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Houston Rockets

The Limited Trade Market For Thomas Robinson

Yahoo! Sports reported Thursday night that the Rockets are looking to trade Thomas Robinson and “plan to accept the best offer” to get his salary off the books to free up enough money to offer a full max deal to Dwight Howard.

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Yahoo! Sports reported Thursday night that the Rockets are looking to trade Thomas Robinson and “plan to accept the best offer” to get his salary off the books to free up enough money to offer a full max deal to Dwight Howard.

Thomas Robinson

If Dwight Howard to Houston gets serious, trading Thomas Robinson is almost inevitable

Is anyone else getting the feeling that Adrian Wojnarowski has become the Craigslist for today’s NBA general managers? There seems to be no better way to broadcast that you have a player for sale. I think it’s a pretty good bet that this was leaked for a reason — it has a very similar vibe to the “Rockets are shopping Yao Ming” story of a few years ago.

Still, while it is news that the Rockets have placed T-Rob on the trade market, it was not unexpected.

Robinson has the largest salary ($3.5+ million next year) of any player outside of your core rotation and likely has the best trade value. Depending on where the new salary cap is drawn for 2013-14, his contract on the books could be the difference between the Rockets being able to offer a max deal to Dwight Howard (starting at $20.5M) or just a very high salary ($17-19M).

The problem is other teams are well aware of that last fact and it could be used against the Rockets. This is a similar situation to the one the Miami Heat were in with Michael Beasley in 2010. Needing to clear a little extra cap space to make room for both LeBron James and Chris Bosh, Miami dumped Beasley to Minnesota just two years after he was the much-hyped #2 pick of the 2008 NBA Draft.

As a player, the Rockets still like Robinson, but their team goals could be shifting quickly from future contention to present contention. Robinson could become a top-level rebounder, but he has a long ways to go to develop much else, especially on the offensive end. He wasn’t a strong pick-and-roll guy out of Kansas and doesn’t have much shooting range, making it hard to see him getting important playing time at a position on this team that currently requires both of those skills.

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So what are the Rockets looking for in a trade partner? The market is limited because the Rockets need a team under the cap (or will be on July 10th anyway) or a team holding a large enough trade exception or non-guaranteed salaries to absorb T-Rob outright. After that, you’re looking for teams that hold future assets, such as a 2014 first or second round pick that would not count against this year’s cap. Given that limited market, cap room alone (along with perhaps a future pick) may be the best return the Rockets can get given their offseason goals. I wouldn’t be surprised if attaching Royce White to unload him (in lieu of getting a draft pick in return) is discussed as well.

Here are the teams that make the most sense:

1. Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte sticks out as the most logical trade partner. The soon-to-be Hornets strongly considered Robinson with the #2 pick last year and are in the team-building phase where they are looking for as many young building blocks as they can get. They will be under the cap and have plenty of future draft considerations, including a top-8 protected 2014 first rounder from Detroit (not happening) and a top-12 protected 2014 first rounder from Portland. I would consider that Blazers pick to be the high end (if not too high) of what the Rockets could net for T-Rob. A team of Bismack Biyombo, Robinson, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker and possibly Victor Oladipo (with the 4th pick this year) would be raw and lose a lot of games, but it has a lot of defensive potential down the line.

2. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavs have the cap room right now to make a move for Robinson if they wanted — they don’t have to wait until July 10th. Cleveland owns a top-12 protected pick from the Kings in 2014, but what might make them more of a match is they own the first and third picks of the second round (#31 and #33, non-guaranteed deals) in this year’s draft. It’s suspected that the Cavs, like the Rockets, are trying to package their assets for a second star around Kyrie Irving, and they also have a similar player to Robinson in Tristan Thompson, but everything else is a match.

3. Phoenix Suns
The Suns already united the Morris Twins… why not go full #TeamFOE Kansas reunion? Phoenix, like Charlotte, simply needs as many irons in the fire as possible when it comes to young talent. They likely will deal power forward Luis Scola this offseason. They are under the cap right now and also own a protected first rounder from Minnesota next year and the Lakers’ 2015 first rounder (top 5-protected).

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4. Orlando Magic
The Magic aren’t winning a championship anytime soon. They lost 49 of their last 57 games as GM Rob Hennigan is trying to stockpile young talent to rebuild. They will be under the cap and could buy a prospect here cheap and watch him develop with playing time, similar to what they did in February with Tobias Harris. Orlando also owns future firsts from the Nuggets, Sixers and Lakers.

5. Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks will have a crazy amount of cap room in July and, like the Rockets, are going after Howard and Chris Paul, but more than one team is going to fall short in that pursuit. If they lose out (and especially if they let Josh Smith walk), they could very well be interested in a power forward prospect like Robinson. While it’s not likely the Hawks would consider this until they are out of the free agent sweepstakes, the unguaranteed contract of DeShawn Stevenson ($2.25 million) could be a key piece in getting a deal done in June if they so choose. Atlanta owns both of the Rockets’ draft picks this year (#18 and #50) and also has draft pick swap rights the next two years with Brooklyn.

Armed with a bizarre fascination for Mario Elie and a deep love of the Houston Rockets, Dave Hardisty started ClutchFans in 1996 under the pen name “Clutch”.

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24 Comments

24 Comments

  1. fyrebear

    May 31, 2013 at 11:43 am

    Not surprised about the Trob “shopping/trade” leak here. Better to do this now to get better value than like the Miami/Beasley situation where their hand was forced. On July 1st, the Rockets want no obstacles in their way to make a full max offer to DH12.

    • clutchfans

      May 31, 2013 at 11:49 am

      fyrebear You’re right. I would tend to think the Rockets will wait until they know, simply because most teams won’t be under the cap until then anyway, but the Rockets aren’t strangers to making the move even if they don’t have a firm commitment for the bigger move.  They amnestied Luis Scola without any guarantees and dumped Kyle Lowry for a future pick as well.  They may simply be OK with the cap room and a pick for T-Rob, knowing that if they do fall short in the Dwight chase that they can use those pieces/flexibility in a bigger move down the line (as they did eventually in landing Harden).

  2. RedRedemption

    May 31, 2013 at 12:48 pm

    I wish we could keep Robinson. He’s extremely raw, but I feel like with the right development he could become at least a serviceable role player. -RedRedemption

    • clutchfans

      May 31, 2013 at 1:52 pm

      @RedRedemption The problem is serviceable role players are guys that Daryl Morey can acquire in his sleep.  I think with a guy like T-Rob, you would hope that some skillset he has can become elite or well above average. Best bet there is rebounding. He’s certainly energetic and athletic, but if he’s not a good fit for a team with a set style that is trying to win 50 games minimum, how does he get the time to develop and (more importantly for the Rockets’ selfish purposes) increase his trade value?

      • RollingWave0720

        June 2, 2013 at 9:35 am

        clutchfans

      • RollingWave0720

        June 2, 2013 at 9:36 am

        Should also note that, Raw players sometimes develop after the end of their rookie contract, which makes it a rather bad deal for the team that held on to said rookie contract ( see Jermaine O’Neal.)

  3. DHYLNP

    May 31, 2013 at 1:03 pm

    Agreed. The Rockets have a VERY specific and VERY immediate need– cap space neccesary to chase a max FA. This limits their leverage and the range of potential trade partners.
    Carl Herrera

    • fyrebear

      May 31, 2013 at 1:47 pm

      DHYLNP That’s why they most likely leaked this Trob shopping info now to maximize their ROI. If the Rockets waited until July, they would have to take much less value back like Miami did with Beasley.

  4. Koolaid

    May 31, 2013 at 1:22 pm

    Royce White for Josh Smith. Set it up Daryl!

  5. Remii

    May 31, 2013 at 2:08 pm

    They should be looking to trade T-Rob regardless the Rockets have too many PFs and he’s not the best one.
    They say there’s a sucker born everyday so if Morey can find a GM who’s willing to trade for Royce… Go for it.

  6. basketballholic

    May 31, 2013 at 4:28 pm

    Nice article.  Just 2 points I’d like to remind you of.  
    Point 1:  The limited trade market for TRob is offset by the limited draft market of this draft class.  Realistically, if TRob was in this draft, he’d be a top 10 pick.  Mark Deeks stated he’d be the #1 pick.  Now, I don’t know about that.  But when I look at the crap shoot of this draft after about pick 6, then I could easily see TRob going in the top 10 here.  Yes, his value is distorted somewhat and lessened somewhat by his rookie campaign.  But it’s no more distorted than trying to figure out if Trey Burke for instance is going to be anything more than DJ Augustin in this draft.  

    Point 2:  We’ve got 4 guys all playing the PF position coming off their rookie deals.  We really don’t have minutes to give 3 of them much less 4.  So, don’t forget there could be more than 1 guy shipped out…and it may not necessarily be Royce White that is shipped out.  Consider the possibilities of trading out 2 of 3 of TRob/DMO/Jones….now what value do you have?  Specifically what draft pick value do you have…either in this draft or in future drafts?  

    I’ll be surprised if we settle for a couple high second rounders in a trade for TRob.  If that’s all the value he has, I wouldn’t be surprised if we went ahead and pulled the trigger to move both DMO/TJones.  2 of the 3 of these guys should get us a lottery first rounder….either in this draft or a future draft….at least.

    • clutchfans

      May 31, 2013 at 4:47 pm

      basketballholic Thanks — good points here. On Point #1, I could be convinced that Thomas Robinson is worth a top ten pick this year, but that’s part of the limited market I’m talking about … that first round pick this year has a cap hit, so unless there is a lot of creativity, the Rockets can’t get both top value and a clean cap wipe. For example, Austin Rivers, the 10th pick last year, had a starting salary of over $2.2M.  So while his current value may be good when compared to this weaker draft, it doesn’t translate to the future picks (2014 is expected to be a strong draft) that you would think the Rockets need to get clean cap room now.
      On point #2, I agree completely. I don’t know if any of the young PFs will be ready to make the jump to 30+ minute a night guy for a contender, which is what the Rockets would be judged as if they sign Dwight (bye bye “youngest team in the league” talk).  I could see a bigger move for a starting PF, but they need to net a little more cap room first somehow to get to the max for Dwight.

      • basketballholic

        May 31, 2013 at 5:41 pm

        clutchfans basketballholic Creativity…..put together the trade…TRob and our 2014 first rounder for the top 10 pick in this year’s draft and a second rounder.  Then execute it this way….Trade TRob for the future second rounder…moves out the salary…allows for the Dwight signing…..then complete the agreed to original deal by trading our 2014 first rounder for the 2013 first round pick we had the other team make for us and they are holding on their roster.

  7. MateoFisher

    May 31, 2013 at 5:09 pm

    Not even a little interest from Detroit or New Orleans? I know both those teams have young bigs with potential already, but I would think both are also still trying to stockpile as much young talent as possible, and would bite at the right price.

  8. DHYLNP

    May 31, 2013 at 6:59 pm

    Atlanta won’t be helping Houston create cap room since they are going after CP+DH. Houston will most likely have traded TRob before ATL is out of the CP+DH pursuit.

  9. carolbmt

    May 31, 2013 at 7:34 pm

    I think T-Rob’s value is only that of a high-mid second round pick.

  10. JonathanLovelace

    June 1, 2013 at 10:29 pm

    What about Sacremento?
    Because that would be hilarious.

    • howlatthemoon

      June 23, 2013 at 4:29 pm

      JonathanLovelace I hope not.

  11. da_juice

    June 1, 2013 at 11:08 pm

    My money’s on him going to the Bobcats. As you said, they were high on him last year’s draft. Biyombo hasn’t turned the corner yet, and for a team as bad as them- they need to acquire as much talent/potential as possible. I can’t see the Hawks taking on salary until after DHo or CP3 have signed (doesn’t help us out then) and Phoenix already has several PFs (and I personally think they will sign Josh Smith). 

    It be great if we could dump Royce and Trob without taking any salary back.

  12. howlatthemoon

    June 23, 2013 at 4:28 pm

    I hope T-Rob gets his chance to shine. I watched a video about all the tragedy he and his sister have been through, and it made me cry….He wanted to be with the Bobcats from the start, I hope he gets his chance with a young team, and he flourishes.

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    April 9, 2016 at 5:49 pm

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Analysis

‘He’s a winner’: In Houston debut, Dorian Finney-Smith makes a clear impact

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Photo via Rockets.com, Houston Rockets

The sample is small, but the results are hard to deny.

In his first three outings with the Rockets, veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith is already making a significant impact.

After struggling defensively for much of December, Houston (20-10) is back in the NBA’s top five in defensive rating over its past three games.

All three were commanding victories, starting with a road victory on Christmas over the Los Angeles Lakers, and they all came with Finney-Smith as a new addition to the rotation. Though he signed with the Rockets in July, Finney-Smith sat out the first 27 games of the 2025-26 regular season due to offseason ankle surgery.

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In 45 minutes over those three games, the Rockets have a +21.0 net rating differential with Finney-Smith on the floor. By defensive rating, they are 14.3 points better when he plays.

Offensively, the versatile 6-foot-7 forward is making 42.9% of his 3-pointers, and that’s coming off a 2024-25 campaign in which he shot a career-best 41.1% from distance (with the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets).

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“He’s an underrated feel-for-the-game guy,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlise said prior to Houston’s victory over Indiana on Monday night. “He’s a quiet connector for a team. He’s about all the right stuff. He’s a winner.”

Carlisle previously coached Finney-Smith for multiple seasons with the Dallas Mavericks.

“It feels amazing,” Finney-Smith said of his health and how he’s currently feeling. “Just happy to be out there. Once I’m on the court, I don’t feel anything. Winning is the most important thing, and I’m just grateful to be out there.”

Ime Udoka, head coach of the Rockets, pointed to “more versatility” as one of the primary benefits of Finney-Smith’s return.

“He is a seasoned veteran, high IQ, and communicator,” Udoka said (via Brian Barefield, Rockets Wire) “Something we have lacked at times is our communication. I think his awareness of every situation is really high. He has been around and done all those roles.”

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For the time being, Finney-Smith is limited to approximately 15 minutes per game. Prior to his three appearances in recent days, he hadn’t played in an NBA game since last April, so the Rockets will be understandably cautious as they ramp up his activity.

But that minutes limitation is expected to gradually increase over the weeks ahead, and the Rockets are hopeful that Finney-Smith will be a major contributor by the time the 2026 Western Conference playoffs begin in April. Ideally, he can replace much of what the Rockets lost when they sent Dillon Brooks to the Phoenix Suns in the Kevin Durant trade.

“Whether it is off the bench or starting, he gives us a little more depth at the wing, and he can guard up or guard down,” Udoka says of Finney-Smith. The 32-year-old is widely known around the league for his “3-and-D” skill set on the wing, when healthy.

With an improving defense, Houston (20-10) enters calendar-year 2026 with three consecutive victories and a spot at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings. Next up is a New Year’s Day clash at Brooklyn, where Finney-Smith played for portions of the past three seasons.

Thursday’s tipoff is at 5:00 p.m. Central, and the game will be televised regionally on Space City Home Network (SCHN) and nationally via NBA League Pass.

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Analysis

Podcast: As trade season begins, will the Rockets make a splash?

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Photo by Ben DuBose, ClutchFans

In this roundtable conversation, ClutchFans Editor Dave Hardisty joins Ben DuBose and Paulo Alves to preview the NBA’s upcoming transaction window and its potential implications for the 16-7 Houston Rockets.

December 15 is when players who signed contracts in the preceding offseason become trade eligible, so the period from Monday until the in-season deadline of February 5, 2026, is likely to be among the most active on the 2025-26 calendar.

Discussion topics include roster needs and potential trade targets across the board, including the likelihood of bigger-name deals (such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and James Harden) and smaller acquisitions along the lines of Keon Ellis, Chris Paul, and Ayo Dosunmu.

The show also explores Houston’s potential desirability on the buyout market and the team’s long-term timeline for title contention, and specifically why those factors might make this a relatively quiet trade window for the Rockets.

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Editor’s note: Hardisty and DuBose also host regular “ClutchFans Live” postgame recap shows on YouTube, while DuBose and Alves are co-hosts of the Rockets LaunchPod podcast, presented by ClutchFans and with support from SportsTalk 790 — official flagship radio station of the Rockets. Tune in to both shows for more coverage!

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Analysis

NBA front-offices poll: Rafael Stone’s Rockets rise to No. 3

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

At 15-6, the Rockets are currently tied for the second-fewest losses in the Western Conference standings, and they own the NBA’s No. 2 net rating.

And yet, just two years ago, Houston was coming off three straight rebuilding seasons with the worst record in the West.

It’s been a remarkable rise under the guidance of general manager Rafael Stone, who has combined the development of young players such as Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard with the acquisition of impact veterans — namely, Kevin Durant, Steven Adams, and the injured Fred VanVleet.

Making matters even better, the Rockets added and developed all that talent while still retaining several high-end future draft assets, to boot. Houston believes that draft equity can make it a sustainable contender for years to come, both in terms of having desirable trade assets and an ability to replenish its roster depth in cost-efficient ways.

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With the 2025-26 regular season now at approximately its quarter pole, The Athletic recently canvassed 36 executives across the league — presidents, general managers, vice presidents, and assistant GMs — to rank the NBA’s top front offices.

Led by Stone, the Rockets’ front office comes in at No. 3, trailing only the last two champions — the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.

“High-end talent, a willingness to be bold, (and) good asset management,” one executive told The Athletic, when asked to sum up the Rockets.

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Houston finished with one first-place vote; six second- and third-place votes, apiece; five fourth-place votes; and three fifth-place votes.

“They have drafted well, built a deep team in a tough Western Conference while managing tax aprons,” said one executive who voted the Rockets second. “(They) hired a good coach (Ime Udoka) and built an overall team identity, then added KD for cheap. From where they were only a few years ago, they have done a good job turning it around.”

Per Sam Amick of The Athletic, Stone “values this young core greatly and has frequently resisted the temptation to reach for overpriced roster shortcuts.” Udoka has an “influential voice” with the front office, as well, Amick adds.

Amick notes that the Durant trade came at a relatively low asset cost, adding that the Rockets are uninterested in pursuing a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies for disgruntled star Ja Morant.

The Athletic’s complete front-office rankings can be viewed here. This time a year ago, in the same exercise, Houston finished in a tie for the No. 11 spot.

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Analysis

With NBA Cup run complete, Rockets add Clippers, Nuggets to December schedule

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

After their Emirates NBA Cup 2025 elimination, the Rockets (12-4) learned two additional December dates for their 2025-26 regular season.

As announced Saturday by the league office, the Los Angeles Clippers (5-14) will visit Houston on Thursday, Dec. 11. Tipoff at Toyota Center will be at 7:00 p.m. Central.

Meanwhile, the Rockets (12-4) will then head to Denver on Monday, Dec. 15, where tipoff versus the Nuggets (13-5) is at 8:30 p.m. Central.

During Cup games, all three of the Clippers, Nuggets, and Rockets went 2-2 in Western Conference group-stage play. Because only four teams out of the 15 in each conference advance to the knockout rounds, a 2-2 record in group games isn’t usually enough to finish among the top four, and that was again the case this year.

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To ensure that all teams play 82 regular-season games, teams who don’t advance then have two additional December games scheduled versus same-conference opponents who also did not advance.

In most cases, these add-on matchups come down to a formula. Taking Houston as an example, each season’s schedule includes two games (one home, one away) versus all East opponents and four games (two home, two away) versus most West opponents.

However, if that was the case for all same-conference opponents, the schedule would be at 86 games in length. So, there is a select group — rotating each year — of same-conference opponents on the docket only three times.

To trim down to 80 games (to account for the possibility of Cup advancement), the six West teams with only three dates on Houston’s initial 2025-26 schedule were the Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Los Angeles Lakers.

Add-on games are typically chosen from that group, and the Thunder and Lakers advanced in Cup play, thus taking them off the table. So, it came down to two teams from the other four.

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Led by James Harden, the reeling Clippers have yet to play Houston this season, though they will meet again on Dec. 23 in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, the Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets enjoyed a close Nov. 21 victory in Houston. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun each struggled in that game.

Now, less than a month later — in a matchup that could prove pivotal in the West standings race — Durant and Sengun (assuming health) will get an opportunity to make amends.

Denver and Houston are currently tied for the No. 3 spot in the West (trailing the Thunder and Lakers), though the Rockets are technically ahead by percentage points due to playing two fewer games. Thus, that Dec. 15 rematch could have significant stakes for both sides.

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Analysis

This Thanksgiving, the Rockets are thankful for Reed Sheppard

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

Relative to their expected formula from the 2025 offseason, the Rockets were missing five rotation players in Wednesday’s Thanksgiving Eve playoff rematch versus the Warriors.

Kevin Durant (personal reasons), Steven Adams (right ankle tendinopathy), and Tari Eason (right oblique strain) were all sidelined, and veterans Fred VanVleet (right knee) and Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle) remain on the shelf after offseason surgeries.

Yet, the Rockets (12-4) still won for a 12th time in 14 games, and they overcame a 14-point road deficit against a high-profile Golden State squad featuring the likes of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

The biggest reason was second-year guard Reed Sheppard, who set career-highs in points (31) and rebounds (9) while making 12-of-25 shots (48.0%), including four 3-pointers.

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“He was big,” said head coach Ime Udoka, whose Rockets won despite shooting below 40% overall and 30% from 3-point range. “Reed really held us together when guys were struggling.”

For the season, Sheppard — a starter for Udoka over the past two games — is averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals in 24.9 minutes per game. He’s shooting 48.8% overall and 45.5% on 3-pointers, with the latter figure coming in at No. 11 among hundreds of qualified NBA players.

But the advanced metrics are even more impressive. Per Basketball Reference, here’s where Sheppard ranks among his NBA peers in several impact categories:

• Box plus/minus (BPM): No. 5 (7.3)
• Defensive BPM: No. 6 (2.7)
• Offensive BPM: No. 15 (4.6)
• Win shares per 48 minutes: No. 10 (.208)
• Value over replacement player (VORP): No. 16 (0.9)
• True shooting (TS): No. 42 (62.9%)
• Player efficiency rating (PER): No. 40 (19.6)
• Steal percentage: No. 5 (3.3%)

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The only players with a superior BPM are a quartet of annual Most Valuable Player (MVP) frontrunners in Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic. At the moment, Sheppard is the league’s highest-rated American player!

To say the least, those are remarkable efficiency metrics for a 21-year-old in his second NBA season. And it’s not as if Sheppard is posting those in low-leverage minutes, as evidenced by the key plays he made in the fourth quarter to help put the Warriors away.

“Defensively is where he’s shown the most improvement, overall,” Udoka said from San Francisco. “I think he’s taking on the challenge. The blow-bys are getting less and less. He’s catching up with the physicality of the game. Teams are going to try to attack him, at times, but like we said last year and during this summer, make them go east and west and stay in front of them. Help will come. He’s doing a great job of that.”

Sixteen games in, it’s no longer a particularly small sample. Rounding, it’s actually 20% of the 82-game regular season!

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Assuming relative health, the 2025-26 Rockets had a high floor entering the season due to the All-Star presence of Durant and Alperen Sengun. But whether they could achieve a championship ceiling likely depended on further leaps from young players — most notably, the high-upside ones like Sheppard and Amen Thompson.

With Durant out, Thompson was the headliner in Monday’s road victory in Phoenix, and Sheppard stole the show two nights later at Golden State.

For everyone surrounding the organization, it’s an appropriate time to be thankful. With these leaps being shown from players who are extremely young and still improving, the Rockets appear set up to be a force in the Western Conference for quite some time.

“It’s going to be exciting when we get fully healthy and whole,” Udoka surmised.

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