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Houston Rockets Salary Cap Update: The New CBA

Well, after nearly five months of acrimony and bickering (not counting all the time prior to July 1, when the NBA owners locked out the players), it looks like the National Basketball Association is about to re-open for business. 

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Well, after nearly five months of acrimony and bickering (not counting all the time prior to July 1, when the NBA owners locked out the players), it looks like the National Basketball Association is about to re-open for business. 

As team executives and coaches start officially communicating with players for the first time since June, they will be doing so under substantially different salary cap rules. 

Since I have neither the time nor the inclination to detail all of the intricacies of the new collective bargaining agreement (CBA) and how it compares against the prior CBA, I will let salary cap guru Larry Coon do the explaining for me.  If you have not yet read Larry Coon’s breakdown of the CBA changes, it really is a must-read. Also, it may be helpful to read that piece in order to fully understand some of the changes below in players’ cap figures, qualifying offers and contract sizes that can be offered to free agents.

Let’s begin. 

Salary Commitments and Potential Cap Room
The Houston Rockets will have a minimum of approximately $46.81 million in salary commitments to eleven players for the 2011-12 season: Kevin Martin ($11.52 million), Luis Scola ($8.59 million), Kyle Lowry ($5.75 million), Hasheem Thabeet ($5.13 million), Jonny Flynn ($3.41 million), Jordan Hill ($2.86 million), Terrence Williams ($2.37 million), Courtney Lee ($2.23 million), Goran Dragic ($2.11 million), Patrick Patterson ($1.96 million) and Chase Budinger ($884,293). 

Add to that amount the rookie scale cap holds of the recently-drafted Marcus Morris ($1.52 million) and Donatas Motiejunas ($1.13 million) (the new CBA has temporarily frozen first round rookie scale salaries at 2010-11 levels for similarly drafted players; second round picks like Chandler Parsons still do not count against the cap until signed); and each of Marcus Cousin and Marqus Blakely is set to earn $762,195 (under the new CBA, all league minimum salaries have been temporarily frozen at 2010-11 levels) if they manage to remain on the roster into next season. Chuck Hayes, the Rockets’ lone remaining (non-retired) free agent, will have a cap hold of about $3.75 million (the new CBA has reduced certain cap holds, resulting in a slight reduction in the Chuckwagon’s). 

Based on this season’s salary cap figure ($58.044 million, at which the salary cap will be artificially set for this year and next before resetting based on the new BRI split), in order for the Rockets to maintain rights to all of its players, they will have approximately $3.31 million in salary cap room. 

However, given that the compressed free agent signing period is expected to commence simultaneously with the opening of training camps, there will probably be some minor adjustments to this figure.  While Motiejunas will continue to play in Poland this season, the Rockets will likely need to sign Morris and Parsons quickly in order to get them into training camp.  Morris will command the typical 120% of his rookie scale salary (or $1.82 million, the same salary that Patterson got last season).  Parsons is allegedly forcing his way into training camp by refusing to play overseas, meaning that the Rockets will need to either invite him to training camp (and offer him a contract) or release him outright; hence, Parsons will likely get either a minimum deal (for $473,604) or perhaps even a Budinger-like deal using a sliver of the Mid-Level Exception (for purposes of this piece, let’s assume he just gets the league minimum).  Accounting for these timing issues, the Rockets’ cap room may be reduced to approximately $2.53 million

Daryl Morey and the Rockets currently face a tough decision regarding whether or not to re-sign Hayes.  After a career year for the Chuckwagon (one in which the rest of the league finally took notice of Hayes’s ability to impact games on both ends of the floor), Hayes’s agent has already received several contract offers from other teams, including one from the Sacramento Kings (who play near Chuck’s hometown of Modesto).  On the Rockets’ end, Morey must balance the value he places on Hayes (it is no secret that the Rockets value Chuck more than just about any other team would) against the Rockets’ desire for maximum salary cap flexibility going forward.  A reasonable long-term deal for Hayes can still be worked out (it appears that Chuck is not interested in a one-year deal, even if the Rockets offer to make it a lucrative one); but the odds are against Morey re-signing him if his contract demands exceed a certain (relatively low) threshold. 

Assuming that (1) none of the recently drafted rookies are waived (a likely bet), (2) Cousin and Blakely are waived (both contracts are fully non-guaranteed, except that Blakely’s deal becomes partially guaranteed for $25,000 if he’s on the roster at the start of the regular season), (3) Hayes’s rights are renounced (or Chuck signs with another team), and (4) no other trades or roster moves are made, then the Rockets’ cap room with the current roster (not playing overseas) all under contract would increase to approximately $7.8 million, subject to an additional increase should Morey elect to use the new “amnesty” provision on a current Rockets player. 

2011 Free Agency . . . or “To Amnesty or Not to Amnesty”
With the aforementioned $7.8 million cap room figure, Morey would be able to keep the roster intact while offering a free agent a contract as large as a four-year, $33.34 million deal.  However, that won’t be enough to nab one of the top free agents like Nene or Tyson Chandler

Nene

Nene would be a great addition to the Rockets, but at what price?

 However, if a top free agent were truly willing to sign with the Rockets if the team could meet his demands, the Rockets could use the amnesty provision to waive Thabeet–allowing the team to wipe his salary off the books for cap and luxury tax purposes–and greatly increase their available cap room.  (Of course, Les Alexander would still need to pay Thabeet every penny of the $5.13 million he is owed this season.) 

If timed correctly, the Rockets could conceivably use the amnesty provision to waive Thabeet and, if combined with a delay in signing their rookies, could open up as much as $13.71 million in cap room and be able to offer a deal as large as four years, $58.54 million.  These numbers could possibly increase even more with some minor trades to open up additional cap room. 

While Morey appears to be capable of opening up enough cap room to at least legitimately contend for any top 2011 free agent, the odds are against him actually doing so.  As Morey himself stated recently, he was unwilling to make a move that may help in the short term if it would ultimately hinder the franchise over the long term.  Signing a very good–but not great–player to a near-max contract could potentially prevent the Rockets from being able to earnestly pursue a superstar in free agency or in trade. 

I suppose that the Rockets could sign a major free agent to a sizable but moderately reasonable contract, either to keep for the long haul or to use in a later trade.  Teams like Orlando (Dwight Howard) and New Orleans (Chris Paul) may be interested in a player like Nene if the Rockets were to include him in a package for such teams’ superstars. 

When it’s all said and done, the likely result of the 2011 free agent frenzy will be that the Rockets make no significant additions via free agency.  More likely, Morey will opt to preserve the team’s salary cap flexibility for 2012.  In fact, I imagine that the Rockets will opt not to have any “cap room” at all. 

By opting not to use cap room, the Rockets will instead preserve the use of (a) their Bird rights on Hayes (and on retired players like Yao Ming, Dikembe Mutombo and Warriors coach Mark Jackson), (b) the $5 million Mid-Level Exception, (c) the $1.9 million Biannual Exception and (d) existing trade exceptions (most notably, the $7.35 million trade exception generated in the Battier-Thabeet trade last February). 

Given that the above rights and cap exceptions should give the Rockets more flexibility, my sense is that–unless Nene or Chandler are willing to come to Houston on a fairly reasonable contract–Morey will set his free agent sights towards 2012. 

Amnesty Bargain Bin?: Risks & Rewards
Another potential avenue available to the Rockets for a roster upgrade may be through the “amnesty waiver wire.”  Larry Coon has the details regarding the amnesty clause of the new CBA in his article referenced above.  It is the waiver process resulting from casualties of the amnesty clause’s implementation that I will focus on here.

Once a player has been waived using the amnesty clause, he becomes subject to a modified waiver process.  This process is only open to teams with available cap room (as opposed to over-the-cap teams with salary cap exceptions still available for use), avoiding the loophole of having good players–whose salaries are already being paid by other teams–signing for little money with over-the-cap contenders.

A team claiming any such player must still claim his entire contract; but rather than requiring that team to pick up the waived player’s entire salary, the claiming team may instead make a bid offering to pick up only a certain amount of the player’s salary.  The under-the-cap team with the highest bid will be able to claim the waived player, and only the waiver bid claim amount of that player’s salary will count against the claiming team’s payroll and for salary cap and luxury tax purposes.  The waiving team will then be partially relieved of the obligation to pay the waived player’s salary to the extent of the waiver bid amount.

As mentioned above, the Rockets may have a hard decision to make about whether to opt for use of their cap room or to maintain their salary cap and trade exceptions, especially if Hayes signs with another team.  Assuming that the team did not opt to create cap room to sign any outside free agents for this season, if there is a player available on the amnesty waiver wire who can significantly help the Rockets, Morey might be willing to opt for cap room and make a waiver bid on that player.

But therein lies the risk.  The details of the new CBA have not yet been reached on what happens to a team that makes certain moves to get under the salary cap (i.e., renouncing rights to free agents, waiving salary cap and trade exceptions, and possibly even amnesty waiving a player of its own) in order to place an amnesty waiver bid on a player but then gets outbid for that player by another under-the-cap team.  Would the Rockets be left without all of the above, with no process by which to reclaim those players’ rights and cap exceptions?  This will color any decision that Morey makes to pursue such waived players.  And given Morey’s unwillingness to overpay, it is likely that another team will (perhaps foolishly?) outbid the Rockets on the amnesty waiver wire.

However, if it is any consolation, there are expected to be far fewer players actually waived this season via the amnesty clause than originally expected, with several teams either preferring to keep the amnesty in their pockets for a later date or (like the Washington Wizards with Rashard Lewis) needing to keep some high-salaried players on their books in order to meet the increased team minimum salary.

Trade As Most Likely Avenue for Improvement
Regardless, the most likely avenue by which Morey will look to improve the Rockets’ roster will be via trade.  Rest assured that the Rockets will be among the many suitors for Howard, Paul and New Jersey Nets guard Deron Williams.  While the Nets have no interest in trading Williams (for whom they recently gave up a veritable treasure trove of assets), there is increasing speculation that, due to some of the quirky new CBA rules, Orlando and New Orleans may actually entertain trades for their respective superstars as early as the next two weeks. 

Dwight Howard

Dwight Howard, a potential free agent in 2012, could be one of the prizes of the 2011-12 trade season

Morey will be armed with the following (non-exhaustive list of) assets at his disposal: 

–A shooting guard who finished in the top 10 in the league in scoring last season (Martin); 

–A 25-year-old point guard who is great defensively, draws fouls and has continued to show marked improvement year to year (Lowry); 

–A rock-solid veteran power forward who is an “NBA-young” 31 years old (Scola); 

–Promising and highly regarded young talent (Lee, Dragic, Budinger, Patterson, Morris); 

–Some “diamonds-in-the-rough” who can be obtained as throw-ins (Thabeet, Flynn, Hill, Williams, Parsons); 

–New York’s 2012 first round pick (only top-5 protected), which is attractive despite the Knicks’ star duo because of the rare limited protection on the pick; 

–Minnesota’s 2012 second round pick (which may be a high second round pick that proves more valuable than many late first rounders); 

–Some nice young talent playing overseas (Motiejunas, Sergio Llull, Lior Eliyahu); and 

–Some trade exceptions capable of absorbing extra “dead weight” salary from the other team (the Battier TPE being key here). 

The Rockets’ pursuit of major trades should be helped by the new CBA’s relaxation of salary-matching rules for non-taxpaying teams (even though the Rockets paid a small amount of luxury tax last season, I don’t believe that will prevent them from benefiting under the new trade rules this season).  Under the new CBA, teams with total salaries below the “luxury tax apron” threshold (approximately $74 million) can take back the lesser of (a) 150% of outgoing salary plus $100,000 or (b) 100% of outgoing salary plus $5 million.  (Tax-paying teams are restricted to the prior limitations of 125% of outgoing salary plus $100,000.)  Look for Houston to take full advantage off these new relaxed salary-matching restrictions, as payroll relief for the other team will be a key factor in the Rockets’ ability to acquire a star player via trade. 

One trade asset that the Rockets will have less of this trade season is cash.  Contrary to popular belief, Les Alexander has been among the NBA owners most willing to throw in cash in order to get a deal done.  However, under the new CBA, teams may not include or receive more than $3 million in cash in trades in the aggregate during any season (the prior rule allowed teams to include up to $3 million in cash in each trade).  Should an opportunity to acquire a supestar like Howard via trade present itself, the Rockets would be unable to break a larger deal into separate trades in order to pay more than $3 million in cash.  Furthermore, assuming that the Rockets include most or all of their allotted $3 million in cash in one or more trades during or immediately after the 2011-12 season, Houston’s usual strategy of seeking out draft picks to purchase outright will be greatly hampered. 

While Houston may not have quite the same caliber of assets that the Los Angeles Clippers sport (most notably, Eric Gordon and Minnesota’s unprotected 2012 first round pick), the Clips can only put ONE deal together that would clearly beat out anything the Rockets could offer.  The Rockets should be able to compete with just about any other team in the race for a superstar via trade, due to the sheer quantity of attractive trade chips they possess.  (Something that the media has failed to clarify about the Nets’ purported trade offer of Brook Lopez and two first round picks for Howard is that all of the Nets’ GOOD draft picks were already traded to Utah.  The Nets only have the Rockets’ lottery-protected pick and the Nets’ own picks, none of which should be any good if the Nets successfully pair Williams with Howard.) 

2012 Cap Situation
Given the many unknown variables that could change quickly once the league opens for business on December 9, it makes little sense even to speculate on where the Rockets might stand come July 1, 2012.  That said, early indications are that Houston could have upwards of $22 million in cap room while still retaining Martin, Scola, Lowry, Patterson, Morris, Budinger and Motiejunas.  (Of course, this figure would need to be reduced to account for Houston’s 2012 first round picks and any other players returning from this season’s roster.) 

Moreover, if the opportunity presented itself to be able to add Howard AND either Paul or Williams next summer, there should be some opportunities to trade–or, if all else fails, to amnesty cut–a high-salaried player in order to add two superstars.  That’s not a slam dunk by any stretch.  Just a remote possibility. 

Courtney Lee and The New Age of Restricted Free Agency
One key variable to 2012 cap room will be how the Rockets choose to handle Courtney Lee, who may be the current Rockets player most affected by the new CBA in the next year due to the player-friendly changes to restricted free agency. 

If Lee is still on the roster by the end of next season, look for the Rockets to try hard to retain him.  They’ll likely have plenty of competition for Lee’s services, however, as many teams hold Lee in high regard as a potential starting shooting guard. 

Lee (much like Hayes this year) will have a lower cap hold next summer under the new CBA, with his cap figure being reduced from $6.6 million (under the old CBA) down to $5.5 million. 

Courtney Lee Houston Rockets

Courtney Lee may be the first Rocket affected by the changes in restricted free agency under the new CBA

 If Lee’s market value increases high enough, the Rockets may be forced to choose between him and Martin; or they could try to convince a major free agent to take a slight pay cut in order to retain Lee (as Dwyane Wade, Lebron James and Chris Bosh did last year in order to allow the Miami Heat to re-sign Udonis Haslem). 

Remember, even if Lee is worth, say, $9 million per year, the Rockets could keep him at his $5.5 million cap hold figure while signing a superstar, and then re-sign Lee to the higher figure afterward.  Conversely, if Lee is only worth $4 million per year but the Rockets want to retain him, the Rockets would want to first sign Lee (thereby reducing his cap figure from $5.5 million down to $4 million or less) before signing any outside free agents. 

How the Rockets approach whether to retain Lee in the face of a potentially stellar 2012 free agent class is further complicated by recent changes to how qualifying offers can be made to restricted free agents.  Under the old CBA, teams could simply extend non-guaranteed qualifying offers in order to make a young player a restricted free agent, knowing that, if they later decided that they wanted to allocate that money elsewhere, they could simply unilaterally pull that offer off the table. 

Not anymore.  One of the bigger player victories in the CBA negotiations is that teams must now fully guarantee their qualifying offers. 

What this means for the Rockets is that, if they want to retain Lee’s rights as a restricted free agent, they must occupy a portion of their cap room with Lee’s $5.5 million cap hold by making a guaranteed qualifying offer that cannot be taken off the books without Lee’s consent (unless he first signs a contract with Houston or another team). 

If the Rockets do not make a qualifying offer to Lee (and thereby reduce their available cap room), then Lee will become an unrestricted free agent.  Given the widespread interest in Lee, though, I’m not sure the Rockets want to risk losing him without at least having the opportunity to match any reasonable offer. 

Another aspect of the new CBA is that certain young players who outperform their rookie deals will be entitled to larger qualifying offers.  Players who average 41 starts or 2,000 minutes played in the last two years of their rookie deals will be entitled to (a) if the player is drafted in the first round but outside of the lottery, the qualifying offer available to the #9 pick from that draft and (b) if the player is not drafted in the first round, the qualifying offer available to the #21 pick from the player’s draft class. 

Based on his production last season, if Lee starts in every game or plays heavy minutes this season (27.7 mpg if he plays in every game, with this threshold increasing for each game he misses), then his qualifying offer will presumably increase from $3.22 million (the offer available for his rookie scale slot) to $4.39 million (the offer available to the #9 pick in 2008). 

Conclusion
While the Rockets have afforded themselves the flexibility to sign a major free agent in 2011 if needed, the likely outcome of the next month or so will be that the Rockets largely sit out free agency and either make an early trade or two for a talent upgrade or sit tight for a later trade or to pursue free agents in 2012. 

There is no guarantee that the Rockets’ trade strategy will actually land them a superstar.  But it puts them in as good a position as (almost) any other team to do so. 

Flexibility is the key.  And Morey has that in spades right now.

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DISCLAIMER:  Please note that all views expressed on the new CBA are solely based on that certain Summary of Principal Deal Terms dated November 26, 2011 and distributed to the media by the NBA (the “League Memo”).  The League Memo is not a comprehensive collective bargaining agreement, does not address many key issues that may affect the new CBA and may be subject to change. 

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Podcast: Steven Adams, Mikal Bridges and Trade Possibilities for the Rockets

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Houston Rockets Trade Deadline 2024

The Houston Rockets already made one deal, acquiring center Steven Adams from Memphis for a handful of second-round picks, but we still have several days left before this Thursday’s NBA Trade Deadline.

Are more deals on the way?

Rumors of interest in Mikal Bridges have swirled, with the Rockets holding precious (and unprotected) first-round picks from Brooklyn. They also could use some help inside this season, which Adams can not provide. Shooting is always in demand.

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Adams trade, its impact on the Rockets in 2024-25 and beyond, the Mikal Bridges rumors, the Brooklyn picks, other trade possibilities and options for Rafael Stone moving forward. Also discussed is the play of Houston’s core 6 prospects: Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Tari Eason and Jalen Green.


CLUTCHFANS PODCAST: SPOTIFY | APPLE

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Rockets trade for center Steven Adams

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Steven Adams Houston Rockets

The Rockets made a surprise trade on Thursday, sending the contract of Victor Oladipo and three second-round picks to Memphis for center Steven Adams.

The deal came together quickly and the Rockets had a small window to get it done, hence why this trade was made with a week to go until the trade deadline.

The Price

When you consider that Memphis did this for cost savings primarily and that Adams would not play for any team in the league this season, the price seemed a little high to me. The Rockets gave up the OKC second-round pick this year, which is no big loss, but they also give up the better of Brooklyn’s or Golden State’s second-round pick this season. That’s a pretty good pick (likely in the late 30’s). They also give up the better of Houston’s or OKC’s second-round pick in 2025. If things go as planned for the Rockets, that pick should be in the 45-55 range.

But they didn’t sacrifice a first-round pick, which would have been brutal, and they were not going to use all those seconds this season. So it’s just a matter of opportunity cost — who else could they have gotten for this package?

My understanding is they (particularly Ime Udoka) are very high on Adams.

The Rockets also did this move for cap purposes as well. By moving out the Oladipo contract, which was expiring, and bringing in Adams’ deal, which is signed for $12.4M next season, the window for the Rockets to put together a trade package for a star player is extended out until the 2025 trade deadline. They continue to wait to see which players, if any, shake loose here and become available. They want flexible (see: expiring) contracts that they can combine with assets and this gives them another year to be in that position.

The Trade

It’s not often that the Rockets acquire a player I had not considered beforehand but that’s the case with Steven Adams. The Rockets sorely need a big with size that provides more traditional center strengths, making Clint Capela, Robert Williams, Nick Richards or Daniel Gafford potential candidates, but Adams was overlooked for a few reasons.

First, the 30-year old big man is out for the season after knee surgery cost him the entire 2023-24 campaign, so the Rockets won’t get any benefit from this trade this season. Secondly, Adams is not your traditional center either when it comes to rim protection.

But what Adams does do, he’s really good at and he has some of the same strengths of Brook Lopez, who the Rockets tried to sign in the offseason. Adams is quite possibly the strongest guy in the league and a legitimate 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He’s an outstanding screen-setter, something that could really benefit the likes of Fred VanVleet, Amen Thompson and Jalen Green. He was also an elite rebounder last season, finishing 6th in the league in caroms at 11.5 a game despite playing just 27.0 minutes a contest.

After watching Jonas Valanciunas absolutely bully the Rockets inside on Wednesday, it should be apparent by now to everyone that this was a pretty big need.

In 2021-22, the Memphis Grizzlies finished #2 in the West at 56-26. Their top two players in Net Rating that season were Dillon Brooks (+11.0) and Adams (+8.3), key cogs in a defense that held opponents to 108.6 points per 100 possessions. They’re both now Houston Rockets.

So this adds another trusted vet to Ime Udoka’s rotation.

The question is will the 30-year old Adams return to form after the knee injury? Adams sprained the posterior cruciate ligament in his right knee a year ago, which cost him the end of that season and the playoffs. He tried rehabbing it and it never got better, so surgery became the option just as this season was kicking off.

I like to think the Rockets did their due diligence on that, despite the short time it took for this deal to come together, but that’s unclear.

If he does bounce back, then Udoka has a big man he can turn to reliably in situational matchups or on nights when the younger bigs struggle. He wouldn’t be Boban or even Jock Landale in that scenario — he’s going to play, so the frontcourt depth in 2024-25 should be better. In the end, they got a starting-caliber center who will have no problems coming off the bench, and that’s what they were looking for.

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On the KPJ trade and future of the Rockets

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The Houston Rockets are back to being a professional NBA team once again.

The Rockets finally ended the Kevin Porter Jr. era on Tuesday, coughing up two second-round picks in order to unload his contract to the Oklahoma City Thunder, getting back the contract of Victor Oladipo and third-year forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. The move puts an end to a long investment and very rocky tenure with KPJ.

David Weiner joined Dave Hardisty on the ClutchFans podcast to discuss the Porter Jr. Experiment, the price paid to move him, Houston’s potential trade options moving forward, the new culture and the current state of the Rockets young core.

ClutchFans Podcast: On Apple | Spotify

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Heavy investment in Kevin Porter Jr raises serious questions about Rockets front office

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Kevin Porter Jr. Rafael Stone

Soon-to-be-ex Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr was arrested last week for allegedly assaulting his girlfriend, resulting in a fractured neck vertebra and a deep gash above her right eye after an attack at a hotel in New York. He allegedly woke her up by punching her repeatedly, strangled her and did not stop hitting her until she ran out of the hotel room screaming for help and covered in blood.

“This is a serious domestic violence case,” said assistant Manhattan district attorney Mirah Curzer.

First and foremost, I wish the victim healing. I don’t know what to say about the nightmare she went through. She and her family will forever be impacted. As for KPJ, if this is true, he doesn’t belong on the Rockets or in the NBA at all. He belongs in jail.

Secondly, this can’t be overlooked and just swept under the rug: Why did the Houston Rockets bank on and invest so heavily in this guy?

Kevin Porter Jr. being accused of crimes of this severity should not be shocking – at all. Before he even came to the Rockets, he had a long list of serious problems. He was suspended multiple times in high school. In 2019, he had a “conduct issue” significant enough that USC suspended the 5-star recruit indefinitely. He fell to the end of the first round of the 2019 NBA Draft because of his behavior liability. He was accused of punching a woman in the face in Cleveland. He also had a gun and marijuana charge later dismissed after getting into a car crash. He went into a tirade and got into a nasty confrontation with both the Cleveland coach and GM, resulting in the Cavs severing ties immediately and dumping him to the Rockets for nothing.

You could make the argument that initially giving Porter Jr. a second chance in Houston was praiseworthy, but the Rockets experienced KPJ’s anger management and immaturity issues firsthand on several occasions.

Former Rocket Austin Rivers said this week that this isn’t the first, second or even seventh issue with Porter Jr. and that Rockets “higher-ups” confided in him that they had no idea how to handle him.

“I remember talking to guys in the Houston Rockets organization, higher-ups, [and] they were having issues then,” said Rivers. “They were like, ‘We don’t know what to do with him.’ And that’s when he just got there from Cleveland!”

Porter Jr. was routinely a nightmare for Rockets coaches to deal with. On several occasions, he confronted and cussed out members of the coaching staff, saying they didn’t have the “credentials”, per source, a reference to the fact that him playing heavy minutes at point guard was a decision they did not control.

Once at a night out, Porter Jr. had a disagreement with a DJ over music choice and he snapped, smashing the DJ’s laptop to the floor. He needed to be restrained and removed. Rockets personnel and several of Porter’s teammates witnessed the incident.

Curzer also dropped a bombshell at the arraignment in saying that Porter Jr. has a history of abusing his girlfriend, who he had only been dating since early last year, his second season with the Rockets. Curzer specifically cited an incident in which KPJ allegedly rammed his car into hers.

There were dozens of maturity issues visible on the court to anyone paying attention. He refused to check out of games. He got into an argument on the bench with assistant Lionel Hollins. On numerous occasions, he would visibly shut down when he wasn’t passed the ball. I invite you to watch this video from a game against Memphis on March 20, 2022. Just listen to the Grizzlies broadcasters, particularly starting at the 1:40 mark, talk about what they are witnessing here:



Privately, people around the league would say they were baffled by the Rockets continued fascination with Porter Jr. Nobody could understand it.

That fascination starts with Rockets general manager Rafael Stone, who by every account over the last two years was the driving force behind the investment in Porter Jr. It has been no secret. Trading for him in January 2021 was seen by some with the team as his “Harden acquisition”, code for a signature move that makes an executive’s career, much in the way landing James Harden did for Daryl Morey in 2012.

For example, former Rockets head coach Stephen Silas never considered Porter Jr. to be a point guard, per sources — playing him there was a Stone mandate because the GM believed that is where his future lied.

John Wall also told us as much publicly when he explained the phone call he got from Silas about coming off the bench. He said Silas told him “This is what the GM wants,” adding again that Silas said, “Man, you don’t deserve that. You should be the starter. This is just what they want to do.” Wall was upset because he believed KPJ should have to earn the spot.

“I have a hard time finding anybody outside of the Rockets front office that believes that Kevin Porter Jr. is a starting point guard in the NBA,” said ESPN reporter Tim MacMahon in December.

There were plenty of warning signs about KPJ to the public too.

After Porter Jr. got into a heated argument in which KPJ “physically shoved” Rockets assistant coach John Lucas and quit on the team in the middle of a game against Denver in January of 2022, leaving the arena at halftime, Sports Illustrated’s Chris Mannix famously wrote that the Rockets should “Cut Porter Jr. Waive him. Release him. Whatever. Eat what’s left of the $1.8 million he’s owed this season and the $3.2 million he’s got next and move on.” It became a source of mockery for Porter Jr’s fans, a line they would bring up after each game he hit a few threes or handed out some assists.

In February of this year, ESPN’s Jonathan Givony, one of the most connected reporters in the league, flat out warned us that he was hearing awful things about the Rockets culture and locker room. He was blunt in what the Rockets needed to do — waive Kevin Porter Jr. outright and bring in a new coach and GM.

“Just cut him. That’s it,” said Givony of Porter Jr. “And you’re sending a signal to the league that we’re going to do things differently from here on out.”

“When you talk to people around the NBA about Houston, you just don’t hear good things about their culture, about that locker room. You talk to people that are on that team, and they are like, ‘We are a mess’,” said Givony. “Do people want to work with this organization? But you can change that fairly quickly if you come in, get rid of the bad apples and you change the coaching staff, and all of a sudden, you’re Houston. It’s the third-biggest city in America. There’s a history here of you actually being good.”

Porter came to the Rockets for “free” (in exchange for a top-55 protected second-round pick, which was designed not to convey), but he proved far from it as the Rockets continued to pour investment into him. Over the last 2-3 seasons, no Rockets player got more developmental capital than Porter Jr. – not Jalen Green, not Alperen Sengun, not Jabari Smith Jr. The Fertittas paid John Wall $85+ million over two years to sit at home so the team could groom Porter Jr. to be their future point guard.

Then they doubled down. With restricted free agency on the horizon and a seemingly non-existent market for KPJ’s services, the Rockets gave Porter Jr. an extension a year sooner – a contract that was presented as a four-year, $82.5 million deal. The deal was more team-friendly than that, putting team options in it after years 1 and 3. Going from the potential disaster that was initially reported to a deal they could escape after one season felt like a “win”, but the biggest question was why they wanted him long-term at all. The unprecedented nature of a contract that size with that kind of club control clearly showed the Rockets knew there was unique and significant risk here.

After KPJ signed the extension, The Athletic’s Kelly Iko summarized the Rockets view of Porter Jr. – “As has been [their] stance for months, the Rockets have maintained the notion that Porter is a priority and is considered a huge part of their core, along with Green and Jabari Smith Jr.”

The Rockets actions to kick off the 2022-23 season showed exactly that – that he was a priority. They benched Sengun to start the season, in large part to give KPJ a “lob threat” and defender in the starting lineup. They gave him the superstar “Harden Locker”. They introduced him last in the starting lineups. They treated him as the star and empowered him to be the self-proclaimed “Head Honcho” of Clutch City.

But the extension proved unwise and foolish. Porter Jr. never even made it to the first year of it. With over $80 million on the line, he snapped again. The Rockets signed him to one of the team-friendliest deals ever and still managed to both overcommit and overpay as Stone now scrambles to attach real assets to it to get another team to take it off his books.

Is it fair to question the judgment of the Rockets front office? Absolutely and without question. Whether you look at their ability to value character, evaluate risk, scout basketball, build culture, manage assets or allocate development resources, they failed at every level here. Why didn’t they act sooner? Why did they double down? Why didn’t they hold him accountable? Why did everybody in the league see it but them?

“We value the player and the person that [Kevin Porter Jr.] is becoming and are eager to invest in him and his journey,” said Stone after rewarding him with the extension less than a year ago.

The question you have to ask yourself now is, with all they knew and witnessed about Porter Jr. both on and off the court — why were they eager at all?

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Houston Rockets

Three predictions for an important Rockets offseason

The 2023 offseason is critical for the Houston Rockets and here’s what we think will happen

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Houston Rockets Stephen Silas Alperen Sengun Kevin Porter Jr

We have almost arrived to the oasis.

For over two years, the “2023 Offseason” has been circled on the calendar as the turning point, the time when the Houston Rockets will switch gears and make winning a priority. With potentially $60 million in cap room and a top draft pick coming, this is the moment of truth that Rafael Stone and the Rockets front office pitched to the Fertittas when the rebuild began.

Does that mean the Rockets are going to magically start winning next season? Not necessarily. But it does mean we won’t see Daishen Nix run the point for 36 minutes in the name of player development. They want to win.

It’s very tough to know what will happen this offseason, given the unknown variables. The Rockets could land a top-two pick, which would bring them Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, radically boosting their future. James Harden could opt to return, which also significantly boosts their near-term prospects.

But regardless of whether or not luck presents a “lifeboat” (Harden, Wemby, Scoot), here are some things I believe will happen.

Also, if you have been joining us in RocketsWatch all season, first of all, thank you! We greatly appreciate all the fan support this season. But if you’ve stuck around through a tough season, you know that none of this will come as a surprise. I have been talking about these predictions since January.

1. Rockets, Stephen Silas Will Part Ways

Stephen Silas is going to be let go this offseason.

The original plan was for Silas to coach this season and start the next, getting a shot once the Rockets were making winning their top priority. But the bar was low this season and he still fell short. There were several times where the team needed a stronger hand and it wasn’t there. The roster wasn’t built to win, but there is no argument to be made that coaching did anything to enhance the situation.

It’s important to point out that Silas got a raw deal, coming to Houston under different circumstances expecting to coach a veteran team. But this is the hand that was dealt and the Rockets have to play it. Silas may be a fine coach, but he’s not the right coach for this team and that’s all that matters at this stage.

Ownership was ready to move on by midseason, but a variety of factors have led to him finishing the year. But this is going to be it. They sorely need fresh eyes and a different voice.

Confidence Level: 100%

2. The Kevin Porter Jr. Starting Point Guard Experiment Will End

The Rockets got Kevin Porter Jr. for free from the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2021, but he’s been anything but since.

Houston paid nearly $100 million to John Wall to stay at home so they could groom KPJ as their future point guard. They also signed Porter Jr to a team-friendly four-year deal despite the fact that a much more team-friendly restricted free agency was on deck.

Porter Jr. has gotten better and more comfortable at the lead guard spot in two-plus seasons, which could bode well for his future here, but it’s not near enough. He lacks ability to make advanced reads, which is one of the reasons the Rockets are dead last in corner three-point attempts. His tendency is to isolate, which is his strength, and that can create a lot of selfish basketball. In essence, the Rockets have been starting a pair of shooting guards.

The Rockets love them some KPJ, particularly Stone, so I’m not saying he’s done here. He could thrive in an alternate role, if he embraces it. But the Rockets want to make a leap next season, the first year they are on the hook to Oklahoma City for their first-round pick from the costly Russell Westbrook trade. You’re probably not going to make a bigger jump than by improving the on-court leader spot.

Confidence Level: 80%

3. Alperen Şengün Will Be Shopped

You either believe Alperen Sengun is the next Nikola Jokic or he’s a defensive liability that is too much trouble to build around. There doesn’t seem to be much in between.

Sengun is incredibly gifted offensively and is only 20 years old, so it’s very early. This is also the biggest offseason of his young career, where he won’t be preparing for EuroBasket and can specifically train for the NBA.

There is no evidence at all they are looking to trade him. I’m very much going rogue with this prediction. But consider:

   1. Internally he has been viewed as possibly the worst pick-and-roll defensive big in the league.
   2. They started Bruno Fernando over him to open the season.
   3. They rarely run the offense through him (“ŞenHub”).
   4. The Rockets are not well-positioned with future draft picks to trade and likely need to move a good young player if they’re looking at any significant deals.
   5. They believe bringing in a center is a high priority (though that could be as a backup to Sengun).

To be clear, I’m not predicting Sengun will be dumped but rather we will hear his name floated in rumors. A lot could change — a new coach could see Alpi as key to the future, for example — but right now, given all the factors listed above, I would be surprised if Sengun is the centerpiece of this rebuild. I think he’s more likely the trade piece.

https://twitter.com/RocketsWatch/status/1627944952498950147?s=20

Confidence Level: 60%

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