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Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update

With July 1’s arrival, David Weiner takes a look at the Rockets’ salary cap situation as Houston delivers their free agent pitch to Dwight Howard.



Goodbye, June. Hello, July.

It’s been an exciting few months since my last cap update. The Houston Rockets advanced to the NBA playoffs for the first time since 2009, ultimately losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a thrilling six-game series. Almost as importantly, the Rockets have once again grabbed the attention of a national audience, both with their play (led by budding superstar James Harden) and with their much-ballyhooed pursuit of now-unrestricted free agent Dwight Howard.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the team’s current salary cap situation.

The Rockets’ Latest Moves
Since my last update, the Rockets have made the following roster moves:

  • Signed center Tim Ohlbrecht to a three-year non-guaranteed deal.
  • Signed guard Aaron Brooks to a two-year deal, with the second season being non-guaranteed.
  • Waived Tyler Honeycutt, electing not to “stretch” his $100,000 partial guarantee, meaning that Honeycutt will count $100,000 against the Rockets’ team salary in 2013-14.
  • Drafted Murray State guard Isaiah Canaan with the 34th pick of the 2013 NBA Draft.  As a second round pick, Canaan will not count against the Rockets’ team salary until he signs a contract.
  • Reportedly signed Tennessee State forward Robert Covington to a two-year partially guaranteed deal.  The deal is presumably at the rookie minimum ($490,180), with approximately $150,000 of that being guaranteed.
  • Declined their option on the contract of Francisco Garcia (for $6.4 million).
  • Waived Carlos Delfino ($3 million) and Brooks ($2.508 million), neither of whose contracts were guaranteed.
  • By not waiving him, fully guaranteed the whopping $926,500 salary of Chandler Parsons for the 2013-14 season.
  • Agreed in principle to trade Thomas Robinson to the Portland Trailblazers in exchange for two future second round picks and the draft rights to Kostas Papanikolaou (6-8 small forward from Greece, 48th pick of 2012 Draft) and Marko Todorovic (6-11 center from Montenegro, 45th pick of 2013 Draft)
  • Elected not to spend the remaining $2.1 million of their 2012-13 Maximum Annual Cash Limit (which represents the aggregate amount of cash that a team can include in all trades combined over the course of a season).  The Maximum Annual Cash Limit for 2013-14 will be $3.2 million.

Salary Commitments and Available Cap Room

Thomas Robinson

“Thomas, we hardly knew you.”

(All salaries courtesy of

Barring any further roster moves, and assuming a maximum team salary cap of $58.5 million (which is the rough estimate according to the latest league projections but will be clarified by July 10), the Houston Rockets now have just over $40.11 million in team salary committed for the 2013-14 season: Harden ($13.78 million . . . approximately – more on that here), Jeremy Lin ($8.37 million), Omer Asik ($8.37 million), Royce White ($1.72 million), Terrence Jones ($1.55 million), Donatas Motiejunas ($1.42 million), Parsons ($926,250), James Anderson ($916,099), Greg Smith ($884,293), Patrick Beverley ($788,872), Ohlbrecht ($788,872), Covington ($490,180), and Honeycutt (waived – $100,000 partial guarantee).  (Technically, Robinson’s $3.52 million salary is still on the books until the trade with Portland can be consummated on July 10, but he’s off the books for all intents and purposes.)  Add it all up, and the Rockets currently have salary cap room in the maximum amount of approximately $18.39 million.

Of course, that figure includes the non-guaranteed “league minimum-equivalent” contracts of Anderson, Smith, Beverley and Ohlbrecht, all of which can be waived to create additional cap room.  I purposely do not include Covington with the other four players here because, since his contract is partially guaranteed and his total salary is (likely) the same as an incomplete roster charge, it’s actually cheaper to include him in team salary than not to.

If you waive Anderson, Smith, Beverley and Ohlbrecht, and replace them with four (4) incomplete roster charges ($490,180 each, to bring the total number of players/cap holds on the books to a minimum of 12), it would bring the Rockets’ total available cap room up to approximately $19.8 million.

To make up the difference needed to get to “Dwight Max Room” ($20.51 million), the team could potentially waive White using the “stretch” provision, which enables teams to stretch out a waived player’s cap hit over twice the number of years remaining on the player’s contract, plus one (in White’s case, his lone remaining guaranteed year could be stretched out over three seasons).  Waiving White would net the Rockets an additional $656,140 in cap room.

While these moves would bring the Rockets’ total available cap room–according to my figures–to approximately $20.46 million in cap room (around $54,000 or so short of Dwight Max Room), it is entirely possible that my rough estimate of Harden’s salary–my one deviation from the numbers on because no such number exists yet–could be off by more than $54,000, meaning that this avenue quite possibly would create Dwight Max Room.  It’s also entirely possible that Howard won’t let $54,000 determine the course of his NBA career.

Other Cap-Clearing Alternatives
Despite that the above-referenced cap maneuvers might create Dwight Max Room, it is unlikely that the Rockets would want to part so easily with some of its good young players.  For purposes of this piece, let’s assume that the Rockets elect to waive Anderson and Ohlbrecht (each of whom could presumably be re-signed later at the same salary, although either or both of them might get claimed off waivers by another team) but decide not to waive Smith and Beverley (both of whom are tremendous value contracts and neither of whom would ever make it through waivers unclaimed).  Keeping Smith and Beverley on the books would reduce the Rockets’ cap room by $692,805

However, if White could be packaged in a trade with Smith without any salary coming back rather than being waived, the Rockets would get to approximately $20.73 million in cap room.  That’s more than enough to offer Dwight the max and would also allow the Rockets to retain Beverley.

There is also no guarantee that it will be another one or more of the young power forwards dealt.  There have been reports that the Rockets were gauging other teams’ interest in Lin (including one very speculative-sounding rumor of a trade to Detroit for a signed-and-traded Jose Calderon).  If Lin were moved with little to no salary coming back, Houston could comfortably add Howard–and probably another player–without having to trade or waive anyone else on the roster.  (For what it’s worth, I assume that the team does this for all of its players–sans Harden–and would not jump to any conclusions that the Rockets are actively looking to “dump” their starting point guard.)

There are any number of alternative means by which the Rockets can create additional cap room.

Save a Little Something for Isaiah
Howard may not be the only new addition on whom the Rockets would like to use their available cap room.  Given that Canaan likely graded out as a first round talent on the Rockets’ draft board (pure speculation on my part), it is also likely that the team would want to sign Canaan to a three- or four-year deal, similar to the contracts previously handed out to second rounders like Chase Budinger and Parsons.

In order to sign Canaan to a contract of more than two years in length or starting at higher than the rookie minimum salary ($490,180), the Rockets would need to leave a sliver of cap space open.  For instance, in 2011, the Rockets set aside $850,000 in cap room to use on Parsons while negotiating a free agent contract with Samuel Dalembert.

Of course, if the Rockets are forced to choose between using an extra few hundred thousand dollars or so on Howard or Canaan, I’m pretty confident that Canaan would find himself playing for the rookie minimum faster than you can say “Carl Landry.”

So . . . Is That It?

Daryl Morey

After the draft, Daryl Morey was confident he could create the cap room, and he was right

Using most/all of their cap room on one free agent signing (Howard) has raised many questions from fans wanting to know how the Rockets will be able to add other quality veteran free agents for next season.  While the utilization of cap room means that the Rockets would not be able to utilize many of their salary cap exceptions, there are still other avenues to add quality players.

One new salary cap exception introduced in the 2011 CBA is a type of Mid-Level Exception commonly referred to as the “Room” Exception.  The Room Exception allows a team that has opted to use its salary cap room to exceed the salary cap by a set amount in order to add one or more players on a one- or two-year contract.  It cannot be combined with cap room to offer a free agent more money.  For the 2013-14 season, the amount of the Room Exception is $2.652 million.  It is quite possible that the Rockets will try to use the Room Exception to bring back either Garcia or Delfino or to add another quality veteran willing to take a pay cut in order to play on a championship contender.

Another avenue for adding players could be the Minimum Player Salary Exception, which allows a team to exceed the salary cap to add players for the veteran’s minimum.  Such contracts can be up to two years in length.  If a veteran of three or more NBA seasons is signed, his cap hit is only the two-year veteran’s minimum salary (for 2013-14, $884,293); and if such a player signs a one-year minimum deal, the portion of his salary over and above the two-year veteran’s minimum actually gets picked up by the league!  To the extent that the Rockets need to waive several players to create enough cap room to sign Howard, it is possible that Houston adds at least one decent veteran on a minimum salary contract.

With a potential foundation of both Harden and Howard, the Rockets would certainly present an attractive opportunity to NBA veterans looking for a rotation spot on a winner.

Over the course of the past year, the Houston Rockets have quickly gone from “perennial bridesmaid” to “prime catch” in the eyes of many star players.  With an awesome (and I mean that literally) contingent–including Rockets owner Leslie Alexander, GM Daryl Morey, Executive VP Gersson Rosas, CEO Tad Brown, Harden, Parsons and Rockets legends Hakeem Olajuwon and Clyde Drexler–meeting with Howard, it is quite clear that the Rockets have become major players in how the NBA landscape will shift this summer and beyond.  With a core of high quality young players, along with plenty of cap room, Houston now presents one of the league’s best opportunities for a star player to become part of a championship contender for the next several years.

Houston Rockets

Podcast: Steven Adams, Mikal Bridges and Trade Possibilities for the Rockets




Houston Rockets Trade Deadline 2024

The Houston Rockets already made one deal, acquiring center Steven Adams from Memphis for a handful of second-round picks, but we still have several days left before this Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline.

Are more deals on the way?

Rumors of interest in Mikal Bridges have swirled, with the Rockets holding precious (and unprotected) first-round picks from Brooklyn. They also could use some help inside this season, which Adams can not provide. Shooting is always in demand.

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Adams trade, its impact on the Rockets in 2024-25 and beyond, the Mikal Bridges rumors, the Brooklyn picks, other trade possibilities and options for Rafael Stone moving forward. Also discussed is the play of Houston’s core 6 prospects: Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Jalen Green.


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Houston Rockets

Rockets trade for center Steven Adams




Steven Adams Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a surprise trade on Thursday, sending the contract of Victor Oladipo and three second-round picks to Memphis for center Steven Adams.

The deal came together quickly and the Rockets had a small window to get it done, hence why this trade was made with a week to go until the trade deadline.

The Price

When you consider that Memphis did this for cost savings primarily and that Adams would not play for any team in the league this season, the price seemed a little high to me. The Rockets gave up the OKC second-round pick this year, which is no big loss, but they also give up the better of Brooklyn’s or Golden State’s second-round pick this season. That’s a pretty good pick (likely in the late 30’s). They also give up the better of Houston’s or OKC’s second-round pick in 2025. If things go as planned for the Rockets, that pick should be in the 45-55 range.

But they didn’t sacrifice a first-round pick, which would have been brutal, and they were not going to use all those seconds this season. So it’s just a matter of opportunity cost — who else could they have gotten for this package?

My understanding is they (particularly Ime Udoka) are very high on Adams.

The Rockets also did this move for cap purposes as well. By moving out the Oladipo contract, which was expiring, and bringing in Adams’ deal, which is signed for $12.4M next season, the window for the Rockets to put together a trade package for a star player is extended out until the 2025 trade deadline. They continue to wait to see which players, if any, shake loose here and become available. They want flexible (see: expiring) contracts that they can combine with assets and this gives them another year to be in that position.

The Trade

It’s not often that the Rockets acquire a player I had not considered beforehand but that’s the case with Steven Adams. The Rockets sorely need a big with size that provides more traditional center strengths, making Clint Capela, Robert Williams, Nick Richards or Daniel Gafford potential candidates, but Adams was overlooked for a few reasons.

First, the 30-year old big man is out for the season after knee surgery cost him the entire 2023-24 campaign, so the Rockets won’t get any benefit from this trade this season. Secondly, Adams is not your traditional center either when it comes to rim protection.

But what Adams does do, he’s really good at and he has some of the same strengths of Brook Lopez, who the Rockets tried to sign in the offseason. Adams is quite possibly the strongest guy in the league and a legitimate 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He’s an outstanding screen-setter, something that could really benefit the likes of Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson and Jalen Green. He was also an elite rebounder last season, finishing 6th in the league in caroms at 11.5 a game despite playing just 27.0 minutes a contest.

After watching Jonas Valanciunas absolutely bully the Rockets inside on Wednesday, it should be apparent by now to everyone that this was a pretty big need.

In 2021-22, the Memphis Grizzlies finished #2 in the West at 56-26. Their top two players in Net Rating that season were Dillon Brooks (+11.0) and Adams (+8.3), key cogs in a defense that held opponents to 108.6 points per 100 possessions. They’re both now Houston Rockets.

So this adds another trusted vet to Ime Udoka’s rotation.

The question is will the 30-year old Adams return to form after the knee injury? Adams sprained the posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee a year ago, which cost him the end of that season and the playoffs. He tried rehabbing it and it never got better, so surgery became the option just as this season was kicking off.

I like to think the Rockets did their due diligence on that, despite the short time it took for this deal to come together, but that’s unclear.

If he does bounce back, then Udoka has a big man he can turn to reliably in situational matchups or on nights when the younger bigs struggle. He wouldn’t be Boban or even Jock Landale in that scenario — he’s going to play, so the frontcourt depth in 2024-25 should be better. In the end, they got a starting-caliber center who will have no problems coming off the bench, and that’s what they were looking for.

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Houston Rockets

On the KPJ trade and future of the Rockets




The Houston Rockets are back to being a professional NBA team once again.

The Rockets finally ended the Kevin Porter Jr. era on Tuesday, coughing up two second-round picks in order to unload his contract to the Oklahoma City Thunder, getting back the contract of Victor Oladipo and third-year forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. The move puts an end to a long investment and very rocky tenure with KPJ.

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Porter Jr. Experiment, the price paid to move him, Houston’s potential trade options moving forward, the new culture and the current state of the Rockets young core.

ClutchFans Podcast: On Apple | Spotify

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Houston Rockets

Heavy investment in Kevin Porter Jr raises serious questions about Rockets front office




Kevin Porter Jr. Rafael Stone

Soon-to-be-ex Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr was arrested last week for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend, resulting in a fractured neck vertebra and a deep gash above her right eye after an attack at a hotel in New York. He allegedly woke her up by punching her repeatedly, strangled her and did not stop hitting her until she ran out of the hotel room screaming for help and covered in blood.

“This is a serious domestic violence case,” said assistant Manhattan district attorney Mirah Curzer.

First and foremost, I wish the victim healing. I don’t know what to say about the nightmare she went through. She and her family will forever be impacted. As for KPJ, if this is true, he doesn’t belong on the Rockets or in the NBA at all. He belongs in jail.

Secondly, this can’t be overlooked and just swept under the rug: Why did the Houston Rockets bank on and invest so heavily in this guy?

Kevin Porter Jr. being accused of crimes of this severity should not be shocking – at all. Before he even came to the Rockets, he had a long list of serious problems. He was suspended multiple times in high school. In 2019, he had a “conduct issue” significant enough that USC suspended the 5-star recruit indefinitely. He fell to the end of the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft because of his behavior liability. He was accused of punching a woman in the face in Cleveland. He also had a gun and marijuana charge later dismissed after getting into a car crash. He went into a tirade and got into a nasty confrontation with both the Cleveland coach and GM, resulting in the Cavs severing ties immediately and dumping him to the Rockets for nothing.

You could make the argument that initially giving Porter Jr. a second chance in Houston was praiseworthy, but the Rockets experienced KPJ’s anger management and immaturity issues firsthand on several occasions.

Former Rocket Austin Rivers said this week that this isn’t the first, second or even seventh issue with Porter Jr. and that Rockets “higher-ups” confided in him that they had no idea how to handle him.

“I remember talking to guys in the Houston Rockets organization, higher-ups, [and] they were having issues then,” said Rivers. “They were like, ‘We don’t know what to do with him.’ And that’s when he just got there from Cleveland!”

Porter Jr. was routinely a nightmare for Rockets coaches to deal with. On several occasions, he confronted and cussed out members of the coaching staff, saying they didn’t have the “credentials”, per source, a reference to the fact that him playing heavy minutes at point guard was a decision they did not control.

Once at a night out, Porter Jr. had a disagreement with a DJ over music choice and he snapped, smashing the DJ’s laptop to the floor. He needed to be restrained and removed. Rockets personnel and several of Porter’s teammates witnessed the incident.

Curzer also dropped a bombshell at the arraignment in saying that Porter Jr. has a history of abusing his girlfriend, who he had only been dating since early last year, his second season with the Rockets. Curzer specifically cited an incident in which KPJ allegedly rammed his car into hers.

There were dozens of maturity issues visible on the court to anyone paying attention. He refused to check out of games. He got into an argument on the bench with assistant Lionel Hollins. On numerous occasions, he would visibly shut down when he wasn’t passed the ball. I invite you to watch this video from a game against Memphis on March 20, 2022. Just listen to the Grizzlies broadcasters, particularly starting at the 1:40 mark, talk about what they are witnessing here:

Privately, people around the league would say they were baffled by the Rockets continued fascination with Porter Jr. Nobody could understand it.

That fascination starts with Rockets general manager Rafael Stone, who by every account over the last two years was the driving force behind the investment in Porter Jr. It has been no secret. Trading for him in January 2021 was seen by some with the team as his “Harden acquisition”, code for a signature move that makes an executive’s career, much in the way landing James Harden did for Daryl Morey in 2012.

For example, former Rockets head coach Stephen Silas never considered Porter Jr. to be a point guard, per sources — playing him there was a Stone mandate because the GM believed that is where his future lied.

John Wall also told us as much publicly when he explained the phone call he got from Silas about coming off the bench. He said Silas told him “This is what the GM wants,” adding again that Silas said, “Man, you don’t deserve that. You should be the starter. This is just what they want to do.” Wall was upset because he believed KPJ should have to earn the spot.

“I have a hard time finding anybody outside of the Rockets front office that believes that Kevin Porter Jr. is a starting point guard in the NBA,” said ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon in December.

There were plenty of warning signs about KPJ to the public too.

After Porter Jr. got into a heated argument in which KPJ “physically shoved” Rockets assistant coach John Lucas and quit on the team in the middle of a game against Denver in January of 2022, leaving the arena at halftime, Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix famously wrote that the Rockets should “Cut Porter Jr. Waive him. Release him. Whatever. Eat what’s left of the $1.8 million he’s owed this season and the $3.2 million he’s got next and move on.” It became a source of mockery for Porter Jr’s fans, a line they would bring up after each game he hit a few threes or handed out some assists.

In February of this year, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, one of the most connected reporters in the league, flat out warned us that he was hearing awful things about the Rockets culture and locker room. He was blunt in what the Rockets needed to do — waive Kevin Porter Jr. outright and bring in a new coach and GM.

“Just cut him. That’s it,” said Givony of Porter Jr. “And you’re sending a signal to the league that we’re going to do things differently from here on out.”

“When you talk to people around the NBA about Houston, you just don’t hear good things about their culture, about that locker room. You talk to people that are on that team, and they are like, ‘We are a mess’,” said Givony. “Do people want to work with this organization? But you can change that fairly quickly if you come in, get rid of the bad apples and you change the coaching staff, and all of a sudden, you’re Houston. It’s the third-biggest city in America. There’s a history here of you actually being good.”

Porter came to the Rockets for “free” (in exchange for a top-55 protected second-round pick, which was designed not to convey), but he proved far from it as the Rockets continued to pour investment into him. Over the last 2-3 seasons, no Rockets player got more developmental capital than Porter Jr. – not Jalen Green, not Alperen Sengun, not Jabari Smith Jr. The Fertittas paid John Wall $85+ million over two years to sit at home so the team could groom Porter Jr. to be their future point guard.

Then they doubled down. With restricted free agency on the horizon and a seemingly non-existent market for KPJ’s services, the Rockets gave Porter Jr. an extension a year sooner – a contract that was presented as a four-year, $82.5 million deal. The deal was more team-friendly than that, putting team options in it after years 1 and 3. Going from the potential disaster that was initially reported to a deal they could escape after one season felt like a “win”, but the biggest question was why they wanted him long-term at all. The unprecedented nature of a contract that size with that kind of club control clearly showed the Rockets knew there was unique and significant risk here.

After KPJ signed the extension, The Athletic’s Kelly Iko summarized the Rockets view of Porter Jr. – “As has been [their] stance for months, the Rockets have maintained the notion that Porter is a priority and is considered a huge part of their core, along with Green and Jabari Smith Jr.”

The Rockets actions to kick off the 2022-23 season showed exactly that – that he was a priority. They benched Sengun to start the season, in large part to give KPJ a “lob threat” and defender in the starting lineup. They gave him the superstar “Harden Locker”. They introduced him last in the starting lineups. They treated him as the star and empowered him to be the self-proclaimed “Head Honcho” of Clutch City.

But the extension proved unwise and foolish. Porter Jr. never even made it to the first year of it. With over $80 million on the line, he snapped again. The Rockets signed him to one of the team-friendliest deals ever and still managed to both overcommit and overpay as Stone now scrambles to attach real assets to it to get another team to take it off his books.

Is it fair to question the judgment of the Rockets front office? Absolutely and without question. Whether you look at their ability to value character, evaluate risk, scout basketball, build culture, manage assets or allocate development resources, they failed at every level here. Why didn’t they act sooner? Why did they double down? Why didn’t they hold him accountable? Why did everybody in the league see it but them?

“We value the player and the person that [Kevin Porter Jr.] is becoming and are eager to invest in him and his journey,” said Stone after rewarding him with the extension less than a year ago.

The question you have to ask yourself now is, with all they knew and witnessed about Porter Jr. both on and off the court — why were they eager at all?

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Houston Rockets

Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason

The 2023 offseason is critical for the Houston Rockets and here’s what we think will happen




Houston Rockets Stephen Silas Alperen Sengun Kevin Porter Jr

We have almost arrived to the oasis.

For over two years, the “2023 Offseason” has been circled on the calendar as the turning point, the time when the Houston Rockets will switch gears and make winning a priority. With potentially $60 million in cap room and a top draft pick coming, this is the moment of truth that Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office pitched to the Fertittas when the rebuild began.

Does that mean the Rockets are going to magically start winning next season? Not necessarily. But it does mean we won’t see Daishen Nix run the point for 36 minutes in the name of player development. They want to win.

It’s very tough to know what will happen this offseason, given the unknown variables. The Rockets could land a top-two pick, which would bring them Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, radically boosting their future. James Harden could opt to return, which also significantly boosts their near-term prospects.

But regardless of whether or not luck presents a “lifeboat” (Harden, Wemby, Scoot), here are some things I believe will happen.

Also, if you have been joining us in RocketsWatch all season, first of all, thank you! We greatly appreciate all the fan support this season. But if you’ve stuck around through a tough season, you know that none of this will come as a surprise. I have been talking about these predictions since January.

1. Rockets, Stephen Silas Will Part Ways

Stephen Silas is going to be let go this offseason.

The original plan was for Silas to coach this season and start the next, getting a shot once the Rockets were making winning their top priority. But the bar was low this season and he still fell short. There were several times where the team needed a stronger hand and it wasn’t there. The roster wasn’t built to win, but there is no argument to be made that coaching did anything to enhance the situation.

It’s important to point out that Silas got a raw deal, coming to Houston under different circumstances expecting to coach a veteran team. But this is the hand that was dealt and the Rockets have to play it. Silas may be a fine coach, but he’s not the right coach for this team and that’s all that matters at this stage.

Ownership was ready to move on by midseason, but a variety of factors have led to him finishing the year. But this is going to be it. They sorely need fresh eyes and a different voice.

Confidence Level: 100%

2. The Kevin Porter Jr. Starting Point Guard Experiment Will End

The Rockets got Kevin Porter Jr. for free from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021, but he’s been anything but since.

Houston paid nearly $100 million to John Wall to stay at home so they could groom KPJ as their future point guard. They also signed Porter Jr to a team-friendly four-year deal despite the fact that a much more team-friendly restricted free agency was on deck.

Porter Jr. has gotten better and more comfortable at the lead guard spot in two-plus seasons, which could bode well for his future here, but it’s not near enough. He lacks ability to make advanced reads, which is one of the reasons the Rockets are dead last in corner three-point attempts. His tendency is to isolate, which is his strength, and that can create a lot of selfish basketball. In essence, the Rockets have been starting a pair of shooting guards.

The Rockets love them some KPJ, particularly Stone, so I’m not saying he’s done here. He could thrive in an alternate role, if he embraces it. But the Rockets want to make a leap next season, the first year they are on the hook to Oklahoma City for their first-round pick from the costly Russell Westbrook trade. You’re probably not going to make a bigger jump than by improving the on-court leader spot.

Confidence Level: 80%

3. Alperen Şengün Will Be Shopped

You either believe Alperen Sengun is the next Nikola Jokic or he’s a defensive liability that is too much trouble to build around. There doesn’t seem to be much in between.

Sengun is incredibly gifted offensively and is only 20 years old, so it’s very early. This is also the biggest offseason of his young career, where he won’t be preparing for EuroBasket and can specifically train for the NBA.

There is no evidence at all they are looking to trade him. I’m very much going rogue with this prediction. But consider:

   1. Internally he has been viewed as possibly the worst pick-and-roll defensive big in the league.
   2. They started Bruno Fernando over him to open the season.
   3. They rarely run the offense through him (“ŞenHub”).
   4. The Rockets are not well-positioned with future draft picks to trade and likely need to move a good young player if they’re looking at any significant deals.
   5. They believe bringing in a center is a high priority (though that could be as a backup to Sengun).

To be clear, I’m not predicting Sengun will be dumped but rather we will hear his name floated in rumors. A lot could change — a new coach could see Alpi as key to the future, for example — but right now, given all the factors listed above, I would be surprised if Sengun is the centerpiece of this rebuild. I think he’s more likely the trade piece.

Confidence Level: 60%

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