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NBA Draft Lottery: 5 Teams To Watch

Roll out 12 overachieving role players and sprinkle in a little myopia from the front office, and the Houston Rockets are in the exact same spot for the third straight season — holding the bag on the final (14th) seed in the NBA Draft Lottery. As a result, Chandler Parsons, representing the Rockets at tonight’s lottery, should be able to clock out fairly quickly when the results are announced.

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NBA Draft Lottery Houston Rockets
Roll out 12 overachieving role players and sprinkle in a little myopia from the front office, and the Houston Rockets are in the exact same spot for the third straight season — holding the bag on the final (14th) seed in the NBA Draft Lottery. As a result, Chandler Parsons, representing the Rockets at tonight’s lottery, should be able to clock out fairly quickly when the results are announced.

The first pick called is 14th. There is a 98.2% chance it will be the Houston Rockets. If they call out the Phoenix Suns or any other team, then the Rockets are in the top 3 and it’s time to party like it’s 2002.

That’s a ridiculous long shot, but while the Rockets’ night should be quick, there will still be plenty of intrigue remaining as to how the order shakes out, especially when it comes to potential trade partners. From a Rockets perspective, the least damaging result would likely be the three worst teams in the league (Charlotte, Washington, Cleveland) landing the top three picks, but that’s never the case. Given that no team in the league would likely trade the #1 pick (Anthony Davis), we have to root for a handful of teams to not land the top prize… so here are five teams the Rockets should be keeping a close eye on tonight.

Brooklyn Nets
Brooklyn Nets Due to an ill-advised trade for Gerald Wallace, the Nets only keep their lottery pick tonight if they are a lottery winner and get one of the top three picks. The odds of that happening are 25.2% (though conspiracy theorists adjust the odds to around 100% when taking into consideration they’re moving to New York and their owner has more money than most governments).

The Nets and Rockets are two franchises in the same boat — both are in desperate need of a superstar right now. Landing a top 3 pick could seal the deal for Brooklyn if Dwight Howard gets traded or put them in the firm lead for any star player that comes on the market on draft night next month. Outside of their own paltry shot of a leap from 14 to a bronze, silver or gold, there is no more important ping pong ball result for the Rockets than the Nets being shut out of the top 3 tonight.

Sacramento Kings
Sacramento Kings Sacramento was my early favorite as a potential trade partner for the Rockets: They sorely need a point guard and leader, they have made multiple trades with the Rockets in the past and the last thing they need is another immature young player.

However, rookie point guard Isaiah Thomas came on strong in the second half of the season, though at just 5-foot-9, he may not be the long-term starting point they need. I also think it’s just as likely that the Kings could give up on Tyreke Evans before trading away a high lottery pick. Still, I put Sacramento, the 5th worst team, as the highest seeded team that the Rockets have a chance of trading up with.

Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers The Blazers have their own selection (11th) and could score big if the Nets come up short of the top 3, landing a pick that could be as high as 6th. If fortunate enough to secure those two picks, they will likely try to do some trading up of their own, but this is a team that was severely disappointed after rolling out (literally) Ray Felton last year at point guard. Floor general is their top need.

They will likely use their potentially $20M in cap room to chase Deron Williams, Steve Nash or our own Goran Dragic, but if I could throw out this proposal for a moment: Kyle Lowry + the 16th pick for the 6th pick — which team says no to that?

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Utah Jazz
Utah Jazz Rockets fans will root against the Jazz in just about everything, so one would think the last thing Houston needs is for Utah, a young up-and-coming team, to jump up ahead of them in the lottery, but there’s a 27.55% chance of exactly that happening. As if two top 3 picks wasn’t enough compensation in the Deron Williams trade, Utah also has the top 7-protected pick of the Golden State Warriors, who, interestingly enough, are the 7th seeded team tonight.

Utah fans will tell you what their team needs most is a point guard, and they are an organization that historically has had trouble luring free agents, making a trade a more realistic option. Utah coming away with the 8th pick wouldn’t necessarily be good news, but it does create a potential trade partner for the Rockets.

Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors There probably isn’t a more realistic trade partner out there for the Rockets than the Toronto Raptors, seeded 8th in tonight’s lottery. Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun writes that the Raptors are “extremely high on Lowry” and he fully expects the Raptors and Rockets to discuss the possibility of a deal.

The 8th or 9th spot in the draft is probably not what the Rockets have in mind initially when talking about trading up. After all, their top targets of the past two drafts (DeMarcus Cousins and Jonas Valanciunas) ended up going 5th. But if there is a player that the Rockets really want that starts to slide, Toronto makes a lot of sense… and besides, after his self-serving comments last week, what self-respecting Rockets fan doesn’t want to overnight ship Lowry to Canada right about now?

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Armed with a bizarre fascination for Mario Elie and a deep love of the Houston Rockets, Dave Hardisty started ClutchFans in 1996 under the pen name “Clutch”.

Analysis

‘He’s a winner’: In Houston debut, Dorian Finney-Smith makes a clear impact

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Photo via Rockets.com, Houston Rockets

The sample is small, but the results are hard to deny.

In his first three outings with the Rockets, veteran forward Dorian Finney-Smith is already making a significant impact.

After struggling defensively for much of December, Houston (20-10) is back in the NBA’s top five in defensive rating over its past three games.

All three were commanding victories, starting with a road victory on Christmas over the Los Angeles Lakers, and they all came with Finney-Smith as a new addition to the rotation. Though he signed with the Rockets in July, Finney-Smith sat out the first 27 games of the 2025-26 regular season due to offseason ankle surgery.

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In 45 minutes over those three games, the Rockets have a +21.0 net rating differential with Finney-Smith on the floor. By defensive rating, they are 14.3 points better when he plays.

Offensively, the versatile 6-foot-7 forward is making 42.9% of his 3-pointers, and that’s coming off a 2024-25 campaign in which he shot a career-best 41.1% from distance (with the Los Angeles Lakers and Brooklyn Nets).

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“He’s an underrated feel-for-the-game guy,” Pacers head coach Rick Carlise said prior to Houston’s victory over Indiana on Monday night. “He’s a quiet connector for a team. He’s about all the right stuff. He’s a winner.”

Carlisle previously coached Finney-Smith for multiple seasons with the Dallas Mavericks.

“It feels amazing,” Finney-Smith said of his health and how he’s currently feeling. “Just happy to be out there. Once I’m on the court, I don’t feel anything. Winning is the most important thing, and I’m just grateful to be out there.”

Ime Udoka, head coach of the Rockets, pointed to “more versatility” as one of the primary benefits of Finney-Smith’s return.

“He is a seasoned veteran, high IQ, and communicator,” Udoka said (via Brian Barefield, Rockets Wire) “Something we have lacked at times is our communication. I think his awareness of every situation is really high. He has been around and done all those roles.”

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For the time being, Finney-Smith is limited to approximately 15 minutes per game. Prior to his three appearances in recent days, he hadn’t played in an NBA game since last April, so the Rockets will be understandably cautious as they ramp up his activity.

But that minutes limitation is expected to gradually increase over the weeks ahead, and the Rockets are hopeful that Finney-Smith will be a major contributor by the time the 2026 Western Conference playoffs begin in April. Ideally, he can replace much of what the Rockets lost when they sent Dillon Brooks to the Phoenix Suns in the Kevin Durant trade.

“Whether it is off the bench or starting, he gives us a little more depth at the wing, and he can guard up or guard down,” Udoka says of Finney-Smith. The 32-year-old is widely known around the league for his “3-and-D” skill set on the wing, when healthy.

With an improving defense, Houston (20-10) enters calendar-year 2026 with three consecutive victories and a spot at No. 4 in the Western Conference standings. Next up is a New Year’s Day clash at Brooklyn, where Finney-Smith played for portions of the past three seasons.

Thursday’s tipoff is at 5:00 p.m. Central, and the game will be televised regionally on Space City Home Network (SCHN) and nationally via NBA League Pass.

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Analysis

Podcast: As trade season begins, will the Rockets make a splash?

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Photo by Ben DuBose, ClutchFans

In this roundtable conversation, ClutchFans Editor Dave Hardisty joins Ben DuBose and Paulo Alves to preview the NBA’s upcoming transaction window and its potential implications for the 16-7 Houston Rockets.

December 15 is when players who signed contracts in the preceding offseason become trade eligible, so the period from Monday until the in-season deadline of February 5, 2026, is likely to be among the most active on the 2025-26 calendar.

Discussion topics include roster needs and potential trade targets across the board, including the likelihood of bigger-name deals (such as Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, and James Harden) and smaller acquisitions along the lines of Keon Ellis, Chris Paul, and Ayo Dosunmu.

The show also explores Houston’s potential desirability on the buyout market and the team’s long-term timeline for title contention, and specifically why those factors might make this a relatively quiet trade window for the Rockets.

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Editor’s note: Hardisty and DuBose also host regular “ClutchFans Live” postgame recap shows on YouTube, while DuBose and Alves are co-hosts of the Rockets LaunchPod podcast, presented by ClutchFans and with support from SportsTalk 790 — official flagship radio station of the Rockets. Tune in to both shows for more coverage!

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Analysis

NBA front-offices poll: Rafael Stone’s Rockets rise to No. 3

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

At 15-6, the Rockets are currently tied for the second-fewest losses in the Western Conference standings, and they own the NBA’s No. 2 net rating.

And yet, just two years ago, Houston was coming off three straight rebuilding seasons with the worst record in the West.

It’s been a remarkable rise under the guidance of general manager Rafael Stone, who has combined the development of young players such as Alperen Sengun, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr., and Reed Sheppard with the acquisition of impact veterans — namely, Kevin Durant, Steven Adams, and the injured Fred VanVleet.

Making matters even better, the Rockets added and developed all that talent while still retaining several high-end future draft assets, to boot. Houston believes that draft equity can make it a sustainable contender for years to come, both in terms of having desirable trade assets and an ability to replenish its roster depth in cost-efficient ways.

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With the 2025-26 regular season now at approximately its quarter pole, The Athletic recently canvassed 36 executives across the league — presidents, general managers, vice presidents, and assistant GMs — to rank the NBA’s top front offices.

Led by Stone, the Rockets’ front office comes in at No. 3, trailing only the last two champions — the Oklahoma City Thunder and Boston Celtics.

“High-end talent, a willingness to be bold, (and) good asset management,” one executive told The Athletic, when asked to sum up the Rockets.

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Houston finished with one first-place vote; six second- and third-place votes, apiece; five fourth-place votes; and three fifth-place votes.

“They have drafted well, built a deep team in a tough Western Conference while managing tax aprons,” said one executive who voted the Rockets second. “(They) hired a good coach (Ime Udoka) and built an overall team identity, then added KD for cheap. From where they were only a few years ago, they have done a good job turning it around.”

Per Sam Amick of The Athletic, Stone “values this young core greatly and has frequently resisted the temptation to reach for overpriced roster shortcuts.” Udoka has an “influential voice” with the front office, as well, Amick adds.

Amick notes that the Durant trade came at a relatively low asset cost, adding that the Rockets are uninterested in pursuing a trade with the Memphis Grizzlies for disgruntled star Ja Morant.

The Athletic’s complete front-office rankings can be viewed here. This time a year ago, in the same exercise, Houston finished in a tie for the No. 11 spot.

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Analysis

With NBA Cup run complete, Rockets add Clippers, Nuggets to December schedule

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

After their Emirates NBA Cup 2025 elimination, the Rockets (12-4) learned two additional December dates for their 2025-26 regular season.

As announced Saturday by the league office, the Los Angeles Clippers (5-14) will visit Houston on Thursday, Dec. 11. Tipoff at Toyota Center will be at 7:00 p.m. Central.

Meanwhile, the Rockets (12-4) will then head to Denver on Monday, Dec. 15, where tipoff versus the Nuggets (13-5) is at 8:30 p.m. Central.

During Cup games, all three of the Clippers, Nuggets, and Rockets went 2-2 in Western Conference group-stage play. Because only four teams out of the 15 in each conference advance to the knockout rounds, a 2-2 record in group games isn’t usually enough to finish among the top four, and that was again the case this year.

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To ensure that all teams play 82 regular-season games, teams who don’t advance then have two additional December games scheduled versus same-conference opponents who also did not advance.

In most cases, these add-on matchups come down to a formula. Taking Houston as an example, each season’s schedule includes two games (one home, one away) versus all East opponents and four games (two home, two away) versus most West opponents.

However, if that was the case for all same-conference opponents, the schedule would be at 86 games in length. So, there is a select group — rotating each year — of same-conference opponents on the docket only three times.

To trim down to 80 games (to account for the possibility of Cup advancement), the six West teams with only three dates on Houston’s initial 2025-26 schedule were the Clippers, Nuggets, Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Los Angeles Lakers.

Add-on games are typically chosen from that group, and the Thunder and Lakers advanced in Cup play, thus taking them off the table. So, it came down to two teams from the other four.

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Led by James Harden, the reeling Clippers have yet to play Houston this season, though they will meet again on Dec. 23 in Los Angeles.

Meanwhile, the Nikola Jokic-led Nuggets enjoyed a close Nov. 21 victory in Houston. For the Rockets, Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun each struggled in that game.

Now, less than a month later — in a matchup that could prove pivotal in the West standings race — Durant and Sengun (assuming health) will get an opportunity to make amends.

Denver and Houston are currently tied for the No. 3 spot in the West (trailing the Thunder and Lakers), though the Rockets are technically ahead by percentage points due to playing two fewer games. Thus, that Dec. 15 rematch could have significant stakes for both sides.

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Analysis

This Thanksgiving, the Rockets are thankful for Reed Sheppard

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Photo via Houston Rockets, Rockets.com

Relative to their expected formula from the 2025 offseason, the Rockets were missing five rotation players in Wednesday’s Thanksgiving Eve playoff rematch versus the Warriors.

Kevin Durant (personal reasons), Steven Adams (right ankle tendinopathy), and Tari Eason (right oblique strain) were all sidelined, and veterans Fred VanVleet (right knee) and Dorian Finney-Smith (left ankle) remain on the shelf after offseason surgeries.

Yet, the Rockets (12-4) still won for a 12th time in 14 games, and they overcame a 14-point road deficit against a high-profile Golden State squad featuring the likes of Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green.

The biggest reason was second-year guard Reed Sheppard, who set career-highs in points (31) and rebounds (9) while making 12-of-25 shots (48.0%), including four 3-pointers.

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“He was big,” said head coach Ime Udoka, whose Rockets won despite shooting below 40% overall and 30% from 3-point range. “Reed really held us together when guys were struggling.”

For the season, Sheppard — a starter for Udoka over the past two games — is averaging 14.3 points, 3.3 assists, 2.8 rebounds, and 1.6 steals in 24.9 minutes per game. He’s shooting 48.8% overall and 45.5% on 3-pointers, with the latter figure coming in at No. 11 among hundreds of qualified NBA players.

But the advanced metrics are even more impressive. Per Basketball Reference, here’s where Sheppard ranks among his NBA peers in several impact categories:

• Box plus/minus (BPM): No. 5 (7.3)
• Defensive BPM: No. 6 (2.7)
• Offensive BPM: No. 15 (4.6)
• Win shares per 48 minutes: No. 10 (.208)
• Value over replacement player (VORP): No. 16 (0.9)
• True shooting (TS): No. 42 (62.9%)
• Player efficiency rating (PER): No. 40 (19.6)
• Steal percentage: No. 5 (3.3%)

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The only players with a superior BPM are a quartet of annual Most Valuable Player (MVP) frontrunners in Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic. At the moment, Sheppard is the league’s highest-rated American player!

To say the least, those are remarkable efficiency metrics for a 21-year-old in his second NBA season. And it’s not as if Sheppard is posting those in low-leverage minutes, as evidenced by the key plays he made in the fourth quarter to help put the Warriors away.

“Defensively is where he’s shown the most improvement, overall,” Udoka said from San Francisco. “I think he’s taking on the challenge. The blow-bys are getting less and less. He’s catching up with the physicality of the game. Teams are going to try to attack him, at times, but like we said last year and during this summer, make them go east and west and stay in front of them. Help will come. He’s doing a great job of that.”

Sixteen games in, it’s no longer a particularly small sample. Rounding, it’s actually 20% of the 82-game regular season!

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Assuming relative health, the 2025-26 Rockets had a high floor entering the season due to the All-Star presence of Durant and Alperen Sengun. But whether they could achieve a championship ceiling likely depended on further leaps from young players — most notably, the high-upside ones like Sheppard and Amen Thompson.

With Durant out, Thompson was the headliner in Monday’s road victory in Phoenix, and Sheppard stole the show two nights later at Golden State.

For everyone surrounding the organization, it’s an appropriate time to be thankful. With these leaps being shown from players who are extremely young and still improving, the Rockets appear set up to be a force in the Western Conference for quite some time.

“It’s going to be exciting when we get fully healthy and whole,” Udoka surmised.

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