We have almost arrived to the oasis.
For over two years, the “2023 Offseason” has been circled on the calendar as the turning point, the time when the Houston Rockets will switch gears and make winning a priority. With potentially $60 million in cap room and a top draft pick coming, this is the moment of truth that Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office pitched to the Fertittas when the rebuild began.
Does that mean the Rockets are going to magically start winning next season? Not necessarily. But it does mean we won’t see Daishen Nix run the point for 36 minutes in the name of player development. They want to win.
It’s very tough to know what will happen this offseason, given the unknown variables. The Rockets could land a top-two pick, which would bring them Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, radically boosting their future. James Harden could opt to return, which also significantly boosts their near-term prospects.
But regardless of whether or not luck presents a “lifeboat” (Harden, Wemby, Scoot), here are some things I believe will happen.
Also, if you have been joining us in RocketsWatch all season, first of all, thank you! We greatly appreciate all the fan support this season. But if you’ve stuck around through a tough season, you know that none of this will come as a surprise. I have been talking about these predictions since January.
Stephen Silas is going to be let go this offseason.
The original plan was for Silas to coach this season and start the next, getting a shot once the Rockets were making winning their top priority. But the bar was low this season and he still fell short. There were several times where the team needed a stronger hand and it wasn’t there. The roster wasn’t built to win, but there is no argument to be made that coaching did anything to enhance the situation.
It’s important to point out that Silas got a raw deal, coming to Houston under different circumstances expecting to coach a veteran team. But this is the hand that was dealt and the Rockets have to play it. Silas may be a fine coach, but he’s not the right coach for this team and that’s all that matters at this stage.
Ownership was ready to move on by midseason, but a variety of factors have led to him finishing the year. But this is going to be it. They sorely need fresh eyes and a different voice.
Confidence Level: 100%
The Rockets got Kevin Porter Jr. for free from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021, but he’s been anything but since.
Houston paid nearly $100 million to John Wall to stay at home so they could groom KPJ as their future point guard. They also signed Porter Jr to a team-friendly four-year deal despite the fact that a much more team-friendly restricted free agency was on deck.
Porter Jr. has gotten better and more comfortable at the lead guard spot in two-plus seasons, which could bode well for his future here, but it’s not near enough. He lacks ability to make advanced reads, which is one of the reasons the Rockets are dead last in corner three-point attempts. His tendency is to isolate, which is his strength, and that can create a lot of selfish basketball. In essence, the Rockets have been starting a pair of shooting guards.
The Rockets love them some KPJ, particularly Stone, so I’m not saying he’s done here. He could thrive in an alternate role, if he embraces it. But the Rockets want to make a leap next season, the first year they are on the hook to Oklahoma City for their first-round pick from the costly Russell Westbrook trade. You’re probably not going to make a bigger jump than by improving the on-court leader spot.
Confidence Level: 80%
You either believe Alperen Sengun is the next Nikola Jokic or he’s a defensive liability that is too much trouble to build around. There doesn’t seem to be much in between.
Sengun is incredibly gifted offensively and is only 20 years old, so it’s very early. This is also the biggest offseason of his young career, where he won’t be preparing for EuroBasket and can specifically train for the NBA.
There is no evidence at all they are looking to trade him. I’m very much going rogue with this prediction. But consider:
1. Internally he has been viewed as possibly the worst pick-and-roll defensive big in the league.
2. They started Bruno Fernando over him to open the season.
3. They rarely run the offense through him (“ŞenHub”).
4. The Rockets are not well-positioned with future draft picks to trade and likely need to move a good young player if they’re looking at any significant deals.
5. They believe bringing in a center is a high priority (though that could be as a backup to Sengun).
To be clear, I’m not predicting Sengun will be dumped but rather we will hear his name floated in rumors. A lot could change — a new coach could see Alpi as key to the future, for example — but right now, given all the factors listed above, I would be surprised if Sengun is the centerpiece of this rebuild. I think he’s more likely the trade piece.
https://twitter.com/RocketsWatch/status/1627944952498950147?s=20
Confidence Level: 60%
fyrebear
June 3, 2013 at 11:49 am
Great writeup! Howard & Harden would be an awesome core to build a championship team around. Makes sense for everyone. I think Howard would flourish in Houston and being paired with an easy going unselfish star player like Harden would be perfect. Once Howard signs his contract I think we will see the end of all of that ‘drama’ and he goes back to being the top post threat in the NBA.
rocketsfun
June 10, 2013 at 2:03 pm
Harden not selfish? Look at the lost games led by Harden in the past season, Harden made a lot of turnovers and missed shots but still didn’t let other players as key person. He always passed the ball to others until the last 2 seconds. That’s very selfish play. He tried all means to get his stats look good. That’s selfish. He didn’t make others better only himself. Howard with harden? I didn’t see any contender teams but the gossip hype for the sports news. I think that’s the purpose of why Morey wants to sign him– to make Rockets more famous in the NBA. Everybody knew Howard is such a childish adult. Needs to be spoiled too much. He will damage the good chemistry.
34 2 11
June 13, 2013 at 6:49 pm
rocketsfun Your English is muddled but your ignorance is crystal clear. James Harden is as unselfish a player you’ll find at his position.
Your words echo the hollow criticisms of a certain “player specific” collective whose sole objective is to prop up their hero at all costs, even to the detriment of the team. I think that is why you and your compatriots are so against the Rockets bringing in A-level talent because you fear it will further diminish the significance of your favorite player.
The addition of Howard to this Rockets team is the best of all possible moves. It puts the Rockets is a position of contention with anticipation and expectation we haven’t seen since the arrival of Tracy McGrady.
surreALEX
June 3, 2013 at 11:51 am
Good write up. Howard and Harden!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.suite678.com
dasgda
June 3, 2013 at 12:22 pm
Uhhhhh you forgot to mention the team he is going to the ATL Hawks. Paul/Horford/Howard>>>>>>>>>>>Harden/Howard and it really isn’t close.
BimaThug
June 3, 2013 at 1:30 pm
dasgda If the salary cap comes in at $58.5 million (as expected), then both Dwight and CP3 would have to sign at a discount to team up in Atlanta, likely a bigger discount than Lebron, Bosh and Wade gave Miami in 2010. Not saying it won’t happen, but the Rockets would be able to pay Dwight more to play with Harden, Parsons, Lin, Asik, Beverley and multiple good young PF prospects than Atlanta could reasonably pay him if the Hawks were also adding CP3.
jahunter221
June 4, 2013 at 7:56 am
Get off the crack
jahunter221
June 4, 2013 at 7:57 am
Get off the dope atlanta
ramnale
June 4, 2013 at 9:10 am
dasgda Well that was stupid. You just added a player whos not even on your team(Paul) just to try to look better than us. You know if you put Horford/Howard against a Harden/Howard, that wouldnt even be close. As for me, I wouldnt mind picking up Garnet or Gasol if the Howard trade doesnt go thru.
kevC
June 3, 2013 at 12:38 pm
Where is the bullet for “finest strip clubs”?
LetItBurnUSA
June 3, 2013 at 12:54 pm
It all comes down to what’s more important to Howard. The glamor of Hollywood and more guaranteed money(for now) or the opportunity to win right away. If it’s the former, he remains a Laker. If it’s the latter, he either becomes a Rocket or maybe an Atlanta Hawk.
da_juice
June 3, 2013 at 7:05 pm
Good read, I also like that there’s been more articles up lately. I’m just trying not to get my hopes up too much.
Mathloom
June 4, 2013 at 3:50 am
Great analysis. I’m convinced that, if Howard doesn’t join, both the Rockets and Howard will be worse off. If he genuinely is basing his decision on the ability to win a championship in a 3 year window (before he can opt out) then we are the best bet. None of the Lakers, Dallas or Atlanta can offer him a shot at the title in all 3 of those seasons. Equally important, Harden is the best player of anyone on all 4 rosters. It’s also a bit far fetched to think that returning to contender status in 2014 is a given for the other teams.
Mathloom
rampak
June 4, 2013 at 3:51 am
Except for playing under mchale and chinese market, other teams can also offer howard the same things.yet, if there is one thing kobe can teach, is that you don’t have to play with a chinese to be big there.Mchale is a hall of fame pf, who refused to play one of his four pf.Your proposed trade for garnet, doesn’t make sense for celtics.Asik’s offense is too raw. The only reason celtics will pursue asik is to pair him with garnet
phil
June 4, 2013 at 2:35 pm
This is nonsense. Dwight has not gotten better in the low post, freethrows, jumpshots, etc. His basketball iq is questionable. His strongest asset is defense and it has been several years since his peak. He relies on his athleticism like stoudemire and has not learned the.skills and has been more and more injury prone. Do you want.a 20 million a year amare stoudemire called superman
JB012
June 5, 2013 at 5:01 pm
@phil 100% this. Howard IS NOT worth it. There’s plenty of other bigs with WAY less risk. Rockets fans who want Howard to Houston are caught up in the hype.
fyrebear
June 6, 2013 at 8:34 am
@JB012 @phil In Dwight Horward’s worst year (playing hurt coming off surgery) he was 3rd team All NBA at C. DH has his warts like any NBA player, but he is leagues better than Amare, especially defensively.
“There’s plenty of other bigs with WAY less risk.”
Please tell us the “available” bigs for which the Rockets can choose from that have the ‘ceiling’ to propel the Rockets to the next level in a way that DH12 has the ability to.
phil
June 7, 2013 at 11:08 pm
Your not understanding my comparison. Amare used to average bigger numbers than dwight until he lost his athleticism(injurys). Amare’s game lacks fundamental skills and that’s why he’s not affective anymore. Dwight also relies on his athleticism and doesn’t have the fundamentals so an injury could make him a non factor as well. If he can’t jump over people he can’t score.
phil
June 7, 2013 at 11:21 pm
I would go after our need, pf. Ideally a derrick favors or maybe d.cousins. If not then split the time with jones & robinson only! This is the youngest team in the league and the 23-24 year olds will only get better with time, don’t believe anyone that thinks we have to rush. We need a legit post player
Ryan
July 5, 2013 at 7:24 pm
fyrebear “Please tell us the “available” bigs for which the Rockets can choose from that have the ‘ceiling’ to propel the Rockets to the next level in a way that DH12 has the ability to.”
Exactly. As Morey said when he traded for Hasheem Thabeet (where is he these days, anyway?), we need a big man, and you can’t trade for proven big men in this league because teams won’t give them up.
Understand, I’m not totally sold on him either – he’s got a bad back and arguably a worse attitude – but there’s no question that the Rockets just got the attention of every team in the league.
phil
June 4, 2013 at 2:54 pm
There’s also the issue of the drama dwight causes because of his unstable mentality. You would not able to start asik.& dwight(scoring, ft’s, jumpshots, etc) or bring asik off the bench(too good). Big men don’t get healthier as they age and the rockets style is not gonna help. He’s got a quitter mentality, magic, lakers
phil
June 7, 2013 at 11:35 pm
I would also demote mchale to assistant and bring in jeff van gundy. He’s the best defensive coach out there with tons of knowledge and experience. I would never ever trade an asik for aging kg, trading a bright star big man for a past his prime about to retire is ludacris!
EricHeard
June 5, 2013 at 6:24 am
Howard + Harden = H-town
Dadakota
June 5, 2013 at 6:34 am
Great article, it would be awesome to cheer for a contender again.DD
jahunter221
June 6, 2013 at 9:48 am
Preach Dakota preach!!!!!””
solid
June 6, 2013 at 9:55 am
Agree with everything except the owner having “multiple championships.” A bit of a reach don’t you think? He bought them, didn’t earn them. And he hasn’t done much with the “twenty years” until recently.
formido
June 7, 2013 at 12:59 pm
I’d say Lin is “pretty good” at pick and roll. 🙂 Morey said in a recent interview that he was the 5th best pick and roll player in the league:
http://houston.cbslocal.com/2013/05/09/gm-daryl-morey-defends-jeremy-lin/
PhiSlammaJamma
June 9, 2013 at 12:13 pm
I don’t see the logic the same way. The Lakers hold all the cards. They have the better team, they have the bigger star, they have a better lifestyle, they have the history, they attract more free agents, and they have the better coach. They don’t have youth, and they don’t have China. But seriously, they own us more we than we own them. So for me, the logic falls to the Lakers. That said, Howard is not logical. He’s emotional. And so I do think there is a chance to brainwash him into coming here. But the logic all lies with the Lakers and I’m just being honest. So if it comes down to that, they will win. They won the last time. They have won this war many times before. They will win it again.
MikeMcMannes
June 10, 2013 at 12:11 pm
Rarely do I find a post that is wrong on nearly EVERY point…but alas, I have found another.
rocketsfun
June 10, 2013 at 2:07 pm
Last year Rockets signed Jeremy lin for Asian markets. this year, Rockets wants to sign Howard for American markets so that NBA or sports world will talk about Huston everyday. Howard and Harden can make contender? Kobe Bryne and Harward, and Nash all together could not make title contender. Rockets needs a best PF to help the team for title contender not the dram queen.