would receive a qualifying offer than Lamb.

Advertisement

The Rockets also need to decide whether to fully guarantee Martin’s salary for the coming season. As noted above – and given his terrific play last season – this one is a no-brainer.

Lastly, the Rockets need to decide whether to exercise their team option on Bradley. Given his less-than-stellar play last season, that option will likely go unexercised.

Internal Free Agent Decisions

Houston will have some decisions to make with their own free agents heading into August, including how to prioritize which free agents to bring back.

Kelly Olynyk Kelly Olynyk: Olynyk shocked most Rockets fans when he played at a near All-Star caliber level after arriving in the much-maligned Oladipo trade. He should be one of the more coveted free agent big men this summer. However, in today’s NBA landscape, non-elite big men are not necessarily commanding top-dollar. If a playoff contender isn’t offering Olynyk more than the NT-MLE, Houston may be able to retain him on a short-term (one- or two-year) deal at a premium. Figure something in the $12 million to $16 million range per season, possibly even more.

David Nwaba: In one of his final roster moves as Rockets GM, Daryl Morey (probably with input from Stone) signed a then-injured Nwaba to a two-year deal, likely envisioning the very scenario that the Rockets face now. Because he was signed to a two-year deal, Houston retains Early Bird rights to Nwaba and is able to offer him a multi-year deal in the $10 million per season range. While Nwaba played extremely well for the Rockets before injuries forced him to shut down his season, it is unlikely that he will command that much on the open market. Still, at least one smart GM of a playoff contender should make Nwaba a competitive offer this summer. And given the Rockets’ recent glut of guards/wings, it appears less likely now that Houston will have room on the roster for Nwaba.

Advertisement

Sterling Brown: Brown ended up being a terrific value for the Rockets, playing on a one-year veteran’s minimum deal. He shot the ball well from 3-point range and displayed some ballhandling and defensive skill. However, between the glut of guards on Houston’s roster, the Rockets’ lack of meaningful Bird rights and his obvious appeal to playoff teams as a nice bench addition, it seems likely that Brown will not return. Expect Brown to get offers in excess of the veteran’s minimum.

Avery Bradley: Bradley never found his shooting touch in Houston after coming over in the Oladipo trade. It is highly unlikely his team option will be picked up or that the Rockets will make him a serious offer in free agency. He is expected to latch on with a contender, perhaps on a veteran’s minimum deal or for the BAE.

D.J. Wilson: While not expected to receive a qualifying offer, Wilson did show some flashes of why the Milwaukee Bucks used a first-round pick on him four years ago. Depending on what other roster moves the Rockets make this summer, the door may be open for Wilson to return, albeit likely on a veteran’s minimum deal.

Dante Exum: Much to this author’s chagrin, Exum never played a minute for the Rockets after coming over as salary filler in the Harden trade. Once a highly-touted lottery pick, Exum has been ravaged by injuries in his career and relegated to being a defensive stopper on the perimeter rather than the star he was supposed to be. While he may still have enough intriguing skills to entice the Rockets to want him back, that prospect seems unlikely at this point.

Armoni Brooks and Anthony Lamb: As noted above, Brooks has a chance to receive a qualifying offer, while Lamb probably won’t. Depending on their performance in summer league, one or both could receive a training camp invite in September. Their prospects remain cloudy.

Advertisement

Michael Frazier: Believe it or not, the Rockets still retain Frazier’s free agent rights. Houston had to renounce all their other “old” free agent rights in order to complete the Tucker trade in a cap-favorable manner, but Frazier’s cap hold was negligible and could be kept on the books. That said, don’t expect him to make a triumphant return to Houston.

Sergio Llull Issuf Sanon (a/k/a the Sergio Llull Memorial Draft Rights Held Spot): You didn’t think this author would allow a Salary Cap Update to go by without a Llull reference, did you? While Llull’s draft rights now sit with the New York Knicks, they received the draft rights to Sanon in that same trade. Admittedly, Sanon’s game is fairly unremarkable, so his prospects of being a Houston Rocket are slim.

Outside Free Agents

Unlike in prior offseasons during the Harden Era, Houston is unlikely to be an attractive destination for many of the league’s veteran free agents. With only the NT-MLE to offer, the Rockets won’t be able to afford any of the top free agents, nor will they be able to compete with comparable offers from playoff contenders. Most likely, the best players to agree to sign in Houston would probably be on overpays, something that seems antithetical to the Rockets’ current philosophy.

While it seemed likely a week ago that the Rockets would have at least one frontcourt opening to fill in free agency, the drafting of Sengun and Garuba – both of whom should receive frontcourt minutes next season along with Martin – and the fit of bringing back Olynyk (who is probably better than any outside free agent willing to sign in Houston this summer) now make it less likely that such a signing is needed. But for argument’s sake, the Rockets could possibly have interest in a player like JaMychal Green if he can’t come to terms with the Denver Nuggets on a new deal.

Like in recent years’ past, it may be good practice for the Rockets to hold onto at least a portion of their NT-MLE in order to either play the buyout market or sign a young free agent to a multi-year deal (as they did with Thomas this past season).

Advertisement

This author will leave it to others (or at least won’t cover it here) as to which particular free agents the Rockets will pursue this summer.

The Taxman Won’t Cometh

With the trade of Harden also went any chance of Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta paying any luxury tax for the foreseeable future. Contrary to popular belief, this author is still convinced that Fertitta would have been willing to pay the tax had the Harden-Westbrook pairing been more successful in 2019-20. But alas, it was not and he did not.

Barring any trades or free agent signings, and assuming that Bradley’s option is declined and the rookies get 120% of their rookie scale, the Houston Rockets should have around $25 million in room below the luxury tax threshold to spend next season. (Keep in mind, however, that the Rockets are still limited on what they can offer outside free agents in an outright signing to the NT-MLE amount.) But Houston already has 13 players on its roster, and with two-way players once again allowed to stay with their NBA teams all season, it is quite possible the Rockets will only carry 14 players on their 15-man roster for much of the season. If they re-sign Olynyk, that’s 14 players.

One possible strategy for a team hoping to develop its young core with as many minutes as possible is to keep that 15th roster spot open for future trades, utilizing its TPEs to take on other teams’ unwanted salary for the price of future draft picks.

Advertisement

While this article primarily focuses on the 2021 offseason, there is a chance that the Rockets could open up a massive amount of cap room in the summer of 2023, when Wall and Gordon come off the books. Hence, any dead money taken on in trades this summer should probably not extend beyond 2023. But 2023 plans are a topic for another article.

Conclusion

After blowing up a contender, the Houston Rockets now find themselves picking up the pieces. While they found a few pieces last season and just added up to four more (including Green, the biggest piece of all), there is still much work to do. Armed with cap exceptions, TPEs and a treasure trove of future picks, the Rockets should be able to further bolster their roster in the coming years to create another contender.

Until then, we wait.

Wait, and enjoy the ride.

Advertisement

Continue Reading
Advertisement

Houston Rockets

Houston a potential landing spot for Ben Simmons post-buyout?

Published

on

By

Ben Simmons Houston Rockets

ESPN NBA analyst Brian Windhorst said on Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline show that Brooklyn Nets forward Ben Simmons is working on a buyout and the Houston Rockets is a potential landing spot for him.

“Cleveland and Houston are two situations for Ben Simmons,” said Windhorst.

Rockets coach Ime Udoka was an assistant coach in Philadelphia in 2019-20 when Simmons was with the Sixers, before injuries took a significant toll. In fact, Udoka, when speaking about Amen Thompson earlier this season, brought up some comparisons to Simmons.

“The skill set is there, and it’s something that’s unique with his speed, athleticism, size, passing ability, and all those things,” said Udoka of Thompson. “I coached somebody, Ben Simmons, who had similar traits… as far as size and ability to push the pace, and find guys and finish. There are some similarities there.”

Both Thompson and Simmons are known for their elite athleticism, defensive versatility, and ability to create opportunities in transition.

However, can Simmons help the Rockets today? That’s the tough question.

Advertisement

Simmons has played in 33 games this season, averaging 6.2 points, 6.9 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals and 0.5 blocks in 25 minutes a night. He does not shoot threes (like, at all) — he has only attempted two threes in the past three seasons combined.

Ideally, he does not play in front of your young forwards of Amen, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr. and on that basis alone, I think I would pass. But, Ime loves defensive dogs and he could use some extra ballhandling on the roster. You can see that there’s little in the way of offensive organization when Fred VanVleet is out.

There would be a comical full circle moment though if the Rockets did sign Ben Simmons, considering the Rockets were heavily criticized for trading James Harden in 2021 to Brooklyn instead of to Philadelphia for Simmons. The Rockets clearly made the right choice there.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Houston Rockets

Rockets pick up another second-round pick in deal with Hawks

Published

on

By

Cody Zeller

The Houston Rockets are working the phones to do a little more asset management.

After acquiring a second-round pick from Boston to take on Jaden Springer’s salary, the Rockets made another similar move, absorbing the contract of Cody Zeller this season to get back a 2028 second-round pick.

Ironically, that pick is Houston’s own 2028 second-round pick that the Rockets sent to Atlanta in 2023.

The Rockets waived Springer to make roster room for Zeller. They will likely do the same with Zeller in order to make room for a buyout signing in the coming days or weeks.

It’s a small move but it’s another good one on the margins. These second-round picks add up. The two the Rockets got in the past couple of days — Boston’s 2030 second and Houston’s own 2028 second — could be eventually combined in a deal that nets the Rockets a solid role player down the line. Houston did exactly this last season when they acquired Steven Adams from Memphis.

So quick grade? Easy A. Solid asset management work by Rockets GM Rafael Stone and credit to Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta for being willing to spend millions just to get some extra seconds.

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Houston Rockets

Rockets Pick Up Jaden Springer, Second-Round Pick in Trade with Celtics

Published

on

By

Jaden Springer Houston Rockets

The NBA Trade Deadline is just over 24 hours away but the Houston Rockets have already made a move.

OK, it’s not that kind of move, but Rafael Stone and the front office did make a trade on the margins on Wednesday, picking up Jaden Springer and a 2030 second-round pick from Boston.

The Rockets leveraged their open roster spot and salary situation to take the contract of Springer off the hands of the Celtics, who are saving a ton in luxury tax payments by making the move. It’s smart business by the Rockets, who are doing this for a second-round pick in 2030.

Now, usually a Celtics second-round pick is not worth much, but this is five years out so it’s a quality asset as far as seconds go. In today’s NBA, these kinds of picks have grown in value as key assets for being in a position to land solid role players. With the Rockets planning on being a playoff team for the next several years, this addition could prove useful in addressing future roster needs.

Advertisement

This trade framework between Houston and Boston may not be new to you. If you watched or listened to the ClutchFans Podcast on Monday, David Weiner, aka BimaThug, literally called out this exact possibility of the Rockets taking on Springer and landing a second-round pick.

As for Springer himself, this was a player I liked quite a bit in the 2021 NBA Draft and I wanted the Rockets to take him at the Josh Christopher spot. He has not quite panned out just yet. He’s got good size for a point guard (6-foot-4, 200 pounds) but is not a strong playmaker and has not been incredibly accurate as a shooter (25.0% from three).

But he does have good defensive potential. Does that get Ime Udoka’s attention at all? Possibly, but the Rockets likely will get an end-of-the-bench look at him for the rest of the season before his contract expires this offseason.

Advertisement

Continue Reading

Houston Rockets

Podcast: Doncic to Lakers, Fox to Spurs and the Trade Deadline for the Houston Rockets

Published

on

By

Luka Doncic Traded To Lakers, De'Aaron Fox Traded to Spurs, Rockets Trade Deadline and Impact

Luka Doncic traded to the Lakers? De’Aaron Fox traded to the Spurs?

What a crazy few days it has been, and the NBA trade deadline (Feb 6) hasn’t even arrived yet. The league is already turned upside down, so what does this mean for the Western Conference and the Houston Rockets?

Join Dave Hardisty and David Weiner on this episode of the ClutchFans Podcast as they break down:

  • The shocking Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers
  • Could the Rockets have had a legit chance at Luka?
  • How De’Aaron Fox changes San Antonio’s future
  • The Rockets owning Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick
  • What the Rockets could do at the NBA trade deadline
Advertisement

The podcast premieres at 7:30am CT! Come join us!



CLUTCHFANS PODCAST: SPOTIFY | APPLE

Continue Reading

Houston Rockets

How the stunning Luka Doncic trade to the Lakers impacts the Houston Rockets

Dallas did the unthinkable by trading their superstar – what does this mean for Houston now and in the future?

Published

on

By

Luka Doncic Traded To Lakers

Late Saturday night, the Dallas Mavericks traded Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis and a 2029 first-round pick.

I know, it doesn’t seem even remotely real. This is the most shocking sports trade of my lifetime. I can’t think of one bigger nor one more unbelievable.

The Mavericks have to know something about Doncic that we don’t. It’s being reported that his poor conditioning, weight issues and looming supermax contract were the biggest factors, but this is a young phenom who is hypercompetitive. He might very well haunt Dallas for a long time.

It’s an absolutely fascinating move. So how does this impact the Houston Rockets now and in the future?

Advertisement

The Rockets Couldn’t Get Luka?

The first reaction is of course, “Luka Doncic was available?!?” That leads to the inevitable question of why the Rockets didn’t get involved.

The simple answer is they didn’t know. Nobody really did — and it would not have mattered if they did.

This is a classic example of how sometimes in the NBA, it doesn’t matter how big of a treasure trove of assets you have. What matters is having the right single asset. Dallas Mavericks GM Nico Harrison wanted Anthony Davis and that was that. The Rockets, with all their youth and picks, would not have been able to compete for Luka because they couldn’t help Harrison with his goals.

At the same time, this has to be maddening for Rockets GM Rafael Stone and the Houston front office, who have tried to position themselves for just such a trade when it became available. Doncic is 25-years old and was seen as an untouchable top-5 player, a dream target, the kind of player teams fantasize about stealing — yet the Mavericks booted him out of Dallas like a bad tenant in the dead of night. No league-wide bidding war — just unceremoniously traded while 28 other teams sat clueless, never even getting a shot at the prize.

Advertisement

Dallas could have had their pick of top young players and draft choices had they made this an actual competition so this trade will be questioned and second-guessed for many years to come.

Rockets Control Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick

There is a silver lining for the Rockets and that’s the control they have on Dallas’ 2029 first-round pick (unprotected).

Dallas traded that pick to Brooklyn in the deal for Kyrie Irving in 2023. Brooklyn gave control of the pick to Houston as part of the deal to get their own picks (2025, 2026) back this past summer. So the Rockets control the best two first-round picks (unprotected) out of Phoenix, Dallas and Houston’s own first in the year 2029.

In this deal, Dallas’ core got older. Irving will turn 37 in the 2028-29 season and Davis will turn 36. This is four years away so a tremendous amount can change between now and then, but on paper it is a strong positive indicator for the value of that pick.

Keep in mind, the Rockets are unlikely to actually use this draft pick — they’re more likely to trade it to strengthen their current roster. So, what actually happens to Dallas four years from now isn’t as important as how teams around the league perceive the value of that pick right now and in the near future.

This looks like a potential win for Stone, Patrick Fertitta and the Rockets front office.

Advertisement

Impact on Western Conference

Both the Lakers (currently 5th seed) and Mavericks (currently 8th) are potential first-round matchups for the Rockets this postseason.

Los Angeles: The Lakers may have taken a short-term hit, but if Luka’s conditioning issues can be fixed, this trade completely revitalizes their future. Before this move, Los Angeles was still relying on a 40-year-old LeBron James with no clear path forward, especially with their draft picks already limited. Now, they’ve managed to land Doncic, who put up 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds per game last season at just 24 years old, in exchange for a 31-year-old Davis. That’s highway robbery.

The NBA just handed the Lakers another superstar lifeline (like Shaquille O’Neal, like Pau Gasol, like Chris “Basketball Reasons” Paul, like LeBron James, like Anthony Davis) and they took full advantage.

But right now, this is an odd fit. The Lakers have no size. More moves have to be on the way here so stay tuned on how the Rockets match up with this squad.

Advertisement

Dallas: Luka had been out for over a month and the Mavericks have been slipping. Dallas says they want to focus on defense and they do get that in Davis. They went from relying on two forces on the perimeter to putting the ball in Kyrie’s hands as the leader and leveraging their size in Davis, Derrick Lively (when he returns healthy) and Daniel Gafford.

The Rockets have excellent perimeter defenders, but their lack of interior rim protection makes it tough to handle Davis and any additional size next to him. This could be a real challenge for Alperen Sengun. While Sengun offensively dominated Gafford in their last matchup, he struggled against Lively — and Davis is on a whole different level.

But can Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Dillon Brooks take out the head of the snake in Kyrie? Three-point shooting efficiency will likely be the key against Dallas. I think this is a tougher matchup for Houston right now, but long term, I think this really helps the Rockets. We will find out soon as Houston faces the Mavericks (without Lively) this Saturday.

One last potentially positive note to close on: Texas is fertile ground for free agents. No state income tax and warm weather have always been draws for NBA players, so having young superstars like Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic playing for your two rivals in the state had the potential to make things problematic when recruiting players trying to win a championship. Dallas loses that draw and becomes a team with a much smaller window… and who wants to live in San Antonio over Houston?

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Trending